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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #4,981
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:48am Oct 25, 2011 3:48am
Quoting AaronWard
I find channels are one of the most important tools....
I agree on their importance. I am just unable to draw em in MT4.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,982
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:53am Oct 25, 2011 3:53am
Quoting Smart man
Last week was highly developed an,,
I would like to examine it but, eeehh, what are those green and blue rates?

T

edit: Ah, Got that. Multiple EURUSD charts in one. Clever thingie.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,983
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:56am Oct 25, 2011 3:56am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Lol Blobik you lazy lazy man.
One of my teachers used to say, laziness is sign of intelligence Well, I was just curious if they plan exact hour to make a statement, but seems my info is correct that there is no such hour. Since I can't be glued to TV on Wednesday... Then sell limit seems the only option I will have to meditate today and make mind up whether to set one or not, and how high should it be.

And I have no idea why I messed up GMT+1 and +2 - you are right, it is still +2 yet...
  • #4,984
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:57am Oct 25, 2011 3:57am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I would like to examine it but, eeehh, what are those green and blue rates?
T
Oh, sorry I have not explained to what kind of graphics.
Every last week marked its own color and superimposed on each other. This week - blue. If you notice the left is a histogram - a profile of the volume of each week.
  • #4,985
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:58am Oct 25, 2011 3:58am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I agree on their importance. I am just unable to draw em in MT4.
two trend lines will do the trick...maybe we are talking about something different. This is the channel I was following this morning.
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,986
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:00am Oct 25, 2011 4:00am
Btw guys, while talking about those trendlines, This peak is creating exponential trendline. Try to connect lows of top of this trend.

H1 timeframe - GMT +1
18.10. - 1600
20.10. - 1800
21.10. - 1000
24.10 - 1200
25.10 - 0800

And when does exponential trendline appear? At the peak of the bubble. Which is short term bullish bubble here.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,987
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:04am Oct 25, 2011 4:04am
If you look at the cluster profile interval of 5 minutes. You will notice that at high prices have entered a big deal over 500 contracts. This level is worth noting 1.3932 - 1.3933. While this level will not be overcome - the purchase will be dangerous in the day. Most likely not open until the U.S. markets.
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  • #4,988
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:05am Oct 25, 2011 4:05am
This is specifically directed at Tom and Aaron but obviously for everybody's consumption.

These are the patterns that I have observed over my many years of trading so take it for what it is... my observations.

Look at any chart and you will see swing highs and swing lows. Follow along on that chart as you read this and you will see what I mean.

I will use an uptrend for my example so find a nice uptrend on a H1 chart

1. Find a major breakout of a swing high that forms a higher high
2. Watch what price does after the breakout is exhausted.
3. It forms a new swing high which is higher than the previous high and then price retraces downwards.
4. The next swing low almost always reaches or falls below the previous swing high that was broken.
5. The exception to the above is when you have an extremely strong unrelenting trend, but it still eventually comes back. It could be days but it does come back to retest that breakout from the other end 99% of the time.

You can use the above to your advantage while trading the waves in a well behaved chart.
In confluence with other indicators such as 50ema, 200ema, 38.2%, 50% & 61.8 fibo lines, Intraday S/R etc, when price makes a retrace downwards on an uptrend, enter a buy order when it reaches at or very close to the previously broken swing high. If you enter your buy at that point, and you are wrong, you will have an opportunity to close the trade in profit or a very small loss on the next swing whilst still allowing price some breathing room instead of setting tight stops and losing the max every time.

I hope this post will be of help to many traders. However, please do not go ahead and use it in your trading style until you have tested it for yourself and see value in it.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,989
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:12am Oct 25, 2011 4:12am
Morgan Stanley - recommends buying the euro against the U.S. dollar to 1.4060

But I'm not sure
  • #4,990
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:17am Oct 25, 2011 4:17am
Quote
Morgan Stanley Recommends Buying
yep, they said that yesterday. I say they eat that B/S, and let traders trade

im sure all us can trade without recommendations of buys and sells.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #4,991
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:20am Oct 25, 2011 4:20am
Quoting Smart man
Morgan Stanley - recommends buying the euro against the U.S. dollar to 1.4060

But I'm not sure
well then I would say wait till price hits 1.4050/4060 and then sell. But I doubt it will go that high. Maybe 1.4010.. MAYBE
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,992
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:20am Oct 25, 2011 4:20am
Quoting bumapatria
yep, they said that yesterday. I say they eat that B/S, and let traders trade

im sure all us can trade without recommendations of buys and sells.
I do not listen to them, just interesting to see the recommendations of the MS
  • #4,993
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:22am Oct 25, 2011 4:22am
Quoting PipTrapper
This is specifically directed at Tom and Aaron but obviously for everybody's consumption.

These are the patterns that I have observed over my many years of trading so take it for what it is... my observations.

Look at any chart and you will see swing highs and swing lows. Follow along on that chart as you read this and you will see what I mean.

I will use an uptrend for my example so find a nice uptrend on a H1 chart

1. Find a major breakout of a swing high that forms a higher high
2. Watch what price does after the breakout is exhausted.
3....
PT -- Many thanks. This is one of the key things I am currently focused on learning. A few days ago I came across an excellent thread that develops the idea of S/R breakout/pullback in my quests to figure out how you pick your entries.

it is:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=206723

You might want to have a look at it and see if it is the sort of thing to add to your resource page.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,994
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:29am Oct 25, 2011 4:29am
I made one example. It is not as precise as I would like to, as there are no exponential lines in MS paint. What a surprise. Anyway I did my best in painting it and here is an example of descending quadratic trendline combined with exponential pressure of bulls, which clearly defined breakpoint.

Btw, I dont use these things, I just draw it for fun as I like to view things from different angles.

T.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,995
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:30am Oct 25, 2011 4:30am
The market is empty - just
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  • #4,996
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:43am Oct 25, 2011 4:43am
Quoting Smart man
Last week was highly developed and now formed a strong level of 1.3725 - 1.3803. I painted it on the chart. This is the level of the past two weeks, which is actively traded players. I think that if the next few days will be a correction, then this band will keep the bulls. That is what will a good buy for us.

I also noted several second ranges. This is - 1.3575 - 1.3643 1.3899 and - 1.3932. Now the market is trading below the previous volume, if after a few days - the bulls do not overcome these prices, I think we'll see a correction....
Last week I would say 1,366 is bottom level for the bulls. And it remains strong support. Now I am waiting for similar levels like you. I expect retest of 1,4 (something like 1,398 - 99) and then correction to zone you defined as bullish support (3725 - 3803). I personally set this zone a little bit (80 pips) more up to (3792 - 3880). And after next correction up, I will be loading shorts if bulls show any sign of weakness.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,997
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:47am Oct 25, 2011 4:47am
Quoting AaronWard
PT -- Many thanks. This is one of the key things I am currently focused on learning. A few days ago I came across an excellent thread that develops the idea of S/R breakout/pullback in my quests to figure out how you pick your entries.

it is:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=206723

You might want to have a look at it and see if it is the sort of thing to add to your resource page.
This is part of the basis of my style ->> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post3236616
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,998
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:47am Oct 25, 2011 4:47am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Last week I would say 1,366 is bottom level for the bulls. And it remains strong support. Now I am waiting for similar levels like you. I expect retest of 1,4 (something like 1,398 - 99) and then correction to zone you defined as bullish support (3725 - 3803). I personally set this zone a little bit (80 pips) more up to (3792 - 3880). And after next correction up, I will be loading shorts if bulls show any sign of weakness.

T.
The same thought, I'm going to play today for a fall. But I think it will be after the opening of U.S. markets.
  • #4,999
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:50am Oct 25, 2011 4:50am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
My opinion according tomorrow is that EURUSD price will go down whatever the decision is. Lets face it:
1. If Greece loans are not cut at all - causes crises to continue and is not good for economics of EUROArea. Result is lack of confidence to Eurobonds, banks cannot sell them and price goes down.

2. If Greece loans are cut only little: Does not solve problem in Greece economic situation = Lack of confidence to future of EURO, ECB will suffer and price goes down.

3. If Greece loans are cut 60% (which is declared as a effective solution) Greece will save it's behind, but either banks will pay, investors will pay, ECB will have to pay or EU will have to pay losses which will cause economics of EUR area to suffer and price goes down.

If summit doesn't give any new solutions, which I seriously doubt, EURUSD will go bearish. Now real question is: how fast is drop and how far before markets will calm down again.

I'm running a couple of robots along my traditional trading and I'm going to shut them down in all accounts for tomorrow and trust my own instincts in this.
  • #5,000
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:55am Oct 25, 2011 4:55am
Quoting Smart man
The same thought, I'm going to play today for a fall. But I think it will be after the opening of U.S. markets.
More likely after an announcement from tomorrow's EU summit. For today I see caution. No big buyers and no big sellers.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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