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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #5,121
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:27pm Oct 25, 2011 2:27pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Where does Yellen live? I'll send her some cash to keep her mouth shut
One of many California liberal...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #5,122
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:34pm Oct 25, 2011 2:34pm
The bank runs in Greece have started

Greek Bank Run Getting Serious – Citizens Queue Up in Greek Banks

“I come here to immediately pick up my pension € 300. Who knows what else happened today. My money is safe only when it is at home” said Pensioners Evagelos Dimitros age 73.

The head of an Athens bank branch told BILD: “More and more Greeks who still have some money come to get it from the bank. In my office there are a total of 5,000 customers, 2,500 of which either have their money transferred abroad or hoard it at home. If this continues, there will soon be no more money.”
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,123
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:35pm Oct 25, 2011 2:35pm
Quoting Alorente
That´s because it is a strong resistance area formed by the high of 10/17 and the low of 7/12. It may not break it, but who knows what happens tomorrow after the announcement. If it comes down, it should start it today. We´ll see...
I wanted to point out that 12.7. as I focus at this date as well (I actually focus at 11.7., as I count closing prices and not lows, but thats not the point).

I stated several times, that I consider current cycle beeing 6.6.2010- till now (and I expect it finishes at the end of december, but lenght of cycles is very unpredictable).

This major cycle is divided into three midcycles 6.6.2010 - 7.1.2011, 7.1.2011 - 11.7.2011 and 11.7. till decembersomething.

So for me starting point of this midcycle is very important date. Mainly because of that lenght exploration, but exchange rate is very important as well.

11.7. daily close - 1,39622
12.7. daily low - 1,38366

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,124
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:38pm Oct 25, 2011 2:38pm
Quoting Alorente
Yeah, Janet Yellen, the Fed Vice Chair. A dovish liberal. Nobody pays any attention to her. The ones holding up the QE morons now are Fisher and Lacker. They won´t let it happen. I hope anyway.
It is always interesting to see how much data you stored in your knowledge database. Keep it coming, I really like that, and I am sure everyone else likes it as well.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,125
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:40pm Oct 25, 2011 2:40pm
we are at the lows of the day and the euro is still above 1.39, makes no sense.
  • #5,126
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:47pm Oct 25, 2011 2:47pm
Quoting greg2514
we are at the lows of the day and the euro is still above 1.39, makes no sense.
It is below the open price and still dropping.

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,127
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:50pm Oct 25, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting PipTrapper
The bank runs in Greece have started...
There is link to interesting article inside. From 19th of Oct, but I missed it. No shame for me, as I dont trade CHF, but anyway. 200 Bn flow to from Greek banks to Swiss is quite a lot.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,128
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:55pm Oct 25, 2011 2:55pm
Quoting PipTrapper
It is below the open price and still dropping.

.
If the dow was up 200 we would be over 1.40 today. I know the dollar is weak, but it still makes no sense.
  • #5,129
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:59pm Oct 25, 2011 2:59pm
Tomorrow Break Down Key Poin would be located @ 1.3848
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #5,130
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:01pm Oct 25, 2011 3:01pm
Seems US QE babbling awakend gold bulls (and silver too, as these two always follow each other). Maybe we will see both EUR and USD dropping (therefore keeping ranging price) and appreciationg gold? Well, we will know everything tomorrow. I am going to set up a sell limit on 1.40, and maybe even one lower, so I don't miss. If EURUSD isn't going to fall at least a 100 pips tomorrow, then it means I really need to work on my anlysis and should go back to demo, so I either win big or die trying.
  • #5,131
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:01pm Oct 25, 2011 3:01pm
Quoting greg2514
If the dow was up 200 we would be over 1.40 today. I know the dollar is weak, but it still makes no sense.
There is a rumor out there for the last 2 weeks, I don't know if it makes any sense, but apparently, some major French banks have been selling all their dollar denominated assets and dumping dollars on the market which has caused the massive euro and stock market short squeezes which have led to the best month in DOW history. I think we will see Euro weakness during the Asian markets as they follow the US market decline down.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #5,132
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:03pm Oct 25, 2011 3:03pm
I just love when my supports work. I wish I were a scalper and not lurker.

I expect one more retest of that turqouise line. If broken, 38811 is teh next stop.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,133
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:11pm Oct 25, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting Pipsforall
There is a rumor out there for the last 2 weeks, I don't know if it makes any sense, but apparently, some major French banks have been selling all their dollar denominated assets and dumping dollars on the market which has caused the massive euro and stock market short squeezes which have led to the best month in DOW history. I think we will see Euro weakness during the Asian markets as they follow the US market decline down.
It seems the euro only correlates to the dow and s & p on way up. On way down there is some correlation but not as much. If there was a 200 point gain on the dow euro would be up 150-200, today it went down 200 and it dropped 30-40.

I read the same thing about the french banks. My guess is all the talk about the fed printing has scared people away from the dollar to the yen and gold.
  • #5,134
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:12pm Oct 25, 2011 3:12pm
Quoting greg2514
It seems the euro only correlates to the dow and s & p on way up. On way down there is some correlation but not as much. If there was a 200 point gain on the dow euro would be up 150-200, today it went down 200 and it dropped 30-40.

I read the same thing about the french banks. My guess is all the talk about the fed printing has scared people away from the dollar to the yen and gold.
... and oil
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,135
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:13pm Oct 25, 2011 3:13pm
Quoting Pipsforall
There is a rumor out there for the last 2 weeks, I don't know if it makes any sense, but apparently, some major French banks have been selling all their dollar denominated assets and dumping dollars on the market which has caused the massive euro and stock market short squeezes which have led to the best month in DOW history. I think we will see Euro weakness during the Asian markets as they follow the US market decline down.
I can't post the link but it was reported on Dow Jones that many of the Euro banks were trying to position themselves for recapitalization, and that as a result, they were buying Euros to put on their balance sheets after they sold assets. That these banks getting ahead on recapitalization and not short covering or other fundamental factors is what has been driving the Euro up.
  • #5,136
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:15pm Oct 25, 2011 3:15pm
Quoting ntrprz
...
That these banks getting ahead on recapitalization and not short covering or other fundamental factors is what has been driving the Euro up.
Shields Up?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,137
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:16pm Oct 25, 2011 3:16pm
Twenty, twenty, twenty-four hours to go…
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #5,138
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:17pm Oct 25, 2011 3:17pm
To sum up, lets conclude that there is vast amount of reasons for EUR to be propelled up, but they will run up eventually and then speculators positions will make the rest.
  • #5,139
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:20pm Oct 25, 2011 3:20pm
Quoting PipTrapper
... and oil
It kills me that the feds want to print to help the economy. By printing the price of oil goes up. This hurts the economy and cause growth to slow down.
  • #5,140
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:26pm Oct 25, 2011 3:26pm
Quoting greg2514
It kills me that the feds want to print to help the economy. By printing the price of oil goes up. This hurts the economy and cause growth to slow down.
This should dampen the Euro a bit...

Italy Fails to Pass Crucial Austerity Measures

Just one day before a summit of the Eurozone leaders where it is expected the details of the second attempt to save Greece will be finalized, Italy has announced it is unable to reach a consensus regarding its own austerity requirements. Among the measures rejected by Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s much-divided coalition government was a bid to raise the retirement age from 65 to 67 years of age.

It is not clear yet how EU leaders will respond to Italy’s failure on this front, but for now, there are greater worries.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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