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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #4,841
  • Oct 24, 2011 6:54am Oct 24, 2011 6:54am
Quoting FXMindset
ur words have a big influence sir,,especially your avatar..Looks cute and full of charisma
Well, Iīm not sure about my avatar looking cute. Itīs just little olīme, without any Photoshop retouching...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,842
  • Oct 24, 2011 6:57am Oct 24, 2011 6:57am
Quoting foto
AW,
As traders it is too easy to get caught up in the moment. We all like to be right.
My hat is off to those who can make TA work as it eliminates a large amount of emotional biases that come up deciphering Fundies.
Well, to be honest with you, I couldnīt care less if Iīm right or not, as long as I make a profit. And the bigger the better.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,843
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:00am Oct 24, 2011 7:00am
Alorente,
Any which way you can
edit: You sound as if you are discretionary, mechanical system traders would beat themselves up.
  • #4,844
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:02am Oct 24, 2011 7:02am
Quoting PipTrapper
In hindsight that was an excellent decision, but I agree that it was a very risky trade to take.
I have found a pattern that repeats more often than not. I think I understand why this happens. To start my comments on this look at where EUR/USD was this morning at 1:45 AM EST. On my Oanda 15 Minute charts it was 1.3882and then it rose to 1.3839 by 2:00 AM EST. From there it moved down to 1.3822 at 6:45 AM. The high and low on my FXCM UK platform shows as 1.39552 and 1.38208.

The pattern will most likely repeat between 6:45 AM and 9:30 AM.

This pattern is not always there however it is regular enough that good profits can be made by being aware of it. I will expand on my thoughts after you can observe this pattern. It in my opinion has to do with the large retail trader's out there.
  • #4,845
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:08am Oct 24, 2011 7:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
In hindsight that was an excellent decision, but I agree that it was a very risky trade to take.
It was risky, but if you put it in the context of the Box System I use with the position in a separate account, itīs not as risky as it sounds. I went from 5% to 9% of my Forex capital in this position. Even if the whole world went against me and I lost it, it wonīt leave a big mark.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,846
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:10am Oct 24, 2011 7:10am
Quoting Alorente
It was risky, but if you put it in the context of the Box System I use with the position in a separate account, itīs not as risky as it sounds. I went from 5% to 9% of my Forex capital in this position. Even if the whole world went against me and I lost it, it wonīt leave a big mark.
very true
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,847
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:19am Oct 24, 2011 7:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
very true
You can learn TA well, follow the news, study the fundamentals, but I believe that to be a successful trader, there are 2 things you MUST do without fail:

1) Be a firm believer of Murphyīs Law.

2) Check in your ego at the door.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,848
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:21am Oct 24, 2011 7:21am
Quoting knoholygrail
I have found a pattern that repeats more often than not. I think I understand why this happens. To start my comments on this look at where EUR/USD was this morning at 1:45 AM EST. On my Oanda 15 Minute charts it was 1.3882and then it rose to 1.3839 by 2:00 AM EST. From there it moved down to 1.3822 at 6:45 AM. The high and low on my FXCM UK platform shows as 1.39552 and 1.38208.

The pattern will most likely repeat between 6:45 AM and 9:30 AM.

This pattern is not always there however it is regular enough that good profits can be made by being...

Hi Granddad, and hi everyone else. i am back from my break, i had a lot going through my head then, and the timespan in between was a good reevaluation and re-assessment of myself. i apologize to any members and friends in which i have offended unintentionally here.

Speaking of the euro/usd, its respecting cyclical patterns so far. try this, use a moving average shifted 90 periods forward, wth the length of 90 periods. here is an example. so basically what it means is that its possible turn of price in that usual time. i will use basic bar counts on the daily for this one. its basic circular cycles meaning we take attention in important angles (bar counts from a swing high or swing low) like 45, 90, 180, 270, 360 and the ones in between like 12.5, etc.

1st chart is a normal bar count, second one is the one with the peaks and valleys of the movign average, and ignore the master chart (the star looking diamond shape). do realize that its shifted 90 periods forward, and the rectangles show the peaks and valleys of the moving average. When price gets there, we see whats going on really.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cycles explained.gif Size: 32 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily chart.gif Size: 37 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #4,849
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:27am Oct 24, 2011 7:27am
Quoting foto
That mans ego is so colossal, to claim that he knows the reason for the cause of the Great Depression and therefore knows the solution to ending the economic cycle defies gravity.
Bernanke thinks his policies can produce summer forever. So if he liquifies the provisions (savings) he can generate neverending growth. All he is producing is famine.
I dare to disagree. I aint saying Bernankes solution is the best one. And I am kinda glad he took it on US shoulders instead of European. I know, thats kinda associal. But I think US is able to deal with inflation, unlike Europe. When inflation striked Europe in 30s, arising patriotism of states brought Hitler to power. When inflation strikes US, their patriotism only slows world growth, but US citizens will survive as the nation has enough resources to stand on its own. Bernanke blames central bankers and politicians of 30s for their unability to act. They didnt act, as they feared they could make more damage than positive. And because they didnt act, we experienced World War. Bernanke doesnt think he can provide neverending summer. He is just trying to learn from the past. I dont say his way is the best one, but crucial times need bold actions. And I am glad he is doing what he is doing. If it wasnt for him, we would slump to recession at 2008.

EDIT: Btw, as some already stated here, inflation in US doesnt even necessarry have to occur.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,850
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:29am Oct 24, 2011 7:29am
Quoting bumapatria
Hi Granddad, and hi everyone else. i am back from my break, i had a lot going through my head then, and the timespan in between was a good reevaluation and re-assessment of myself. i apologize to any members and friends in which i have offended unintentionally here.

Speaking of the euro/usd, its respecting cyclical patterns so far. try this, use a moving average shifted 90 periods forward, wth the length of 90 periods. here is an example. so basically what it means is that its possible turn of price in that usual time. i will use basic bar counts...
Welcome back my little bro
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #4,851
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:35am Oct 24, 2011 7:35am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I dare to disagree. I aint saying Bernankes solution is the best one. And I am kinda glad he took it on US shoulders instead of European. I know, thats kinda associal. But I think US is able to deal with inflation, unlike Europe. When inflation striked Europe in 30s, arising patriotism of states brought Hitler to power. When inflation strikes US, their patriotism only slows world growth, but US citizens will survive as the nation has enough resources to stand on its own. Bernanke blames central bankers and politicians of 30s for their unability...
You say: I think US is able to deal with inflation.

I would prefer to say: Volcker was able to deal with inflation. I donīt think nowadays, with the thin skinned politicians in Washington who are only worried about their reelection, the US would effectively deal with inflation. What Bernanke is doing is easy. Print, print, print away... In the short term, that hurts noone, but the long term damage of his actions will be there for generations to come.

Also, donīt forget that it was Bernanke who raised interest rates at the first signs of the Sub Prime crisis while saying that the Sub Prime problem would be short lived.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,852
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:38am Oct 24, 2011 7:38am
Tom,
Am not going to pursue this at this time of day.
But consider this. Not too many years ago, people believed in savings as the fail safe for when times got hard.

They would not eat the seed corn as they knew that without seed there would be no further crops.

Money printing is eating the seed corn of the general public. The problem is not that there is not enough money as Bernanke believes, the problem is we have entered an economic winter. The economic cycle will play out no matter what the Central Bakers want or think.

They will extend the price of winter by ruining the savings and wealth created during the economic summer season which has come to its end.

My opinion.
  • #4,853
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:39am Oct 24, 2011 7:39am
Quoting bumapatria
Hi Granddad, and hi everyone else. i am back from my break, i had a lot going through my head then, and the timespan in between was a good reevaluation and re-assessment of myself. i apologize to any members and friends in which i have offended unintentionally here.

Speaking of the euro/usd, its respecting cyclical patterns so far. try this, use a moving average shifted 90 periods forward, wth the length of 90 periods. here is an example. so basically what it means is that its possible turn of price in that usual time. i will use basic bar counts...
It is so nice to see you post again. I think you can be a big help here concerning my observations by use of your excellent charts. I am going into town now so I will be away from the computer for awhile. I will go into more detail from a fundamental pyschological point of view why these patterns repeat.

Thanks for your help and nice to see you back.
  • #4,854
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:43am Oct 24, 2011 7:43am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I would find more corrupt issues here. I spilled some hate already so I will try to calm myself down.
T
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
. Bernanke doesnt think he can provide neverending summer. He is just trying to learn from the past. I dont say his way is the best one, but crucial times need bold actions. And I am glad he is doing what he is doing. If it wasnt for him, we would slump to recession at 2008.

T.
Tom I a agree with your fist post.

On BB I have the opposite view. IMO, BB (and FED in general)has been by FAR the worse CB among the majors since 2007. Only the size and monetary policy capacity of the US is allowing to ride this relatively unharmed.

He(and the FED) has been in the chasing side of reality, always in the wrong side in hope mode until is too late and overshoot in policy to the other extreme when economic reality has already changed again. In simple words, putting out fires instead of preventing problems and/or doing a proper CB job in times of crisis which is KEEP it's independence from politics ans especially avoid taking an action every-time short term the DJ break a S/R...pathetic...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #4,855
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:50am Oct 24, 2011 7:50am
Quoting sisse
Tom I a agree with your fist post.

On BB I have the opposite view. IMO, BB (and FED in general)has been by FAR the worse CB among the majors since 2007. Only the size and monetary policy capacity of the US is allowing to ride this relatively unharmed.

He(and the FED) has been in the chasing side of reality, always in the wrong side in hope mode until is too late and overshoot in policy to the other extreme when economic reality has already changed again. In simple words, putting out fires instead of preventing problems and/or doing a proper...
I completely agree...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,856
  • Edited 8:11am Oct 24, 2011 8:00am | Edited 8:11am
Quoting Alorente
Also, donīt forget that it was Bernanke who raised interest rates at the first signs of the Sub Prime crisis while saying that the Sub Prime problem would be short lived.
Well about that Volcker, I dont know that much. Just the fact he stood behind Dodd frank act, which lessens volatility. Dunno about the inflation part.

Regarding sub prime crisis. I didnt know he raised rates there either. In fact I thought he lowered rates? Didnt he lower rates so Mexicans and other low income population could get mortgages? I thought that was what he did. Set benchmark for other banks by settin too low interest rates, which in fact resulted in mortgage crisis 2008.

That was a bad move indeed, but since you are talking about raising rates, I may have holes in US history. Will be glad if you expanded on this sub prime crisis subject.

Quoting foto
...Money printing is eating the seed corn of the general public. The problem is not that there is not enough money as Bernanke believes, the problem is we have entered an economic winter. The economic cycle will play out no matter what the Central Bakers want or think.
True indeed. I agree with you. I think Bernanke is trying to prolong summer and winter may be rough. But I see revolution ahead of us. I am just hoping that within these actions, we will somehow experience revolution without a bloodshed which would be brought by winter. I learned some about cycles and Berrys 90 year long economic cycle was supposed to finish at early 2009. Then there should be recession, or revolution. I just hope this revolution could be more peacefull this way.

Edit: Hmhm, I just realized Berrys cycles are 30 years long and 90 years are I think Kondratev. There are Kitchin, Juglar, Berry and Kondratev cycles. I still confuse these guys, but nevertheless 2009 recession could be seen long ahead.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,857
  • Oct 24, 2011 8:06am Oct 24, 2011 8:06am
Hmm, I come back to non-proxy internet zone, and see that we stalled exactly where we were. Weird. We got a false upward break (through 1.39) and a false downward break (through 1.385). Or maybe these were just bounces off some levels that remain invisible to me. (If anyone sees the R/S levels different, please let me know). Right now I am waiting for one of the extremes to start looking for a good entry. I start look for shorting opportunities, but cautiously. When(or If) I see 1.40 level holding then I will be glad to short the EUR with confidence. If I see it breaking somehow, then I will look for long on pullback. (Hope I don't get fooled by another fake break!).

And, one interesting thing, its London session but we didn't move to far in any direction. Usually if price is to make a big move, then it moves in London, eventually NY beginning. So, If we don't get strong move ant NY open, then we start the struggle that Aaron mentioned (perhaps). And perhaps third time in a row a bunch of doji candles will get followed by heavy drop.

Hey, I noticed that suddenly in FF calendar appeared position "ECB President Trichet Speaking" - was he scheduled for today...? I didn't know about that.
  • #4,858
  • Oct 24, 2011 8:15am Oct 24, 2011 8:15am
Bernanke is dealing with the US debt. The game plan is to place the US debt in low interest long term bonds, and then unlease the dogs of inflation. He has to be careful. If he pulls the trigger too early, the interest rates on the US government bonds will completely wipe out the Federal budget. Clever, crafty and dangerous. Possibly evil. But it might work.

As for inflation... well, you can never lower somebody's income. So if you want to make an American worker competitive with a Chinese worker, you dont touch his nominal income, but you crash his buying power with inflation. Soon an hour of labor in America buys as much real stuff as an hour of labor in China. Hey presto, the US worker is competitive on the global market.

Needless to say, I am bearish on the USD over the long haul.

(sorry PT, I couldnt help myself. I will resist next time.)
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,859
  • Oct 24, 2011 8:17am Oct 24, 2011 8:17am
NY soon starts, I dont want to fill thread with 50 years or 90 years cycles mumbo jumbo. I have those studies at home, I will post em out of main trading hours. I agree with you guys those actions can do more harm than good, but everyone can stand and watch the world burn. There surely is a recession and I surely dont see the way out. Monetization of sovereign debt is proven by history as a very bad solution leading to protekcionism. Thats why it is forbidden in EU. But, well, US prosperred since 70s, partially because gold standard was broken and they were printing money. Yea, now economy is overheaten and it may not help anymore. But it could work. I dont want another revolution here.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,860
  • Oct 24, 2011 8:23am Oct 24, 2011 8:23am
Quoting AaronWard
Bernanke is dealing with the US debt. The game plan is to place the US debt in low interest long term bonds, and then unlease the dogs of inflation. He has to be careful. If he pulls the trigger too early, the interest rates on the US government bonds will completely wipe out the Federal budget. Clever, crafty and dangerous. Possibly evil. But it might work.

As for inflation... well, you can never lower somebody's income. So if you want to make an American worker competitive with a Chinese worker, you dont touch his nominal income, but you...
well usd debt is i humongous $120 trillion plus debt, (if i am not wrong) which i find to be quite large. bond buying has interests, and i wonder how they are going to do so, with a possible depreciating greenback? i just trade the markets, but a seeing to possible eventualities is possible such as this. the world is in @#!~ its the matter of choosing the one currency in which is not in as much !#~@ as the other one.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
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