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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #5,021
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:04am Oct 25, 2011 7:04am
Quoting mla


I am going to vouch you for this, mate.

mla
Thanks mla. I am honored Sir
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,022
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:04am Oct 25, 2011 7:04am
"simplistic fundamentalist view of things"
One should be able to write the macro on the back of a napkin.

Otherwise the Grey Fog will envelope you
  • #5,023
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:08am Oct 25, 2011 7:08am
Quoting foto
"simplistic fundamentalist view of things"
One should be able to write the macro on the back of a napkin.

Otherwise the Grey Fog will envelope you
Exactly
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,024
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:12am Oct 25, 2011 7:12am
Quoting knoholygrail
.
Overall sentiments, though, were supported by more talk of QE3. New York Fed Dudley, also a vice chairman of FOMC, said yesterday that Fed has clearly indicated the interest in supporting the mortgage markets and "could potentially do more in that direction." That's seen as a sign of support, or at least being open, to the idea of buying more mortgage backed securities And more explicitly, Dudley explained that "It's possible we can do another round of quantitative easing."
I am starting to feel like this is the real story, and the EU crisis is just a side show.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #5,025
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:16am Oct 25, 2011 7:16am
I think maybe this applies to TA as well.
If one cannot figure out what is going on, bring a chart up on the screen and walk to the other side of the room.
Then ask, what am I seeing?
  • #5,026
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:18am Oct 25, 2011 7:18am
Quoting PipTrapper
There is also the sovereign contagion effect. If Greece gets a haircut, then Italy and Spain may want the same relief, which I am sure they will pursue at some point.
I aint talking about haircut. I say: Bank has a mandatory cushion of 8% of its capital. If it completely deletes Greek bonds (100% haircut), it only affects 0,5% of its assets. So no additional cushion is necessarry. No change of rules is necessarry. Basel II cushion was implemented exactly for case of such a default.
After bonds are written off, then we can talk about Italy and Spain default. You want to default, send your economy 10 years backwards and be unable to borrow from anyone for next 20 years? Go ahead.

Quoting PipTrapper
Many of the bank's assets are made up of derivatives of sovereign debt, such as holdings in or loans to other banks/insurance companies/investment firms who also hold sovereign bonds, etc.
That is a good question. How many of banks assets are made of those derivatives. 0,5% are bonds itself. I strongly doubt those derivatives will be more. Would be nice to know, but there is near zero probability it will be more than 1%. BNP could have 5Bn in bonds, but could a single bank have 20 more Bn in derivatives, while cumulative debt is 270 Bn? I dont know, but I dont thinks so.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,027
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:20am Oct 25, 2011 7:20am
Waiting for the Euro to do something meaningful, I decided to pass my time test scalping the M1 charts.

I am doing it with a series of Bollinger bands at different periods, using the premise that when price extends beyond the 2nd deviation for 2 or more long momentum candles, price will inevitably gravitate back towards the 2nd deviation envelope.

I am new at this so I am using an old FXDD account I once had that still had $97.57 left in it after I withdrew my funds to transfer to another broker.

So far I have taken two trades of 0.01 lots each.

On one trade I made 21 cents and on the other I lost 9 cents (due to slippage)
So I am up 12 cents for a total balance of $97.69 WooHoo Profit

Once I get a good profitable system going (time permitting) I will publish the strategy along with my results.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,028
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:24am Oct 25, 2011 7:24am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
That is a good question. How many of banks assets are made of those derivatives. 0,5% are bonds itself. I strongly doubt those derivatives will be more. Would be nice to know, but there is near zero probability it will be more than 1%. BNP could have 5Bn in bonds, but could a single bank have 20 more Bn in derivatives, while cumulative debt is 270 Bn? I dont know, but I dont thinks so.

T.
Well there you go then. 9% - 8% requirement = 1% difference. So with 9%, if they take a 1% loss, then they still meet basel requirements.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,029
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:25am Oct 25, 2011 7:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
Waiting for the Euro to do something meaningful, I decided to pass my time test scalping the M1 charts.

I am doing it with a series of Bollinger bands at different periods, using the premise that when price extends beyond the 2nd deviation for 2 or more long momentum candles, price will inevitably gravitate back towards the 2nd deviation envelope.

I am new at this so I am using an old FXDD account I once had that still had $97.57 left in it after I withdrew my funds to transfer to another broker.

So far I have taken two trades of 0.01 lots each.

On...
Sounds like you are going long... good luck with that. Why don't you target a bit more than 2 pips?

I played around with something like this. What I found was that I go clobbered when a higher TF movement kicked in.

why not wait for the pull back, and then target the earlier low? This way you have the trend behind you instead of against you.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #5,030
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:29am Oct 25, 2011 7:29am
Tom,
I am only trying to be helpful here. But ask yourself do you really think those guys making decisions know what is going on?

The prepared explanations are to cover Butts.

Nobody could possibly understand or analyze all the intricate details. Decisions are made upon principles. Then whatever fallout occurs, blame cannot be abscribed for impropriety.
  • #5,031
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:32am Oct 25, 2011 7:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well there you go then. 9% - 8% requirement = 1% difference. So with 9%, if they take a 1% loss, then they still meet basel requirements.
Nono, other way around. They already have cushion of 8%. If they default 0,5% of greek bonds + 1% for derivatives, they still have 6,5% of cushion left for Spain etc.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,032
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:36am Oct 25, 2011 7:36am
Quoting AaronWard
Sounds like you are going long... good luck with that. Why don't you target a bit more than 2 pips?

I played around with something like this. What I found was that I go clobbered when a higher TF movement kicked in.

why not wait for the pull back, and then target the earlier low? This way you have the trend behind you instead of against you.
I am doing it in order to find a scalping strategy that I might be able to incorporate in an ea. Something that can make money while I sleep.
Obviously I will need to find a broker with fixed spreads and a stop level at or under 2 pips.
FXDD will obviously not do but it gives me some training in a worst case scenario.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,033
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:38am Oct 25, 2011 7:38am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Nono, other way around. They already have cushion of 8%. If they default 0,5% of greek bonds + 1% for derivatives, they still have 6,5% of cushion left for Spain etc.

T.
yes but at 6.5% they will no longer meet requirements. They will need to recapitalize.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,034
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:42am Oct 25, 2011 7:42am
Boy it's an ugly looking pair.

Lets look at some highlights for the last few days.

- JP Morgan recommended E$ buy to 1.4060
- Markets rallying on pure hopium for ze final solution and talks of QE3
- France bows to German thinking.
- Geman parliment has basicly final say.
- Greek haircut now expected 50-60%
- Supply zone it's currently in on the 240 is getting weaker and weaker as she make higher and higher highs
- Market chatter of stops above 1.3060 and 1.3070 and you know she likes to collect them.
- Backdoor QE propping up euro banking and the euro.
- price is into 200 ema and 200 sma close.
- 61.8 fib is at 1.4013.
- big round phycological #1.4000 coming up... and she isn't respecting anything these days.
- this european summit is probably more closely watched then the NFP report now.



Trade idea. Let her collect the stop above current levels and open the door. Short daily supply zone above 1.4 near the 61.8 fib with stops above JP morgans 1.4060 long exit. I don't know if it's a good plan, but it's a plan

Me personally... I ain't touching this pair today. I'm long $CAD @.9996 as it just slammed into a strong fresh weekly demand zone

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #5,035
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:42am Oct 25, 2011 7:42am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
Once I get a good profitable system going (time permitting) I will publish the strategy along with my results.
I find scalping quite easy, though I'm using much bigger lots.

Just follow wave and channel pattern to decide when new wave begins. Enter and set TP according to last wave - fib is quite good to see next close. Always do by the trend - not contra, unless you have balance to enter fixing trade below. Contra works though but you must prepare to wait and you have to use leveraging lot to cover possible losses. Anyway contrastrategy in long run produces less profit and is more risky.

That's it - put feather in to your hair and start scalping your enemy

Edit: Nerves of kindergarden teacher are also good...
  • #5,036
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:45am Oct 25, 2011 7:45am
Quoting foto
Tom,
I am only trying to be helpful here. But ask yourself do you really think those guys making decisions know what is going on?

The prepared explanations are to cover Butts.

Nobody could possibly understand or analyze all the intricate details. Decisions are made upon principles. Then whatever fallout occurs, blame cannot be abscribed for impropriety.
Hehe, not at all. I know they are only incompetent bastards who care only to be elected. But as an economist, I need to analyze what are they doing and eventually find holes in their statements. And I see an emental right now.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,037
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:47am Oct 25, 2011 7:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
I am doing it in order to find a scalping strategy that I might be able to incorporate in an ea. Something that can make money while I sleep.
Obviously I will need to find a broker with fixed spreads and a stop level at or under 2 pips.
FXDD will obviously not do but it gives me some training in a worst case scenario.
get existing EA's slap them on your MT4 and back test them. It will be a lot faster.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #5,038
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:52am Oct 25, 2011 7:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
yes but at 6.5% they will no longer meet requirements. They will need to recapitalize.
Weeeell, in that case this cushion can never be used and is totally useless. Everytime they experience any default thay have to take loss from the cushion and they will need bailout everytime? No way. If there is a case when there is a need to use Basel cushion, they need to recapitalize it themselves. Morover, there could be a very easy solution to this (and I am quite sure it will be written somwhere in basel rules). While you need to use a cushion, you have some time to make a new one. That is not immediate process and they can and should fill the cushion from their own money.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,039
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:54am Oct 25, 2011 7:54am
PK it may be ugly but it looks as if it is breaking down.
I am still in, so what am looking for is that it sells easier then buys at this level.

Bears may be frontrunning the 1.40 level
  • #5,040
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:55am Oct 25, 2011 7:55am
Quoting AaronWard
get existing EA's slap them on your MT4 and back test them. It will be a lot faster.
That takes the fun out of it.

I make my own sandwiches. Buying one from the deli counter is a lot faster.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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