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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #5,041
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:59am Oct 25, 2011 7:59am
Quoting foto
PK it may be ugly but it looks as if it is breaking down.
I am still in, so what am looking for is that it sells easier then buys at this level.

Bears may be frontrunning the 1.40 level
If we don't make it to 1.40 area, I will start shorting on pullback after we break and hold below 1.38
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,042
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:02am Oct 25, 2011 8:02am
Quoting PipKiller
Boy it's an ugly looking pair.

Lets look at some highlights for the last few days.
What a nice overview. I am with you especially in this part: Let her collect stops.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,043
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:03am Oct 25, 2011 8:03am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Weeeell, in that case this cushion can never be used and is totally useless. Everytime they experience any default thay have to take loss from the cushion and they will need bailout everytime? No way. If there is a case when there is a need to use Basel cushion, they need to recapitalize it themselves. Morover, there could be a very easy solution to this (and I am quite sure it will be written somwhere in basel rules). While you need to use a cushion, you have some time to make a new one. That is not immediate process and they can and should fill...
Yes absolutely the banks will recap themselves. The banks will not be bailed out. The bailout is only a term but what it is actually is the gov buying capital in the bank if the bank is not able to raise it in the private sector.

And as foto put it, it is only a way of conducting a cya (cover your ass-ets) exercise.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,044
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:15am Oct 25, 2011 8:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes absolutely the banks will recap themselves. The banks will not be bailed out. The bailout is only a term but what it is actually is the gov buying capital in the bank if the bank is not able to raise it in the private sector.

And as foto put it, it is only a way of conducting a cya (cover your ass-ets) exercise.
Which again takes us to liquidity issue as they will not be able to raise capital themselves as they will be all recapitalizing.

I like the way we are heading, so lets move it a bit further before the bell in 15 mins.

So you have these banks who are trying to fill again 8% cushion and have no place where to take money. Is the best solution to raise cushion to 9%? Hell no, thats one of the worst solutions. The easiest way I see is just to give more time to banks to recapitalize themselves. BNP has @8 Bn profit a year, so it can take like two full years of profit or ten years of slow recapitalization. I would rather let BNP cut 10% of their profit every year than to tax all Europe and dampen consumer spending.

EDIT: Btw, I didnt count the case that they could actually sell some of their assets and fill it instantly.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,045
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:16am Oct 25, 2011 8:16am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
We have worked with such strategies for years now and it is quite difficult to find a working and stable one. Only really working robot is based on contra trading and grid where lot increases in grid. Pure price action strategy. It currently makes some 2-4% for invested capital a day which can be declared a good result. That is also levered by balance which makes average 50% a month. With really tight settings I got that robot to make 170% a month but it was really risky and unstable - I wouldn't have a good night sleep with such settings.

We have our own trading platform, so we are not using EA:s to handle strategies - it is central server which analyses different situations, so I'm not quite sure if this is something you can do with EA.

For security reasons I cannot give you more details in this, but for starters it is good to have base where to start looking for.

Good luck with that.
  • #5,046
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:17am Oct 25, 2011 8:17am
Quoting foto
PK it may be ugly but it looks as if it is breaking down.
I am still in, so what am looking for is that it sells easier then buys at this level.

Bears may be frontrunning the 1.40 level
I agree that's a very good possibility She still hasn't broken out of the ascending triangle I drew on the 60 earlier this morning though or broken the recent low on the 60. But futures are starting to turn a little south too so who really knows which way she'll go.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 60_1.jpg Size: 127 KB
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #5,047
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:24am Oct 25, 2011 8:24am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader

EDIT: Btw, I didnt count the case that they could actually sell some of their assets and fill it instantly.

T.
I agree that they shold recap themselves from the private sector and not from govs or EFSF, but that is how they are doing it. Our discussion how what they should do is not going to change things.

As for your comment I quoted above, selling assets only provides cash liquidity. It does not increase their capital. Actually in this market environment, selling a 1 billion euro asset might only yield 800 million so that would reduce their capital.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,048
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:26am Oct 25, 2011 8:26am
Quoting PipKiller
I agree that's a very good possibility She still hasn't broken out of the ascending triangle I drew on the 60 earlier this morning though or broken the recent low on the 60. But futures are starting to turn a little south too so who really knows which way she'll go.

Attachment
Ascending triangles usually break out to the downside and the target is usually the bottom of the triangle for a double bottom at minimum.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,049
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:27am Oct 25, 2011 8:27am
PK,
I use the Bollinger band with 2.5 std. deviarion on the 20 sma for volatility
The hourly envelope is sideways, but it is contained well.
Thought for a moment there it was going to break south.
So far whoever has been pushing this pair higher has been successful.

But that also implies a value distortion, and an overvalued pair is a good short. If the market has been lifted into the institutional sell zone, upside is limited and downside is large.

All we have are our assumptions.

edit: USD/CAD is just ripping this morning from parity so something is going on
  • #5,050
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:33am Oct 25, 2011 8:33am
I'm OK with identifying patterns but not good with which way they go LOL. which is why I trade price looking for a retracement of whichever way something breaks.

This might be to blame for the last surge up that got slam dunked to the bottom of the triangle again.

Reuters: German govt and main opposition parties agree on joint motion for EFSF leverage
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #5,051
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:34am Oct 25, 2011 8:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
I agree that they shold recap themselves from the private sector and not from govs or EFSF, but that is how they are doing it. Our discussion how what they should do is not going to change things.
Dont fade my Maltian friend, someone can hear us and tell others. Words have power, and however little is ours, it can grow and flourish if we take care.

Quoting PipTrapper
As for your comment I quoted above, selling assets only provides cash liquidity. It does not increase their capital. Actually in this market environment, selling a 1 billion euro asset might only yield 800 million so that would reduce their capital.
Yea, but liquidity is the problem here. They have loads of capital, they are rich basstards, they just dont have cash right now, when they need it.

T

DingDing, spike up my lady, would you?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,052
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:34am Oct 25, 2011 8:34am
Quoting foto
PK,
I use the Bollinger band with 2.5 std. deviarion on the 20 sma for volatility
The hourly envelope is sideways, but it is contained well.
Thought for a moment there it was going to break south.
So far whoever has been pushing this pair higher has been successful.

But that also implies a value distortion, and an overvalued pair is a good short. If the market has been lifted into the institutional sell zone, upside is limited and downside is large.

All we have are our assumptions.
I also use the BBs. Mine are set up a bit different. I have 2 - one with a 2 sd and one with a 3 sd. Instead of the 20 I use 12.

In ranging markets hits off the bands are a good entry for the opposite band. Makes it possible to take quite a few pips out of a tight market.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #5,053
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:36am Oct 25, 2011 8:36am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Dont fade my Maltian friend, someone can hear us and tell others. Words have power, and however little is ours, it can grow and flourish if we take care.



Yea, but liquidity is the problem here. They have loads of capital, they are rich basstards, they just dont have cash right now, when they need it.

T

DingDing, spike up my lady, would you?
haha fair enough. Let's spread the word.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,054
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:41am Oct 25, 2011 8:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
Ascending triangles usually break out to the downside and the target is usually the bottom of the triangle for a double bottom at minimum.
I'd say it is more like thick ascending wedge. The patterns I call ascending triangles have one border flat (horizontal) and the price keeps being rejected on similar level, until it comes to a moment when there is no rejection and price breaks upwards, or a rejection breaks the triangle downward. But, ascending wedges are even more bearish.
  • #5,055
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:49am Oct 25, 2011 8:49am
Quoting Blobik
I'd say it is more like thick ascending wedge. The patterns I call ascending triangles have one border flat (horizontal) and the price keeps being rejected on similar level, until it comes to a moment when there is no rejection and price breaks upwards, or a rejection breaks the triangle downward. But, ascending wedges are even more bearish.

Whoops. Any way you slice it, it's toast. This lady just slipped and fell.

Bagged 75 pips $cad +4% for the day. See if she'll dip so I step in again. My 1% per day goal almost met for entire week.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #5,056
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:56am Oct 25, 2011 8:56am
Hello SPZD,
Lost the internet a few minutes ago.
I agree with your take. I also added a second band at 3.5 std It helps with the visual and when it gets that far out it is generally exhaustion.
  • #5,057
  • Oct 25, 2011 9:03am Oct 25, 2011 9:03am
Quoting foto
Hello SPZD,
Lost the internet a few minutes ago.
I agree with your take. I also added a second band at 3.5 std It helps with the visual and when it gets that far out it is generally exhaustion.
Yes, more often than not, when it hits that second outer band that is a good indication to go the other way. It's not an automatic entry, works best if the bands are more flatlined.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #5,058
  • Oct 25, 2011 9:04am Oct 25, 2011 9:04am
Hmm, look at FF news. Looks like talking-forex rumour fest! There will be summit, but there will be no summit. Politician yes, FM's no. EFSF will be leveraged, but it will not. This statement is true, because it is false. EUR will rise to 1.30 soon, and then fall back to the 1.45.

... and lot more!

ADD: Hmm, US data pretty red today. Will it raise QE fears or cause risk - off?
  • #5,059
  • Oct 25, 2011 9:08am Oct 25, 2011 9:08am
Quoting PipKiller
Whoops. Any way you slice it, it's toast. This lady just slipped and fell.

Bagged 75 pips $cad +4% for the day. See if she'll dip so I step in again. My 1% per day goal almost met for entire week.
I've been scalping the M1 chart and I've made a 5% return today alone. I'm starting to love this scalping game... until I get burned
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,060
  • Oct 25, 2011 9:11am Oct 25, 2011 9:11am
Ouch US consumer confidence missed big time. 39.8 vs 46.1 expected.

That's gonna leave a mark on risk.

Risk OFF.

Just scooped another 35 from $cad and a very quick 20 from A$ +6.6% in the piggy bank today. Weekly goal met



Word on the street that middle eastern names are the buyers on every dip.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
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