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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #4,781
  • Oct 24, 2011 3:58am Oct 24, 2011 3:58am
Quoting Alorente
Here is more support for the short case. On the Daily S&P, which has been moving in tandem with the Euro in recent months, we see that price touched the 61% Fib level and was repelled quickly. The Trix is also coming out of an Extreme Overbought condition and a SELL signal is about to be given as the Fast Trix is getting ready to cross the Slow Trix. Lastly, the RSI is rolling over at the 61 level which has been the ttop for the S&P daily RSI since the drop started on July 22nd.

There are too many factors lining up like ducks in a row here supporting...
Hey, what about the big one... Greek default of 60% is now in the open and the French and the Germans are having issues about how to spend their rainy day fund... which is just not enough.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,782
  • Oct 24, 2011 3:59am Oct 24, 2011 3:59am
Hmm. If we break below 1.3846 I think selling on pullback may be a good opportunity. How do you think?
  • #4,783
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:03am Oct 24, 2011 4:03am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes AaronWard and I just pointed that out.
Also I am still looking at very strong bearish divergence on my daily chart.

.
PT, what´s that MA in yellow I see on your daily Euro chart? Price is testing it right now.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,784
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:07am Oct 24, 2011 4:07am
Quoting Blobik
Hmm. If we break below 1.3846 I think selling on pullback may be a good opportunity. How do you think?
Euro is about to rebound now as indicated by divergences on the THV 5min chart. It will probably bounce to 1.3875/80. If it stops there, that would be a good short entry in my view.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,785
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:08am Oct 24, 2011 4:08am
Quoting Blobik
Hmm. If we break below 1.3846 I think selling on pullback may be a good opportunity. How do you think?
Between now and Wednesday I expect volatility. Once Mer-k-ozy announce that they still have nothing in the "fix the euro" toolbox save and except a rotten banana, the poop will hit the fan.

Besides my vague statement above, I must point out that the EFSF is only €440 Billion and cannot be expanded. Therefore I fail to see how with that amount of money they will be able to capitalize the banks, provide 20% first line insurance on toxic bonds and provide loans to sovereigns that cannot access the primary market.
Obviously the ECB has a role to play here but there books are already overweight with toxic assets. How much longer can they continue to loan money to failing banks and sovereigns without firing up the printing press? The answer is simple. They cannot go much further and the northern EZ members states (especially Germany) will not allow them to print.
The only way I see out of this is to bite the bullet and take a major haircut on Greek debt and hope the other periphery states don't expect the same.
It's enough to make me shake my head...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,786
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:09am Oct 24, 2011 4:09am
You might also want to look at the May 5 high of 1.49+ Yet one more example of a number of days of indecision followed by a fake breakout followed by collapse.

Hard to say for sure. Usually there is a fight before she dies... but maybe that was last week.
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,787
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:10am Oct 24, 2011 4:10am
Quoting Alorente
PT, what´s that MA in yellow I see on your daily Euro chart? Price is testing it right now.
That is the 200 ema
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,788
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:10am Oct 24, 2011 4:10am
Quoting Alorente
Euro is about to rebound now as indicated by divergences on the THV 5min chart. It will probably bounce to 1.3875/80. If it stops there, that would be a good short entry in my view.
Newbie trader thanks for tips You are right it seems to be going back up right now. I we get a lower high, then....

BTW, Aaron, lots of orders...
  • #4,789
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:14am Oct 24, 2011 4:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
Between now and Wednesday I expect volatility. Once Mer-k-ozy announce that they still have nothing in the "fix the euro" toolbox save and except a rotten banana, the poop will hit the fan.

Besides my vague statement above, I must point out that the EFSF is only €440 Billion and cannot be expanded. Therefore I fail to see how with that amount of money they will be able to capitalize the banks, provide 20% first line insurance on toxic bonds and provide loans to sovereigns that cannot access the primary market.
Obviously the ECB has a role to...
They seem to be approaching papa China now for money. If you were China, would you buy perifery sovereign debt to do Merkozy a favor? I have been to China 16 times, have many friends there. From what I know about them, I doubt they want to play in that sandbox.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,790
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:17am Oct 24, 2011 4:17am
If I remember correctly about the same thing happened at 1.49. Faked break above 4H resistance (to suck in retail) and then a rejection at 1.4925 (something) after days of indecision. Then smack down 1000 PIPS in 15 to 20 days

Quoting AaronWard
This is exactly what happened at 1.45

Anyway, the 5 min chart looks like fun for the avowed bear.

EDIT: the 4 hour candle that is currently forming is just about as bearish as they get. But, of course, still time to reverse.
  • #4,791
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:19am Oct 24, 2011 4:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
That is the 200 ema
How come yours looks so smooth and straight? Mine is full of bumps and waggles. Do you have MT4. If I can get mine to look like that, I´ll change my 200SMA to your 200EMA.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,792
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:20am Oct 24, 2011 4:20am
Quoting Alorente
They seem to be approaching papa China now for money. If you were China, would you buy perifery sovereign debt to do Merkozy a favor? I have been to China 16 times, have many friends there. From what I know about them, I doubt they want to play in that sandbox.
In my experience, China will say anything to keep its markets buying from them.
China says they will invest in Europe but I will bet you that their investments will go to the UK and Hungary and not to any of the EMU member states.
China will certainly not buy toxic sovereign bonds, nor will they put money in a fund that is designed to buy any such toxic debt. China wants profit and they know how to get it. This is not one of them. If China appears to be interested, then the herds will have confidence again. That is good for China because they are already heavily invested in Europe. However it does not mean that they will throw in more money... especially not in a bailout fund.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,793
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:21am Oct 24, 2011 4:21am
I guess I'd prefer to se false break above 1.40 as I would be more eager to short there, but if this 1.39 was a false break then I stand ready.
  • #4,794
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:23am Oct 24, 2011 4:23am
Quoting Alorente
How come yours looks so smooth and straight? Mine is full of bumps and waggles. Do you have MT4. If I can get mine to look like that, I´ll change my 200SMA to your 200EMA.
Yes I use mt4. MA is 200 Exponential on close
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,795
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:25am Oct 24, 2011 4:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
In my experience, China will say anything to keep its markets buying from them.
China says they will invest in Europe but I will bet you that their investments will go to the UK and Hungary and not to any of the EMU member states.
China will certainly not buy toxic sovereign bonds, nor will they put money in a fund that is designed to buy any such toxic debt. China wants profit and they know how to get it. This is not one of them. If China appears to be interested, then the herds will have confidence again. That is good for China because they are...
I couldn´t agree more.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,796
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:29am Oct 24, 2011 4:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
In my experience, China will say anything to keep its markets buying from them.
China says they will invest in Europe but I will bet you that their investments will go to the UK and Hungary and not to any of the EMU member states.
China will certainly not buy toxic sovereign bonds, nor will they put money in a fund that is designed to buy any such toxic debt. China wants profit and they know how to get it. This is not one of them. If China appears to be interested, then the herds will have confidence again. That is good for China because they are...
My impression is that China offered them a deal a couple months ago. They refused and the Chinese took it off the table.

Now though, even if the Chinese choose to deal (they may by toxic debt for the right incentive... namely protection from the USA's protectionist policies) why don't they wait until the Euro is just a little bit cheaper so their USD will go farther.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,797
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:30am Oct 24, 2011 4:30am
Yours looks a lot better than mine. I wish I could get it to look like that. I am very picky about my indicators. Here is how my 200 ema on close looks:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd d1.jpg Size: 128 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,798
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:32am Oct 24, 2011 4:32am
Quoting AaronWard
My impression is that China offered them a deal a couple months ago. They refused and the Chinese took it off the table.

Now though, even if the Chinese choose to deal (they may by toxic debt for the right incentive... namely protection from the USA's protectionist policies) why don't they wait until the Euro is just a little bit cheaper so their USD will go farther.
good point.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,799
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:32am Oct 24, 2011 4:32am
Quoting Blobik
I guess I'd prefer to se false break above 1.40 as I would be more eager to short there, but if this 1.39 was a false break then I stand ready.
It looks like the euro rebound won´t even make it to the 1.3870 level I expected. It looks pretty weak here. We´ll see...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,800
  • Oct 24, 2011 4:34am Oct 24, 2011 4:34am
Quoting Alorente
Yours looks a lot better than mine. I wish I could get it to look like that. I am very picky about my indicators. Here is how my 200 ema on close looks:
It looks the same as mine. Perhaps mine appears to be smoother because I have thickened the line to 2 points instead of the standard 1 point.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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