EurAnalysis | Page 262 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #5,221
  • Oct 26, 2011 6:50am Oct 26, 2011 6:50am
Quoting bumapatria
it looks like seller's heaven to me on gold.
If you like roller coaster rides (which I suspect you do coz if offers many trading opps), then Gold certainly is the "currency?" to trade. I expect a range between 1600 and 1700 areas for the next little while.

It's trench warfare out there. Keep your sights on the enemy. It won't be long before the bullets start flying.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,222
  • Oct 26, 2011 6:54am Oct 26, 2011 6:54am
lol hehee nice pipkiller.

yes PT, its really minor now that support im expecting drop to previous resistance 4000 points below. 1665.50.

euro will soon follow..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro will soon follow.gif Size: 36 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,223
  • Oct 26, 2011 6:56am Oct 26, 2011 6:56am
This activity does not fit anywhere in my trading strategy but does not mean I have not stuck a toe in when opportunity presents itself, extremely close technical action on lower TFs having to micro manage which is a tough way to trade imo. There is major pressure on the Daily to take a big break south, maybe the world is upside down and we will see balance return very soon.
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #5,224
  • Oct 26, 2011 6:58am Oct 26, 2011 6:58am
bears get ready..


Eu summit better be bad for those silly bulls.

gold is off and selling.

we are hellbound down if this stays that way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hellbound.gif Size: 36 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,225
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:03am Oct 26, 2011 7:03am
Looks like Greek bond holders get a 50% haircut.
No agreement yet about remaining 50%
Talks center on mix of EFSF Bonds, cash and other alternatives

Source: CNBC TV
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,226
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:06am Oct 26, 2011 7:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
Looks like Greek bond holders get a 50% haircut.
No agreement yet about remaining 50%
Talks center on mix of EFSF Bonds, cash and other alternatives

Source: CNBC TV
So it looks to me like their goal is to take Greece right out of the equation.
No Greece, No problem...

Hmmm What about Italy? Austerity measures aren't passed yet and Berlusconi may be resigning.

Ahh I see. Take out Greece so we can focus on Italy. Yeah that's smart
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,227
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:07am Oct 26, 2011 7:07am
at times like this of to the ouija board!

"dear spirit, where will euro be priced at at the end of october?"

the planchette moves slowly...

"1....0....0...0..."

no way...


"thank you dear spirit"
"anytime, i was a forex trader back when i was alive"
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,228
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:10am Oct 26, 2011 7:10am
Quoting PipTrapper
So it looks to me like their goal is to take Greece right out of the equation.
No Greece, No problem...

Hmmm What about Italy? Austerity measures aren't passed yet and Berlusconi may be resigning.

Ahh I see. Take out Greece so we can focus on Italy. Yeah that's smart
if that statement was released by Lagarde or Merkel or Sarkozy or CNBC numbnuts on cable TV, it would be our heaven PT, we can finally sell lol...
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,229
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:13am Oct 26, 2011 7:13am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper

Ahh I see. Take out Greece so we can focus on Italy. Yeah that's smart
Maybe it is easiest to tackle on problem at a time. By giving Greece a absolution they give a signal that everybody can have one. Let's start spending guys!

Anyway - what ever is a result of summit EURUSD should go down by my understanding, unless they really come out with good long term plan. Only possible thing which migth bull usd is raising emergency capital funds drastically.
  • #5,230
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:14am Oct 26, 2011 7:14am
Berlusconi Fails To Deliver Reform Plans On Time

BRUSSELS (MNI) – Italy’s Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi failed to
meet an agreed deadline for sending the European Commission the concrete
details of reform measures his government intends to implement, the
Commission said on Wednesday.
European Union leaders had demanded a letter from Berlusconi ahead
of the EU and Eurozone summits Wednesday evening, in the hope that it
would help reassure markets about Italy’s commitment to fiscal and
structural reforms, which are seen as crucial to restoring confidence in
the Eurozone’s third-largest economy and in Europe’s ability to halt the
spread of its sovereign debt crisis.
A spokesman for the Commission said that they now expected the
letter to arrive before the end of the day Wednesday.
“What we asked for is a list of concrete measures, very detailed,
along the lines that we’ve been discussing with Italy,” the spokesman
said.
The consequences of Berlusconi’s failure to keep his promise are
unclear but could create tension at the leaders’ summit tonight,
particularly with France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany’s
Chancellor Angel Merkel, who exchanged strong words with the Italian
Prime Minister at the EU summit in Brussels last weekend.
EU leaders are concerned that Italy, which has the highest
debt-to-GDP ratio in the Eurozone after Greece, and which has a poor
track record in sticking to promised reforms, is a weak link in the
bloc’s efforts to convince markets that Europe can restore confidence.
Confrontations in which EU leaders gang up on a single
underperforming country are likely to become more frequent as new
economic governance rules strengthen the role of peer pressure in
enforcing discipline.
EU and Eurozone leaders meeting in Brussels on Wednesday hope to
agree a multi-pronged strategy to restore market confidence in
government bond markets and financial institutions, which will include
leveraging the Eurozone’s bailout fund and a reworked debt restructuring
for Greece.
–Brussels Bureau: +324-9522-8374; [email protected]
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,231
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:18am Oct 26, 2011 7:18am
Quoting bumapatria
hi grand,

short on gold.
its at old time supply, and bulls slowing down rally, euro is at rising wedge, broken already, now accumulating, gold also in same risign wedge.

only reason people bought gold was some negativity on US release data on the consumer confidence. that gives confidence in buying gold as usual. the world reserve currency is actually gold. when something crasehs, buy gold. if it aint, buy dollar...
it looks like seller's heaven to me on gold.
You talk with a lot of authority for a 14 year chap.... Your short gold is certainly interesting TA wise but you maybe overseeing 1740.x if you are not tracking the daily and only the intraday Resistance....

On the FA part I don't really share your view. You can't leave Treasuries out of the equation since August and consumer confidence alone is rather too simplistic for that move. IMO, you may want to check your correlated markets and risk instruments to understand whats going on with gold...my 2 cents and GL in those shorts...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #5,232
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:29am Oct 26, 2011 7:29am
From what I understand through CNBC TV, the banks are being given till mid 2013 to recap themselves from the private sector. Until they reach the 9% Tier 1 capital requirement that is being imposed on them, they are not allowed to issue dividends to shareholders or give bonuses to executives. If by that time they do not manage to reach the 9% capital requirement, then they will be forced to accept recap from public funds. That means partial nationalization and interference from govs in bank's dealings... Not good for the banks or their shareholders at all.

So, it appears they have managed to kick the bank recap can down the road.

Once it is announced at the press conference (unless they change their minds between now and then), I wonder how the markets will react to it. I cannot see how this will be market positive for those banks that do not yet meet the 9% capital requirement.

Also, the bank recap issue is only one of three pillars to this plan, so I suppose everything depends on the final outcome of the other two. EFSF and Greece haircut.

Regardless of what they are leaking to the media now. The only results we can count on are the ones that are officially announced at the press conference, unless it is delayed again.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,233
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:31am Oct 26, 2011 7:31am
Durable goods orders for September -0.8%
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,234
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:33am Oct 26, 2011 7:33am
US core durable goods much better than expected

1.7% vs 0.5% expected
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #5,235
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:33am Oct 26, 2011 7:33am
and nothing happened. I kinda hope it would at least move 10 pips or something. oh well.
  • #5,236
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:37am Oct 26, 2011 7:37am
Quoting jeff_b
and nothing happened. I kinda hope it would at least move 10 pips or something. oh well.
you cannot ignore the transportation component.

The Core durable goods is only seen as good when both numbers come in positive.

Overall durable goods are down -0.8% so nobody cares if the core is up +1.7%
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,237
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:43am Oct 26, 2011 7:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
you cannot ignore the transportation component.

The Core durable goods is only seen as good when both numbers come in positive.

Overall durable goods are down -0.8% so nobody cares if the core is up +1.7%
actually, nobody cares about any numbers today until we hear what Europe has to say in their press conference later today.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,238
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:43am Oct 26, 2011 7:43am
When does the euro decouple from the S&P so that it can be fairly valued, this risk on in the market correlation has completely overvalued it given the current deteriorating economic conditions in Europe v. the US and the fact that the ECB will be lowering interest rates in the future. I think the Euro really wants to go down, but the stock markets want their year end rally so that the fund managers can all get their big bonus checks, and that's keep the Euro up. All my opinion.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #5,239
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:50am Oct 26, 2011 7:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
you cannot ignore the transportation component.

The Core durable goods is only seen as good when both numbers come in positive.

Overall durable goods are down -0.8% so nobody cares if the core is up +1.7%
Core is supposedly the higher impact of the 2. But you are right, all focus is on Summit and basicly ignoring earnings and such.

Highest impact I'm seeing is in the loonie like I posted earlier that I thought it was the path of least resistance for dollar dumping.

Go baby Go!!!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: can_60_update 1.jpg Size: 124 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: can_5.jpg Size: 124 KB
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #5,240
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:50am Oct 26, 2011 7:50am
According to a survey JPMorgan Chase & Co., Which was conducted among customers of the bank from September 28 to October 21, the average forecast of U.S. corporations means the euro / dollar at the end of 2011 at 1.29. At the end of 2012 - 1.32.
17 traders viewing now