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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #5,801
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:11am Oct 27, 2011 9:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
don't be sucked into a short without tight stops. I don't believe this bull run is over yet. It's just consolidating (profit taking)
Always look for a clear reversal pattern before committing shorts.
I hope it is not over. Cmon, buy some more and hit my ,415 order .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,802
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:11am Oct 27, 2011 9:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
don't be sucked into a short without tight stops. I don't believe this bull run is over yet. It's just consolidating (profit taking)
Always look for a clear reversal pattern before committing shorts.
Looked in 90 demo pips... left a trade running: current +35 pips

Pbh
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  • #5,803
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:15am Oct 27, 2011 9:15am
Hi all,
I am new to forex trading and have been doing alot of studying lately without risking much money. I mainly trade the EUR/USD due to its liquidity and low spreads. I have a great grasp of the technicals at present but i constantly keep finding myself at odds with the fundamentals. For instance today when the US GDP figures came out I would have instantly went long the USD but the exact opposite occured except on the USD/JPY. Can anyone explain to me the reason for this??? Is it because of the correlation with the S&P??
Also is there any website/book etc that I can study to try and get a better grasp of the fundamentals?

Cheers
Rsherl01
  • #5,804
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:16am Oct 27, 2011 9:16am
Euro Markets going nuts, up around 5%, dow up big, Euro up strong. It reminds me of when Roscoe P Coltrain would say to Boss Hogg, "GOOD NEWS! Good News! Boss, we got them Duke Boys!". But in the end, the Duke Boys always come out on top. Why? They had the better car, were better drivers, and were after hotter chicks.

Europe can party today like its 1999, but tomorrow, they will wake up to the white Dodge police cruiser they were driving the day before, only they will notice that flying through the air as they jumped the ramp was a lot of fun. But landing was a bitch. The US has better growth prospects, better long term debt positioning, and reserve currency status (for now). So Euro many not be a disaster today, but long term it is overvalued and that will start shining through soon.
  • #5,805
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:27am Oct 27, 2011 9:27am
So, 1.50 or 1.30, what do we see first? lol
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #5,806
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:29am Oct 27, 2011 9:29am
Quoting PipKiller
Uncle Sam spent 16 years training me to kill and 3 days teaching me to save... What do you think I'm better at....

I'm a retired Sergeant........ When did I get demoted to private..... Wait, I can't be demoted because.......
I'm retired
lol haha good laughs hah?

nice job on the longs
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,807
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:30am Oct 27, 2011 9:30am
Quoting PipTrapper
don't be sucked into a short without tight stops. I don't believe this bull run is over yet. It's just consolidating (profit taking)
Always look for a clear reversal pattern before committing shorts.
Pending home sales was only a hiccup. Hopium is ruling today. Probably see a little more proffit taking as europe closes.

Daily 200 sma is dead, 1.3995-1.4143 supply zone is dead, and she's just above daily resistance @ 1.4065.

Next up is 78.6% fib @ 1.4249 which is around the spike high from the swiss intervention and the bottom of the 1.4253 - 1.4550 supply zone on the weekly. Best supply zones above on daily start at 1.4502 with 2 levels stacked on each other. Lower level has been deeply penetrated and hit a couple times. I'd look for the 1.4582 - 1.4705 level to be hit first for a swing short off the daily.

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #5,808
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:32am Oct 27, 2011 9:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
don't be sucked into a short without tight stops. I don't believe this bull run is over yet. It's just consolidating (profit taking)
Always look for a clear reversal pattern before committing shorts.
I'm looking to short here. Thankfully, I got out of my short position in the Euro yesterday and am very happy I hedged with Aussie longs all along.
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Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #5,809
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:34am Oct 27, 2011 9:34am
Quoting bumapatria
lol haha good laughs hah?

nice job on the longs
It's always fun to trade a few jabs with you.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #5,810
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:39am Oct 27, 2011 9:39am
Guys I know you are all excited about this bullish trend, but there is Tom Zone Grade 1 C correction ressistance in the way at 1,415. No way we could get higher .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,811
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:40am Oct 27, 2011 9:40am
Update: Cycles on the planetary ones. we are going to be somewhere on a 3 year or 4 year dunno cycle pattern on 28. i think we are going to see a massive drop before november. im thinking around ~1000 pip drop.

just saying.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,812
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:41am Oct 27, 2011 9:41am
Short 1.4122 , stop 1.4223 ...if it break and stay above 1.4210 then for me it might can go to 1.4335
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Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #5,813
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:44am Oct 27, 2011 9:44am
What do you think of my chart? A short around 1.4390? The question marks is there because I want someone elses opinion and I'm quite new to this and want to know if my drawings are completely out the window or if they are in fact on the right track.
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  • #5,814
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:46am Oct 27, 2011 9:46am
Quoting bumapatria
Update: Cycles on the planetary ones. we are going ...
If I wont be lazy one the weekend (which may easily happen as I will be counting like moron), I will send you my cycles analysis. I have been exploring cycles for quite some time. Unfortunately, it is all just drawn on printed charts, and there goes my lazyness. I need to visit friend with scanner. Anyway, I found some very nice cycles here, but I am unable to draw them in mt4, since there are holes in timeseries there (weekends, closed days).

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,815
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:50am Oct 27, 2011 9:50am
Quoting JLinder
What do you think of my chart?
I find those trendlines nice, although I dont use this. I wouldnt trust that support though. Closing prices are better as suports, especially in such a long range. Thats just my opinion.

I have the very best advice to you. Dont you dare to trust to anyone here . Just learn, learn, learn, but base your trades only based on your own knowledge.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,816
  • Edited 10:08am Oct 27, 2011 9:53am | Edited 10:08am
My small position is really a test of if there are any bears willing to commit.
Institutions need a market big enough to enter without driving price as they get in. This is a selling opportunity for those who have Euro's to sell.
We are at volatility extremes on the 8 hour and all time frames lower. Price is parabolic on the shorter time frames.

Unless the Euro has been reevaluated at a higher level by the market.

So tight stop is in place, but enough room to handle some spike.
75.00 level usd index would be better support.
will exit quickly if price starts to run

edit exited
  • #5,817
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:57am Oct 27, 2011 9:57am
Quoting JLinder
What do you think of my chart? A short around 1.4390? The question marks is there because I want someone elses opinion and I'm quite new to this and want to know if my drawings are completely out the window or if they are in fact on the right track.
I think you've done a fine job drawing in the trend and support resistance line. The trade decision on when to jump in will have to be yours.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #5,818
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:58am Oct 27, 2011 9:58am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I find those trendlines nice, although I dont use this. I wouldnt trust that support though. Closing prices are better as suports, especially in such a long range. Thats just my opinion.

I have the very best advice to you. Dont you dare to trust to anyone here . Just learn, learn, learn, but base your trades only based on your own knowledge.

T.
Thank you for your opinions and advice =)
Are you not using trendlines at all? What type of cycles were you talking about before and on what timeframe?
  • #5,819
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:58am Oct 27, 2011 9:58am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
If I wont be lazy one the weekend (which may easily happen as I will be counting like moron), I will send you my cycles analysis. I have been exploring cycles for quite some time. Unfortunately, it is all just drawn on printed charts, and there goes my lazyness. I need to visit friend with scanner. Anyway, I found some very nice cycles here, but I am unable to draw them in mt4, since there are holes in timeseries there (weekends, closed days).

T.
my thread or pm please
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,820
  • Oct 27, 2011 10:01am Oct 27, 2011 10:01am
Quoting PipKiller
I think you've done a fine job drawing in the trend and support resistance line. The trade decision on when to jump in will have to be yours.
Thank you =)
Yeah, I know that I just want to know if anyone else is thinking the same and know how you are thinking because I'm trying to learn.
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