USD/JPY Discussion | Page 1418 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #28,341
  • Oct 23, 2011 5:54am Oct 23, 2011 5:54am
Compared to July, five regions in Japan have improved economically, while four have not changed substantially. Compare that to the USA, where only a few states have improved their economic situation. There are only two regions that are losing jobs, compared to the US, still with a 9.1% unemployment rate.

Japan is also fighting a strong Yen with a few strategies.

  1. Subsidize Manufacturing
  2. Borrowing More Money
  3. Sell Foreign Currency for Yen

By subsidizing manufacturing, Japan is trying to increase employment and Foreign Direct Investment. In the short run, this strategy might work. If these programs continue into the medium run, this will strengthen the Yen.

BOJs borrowing more money is mostly for reconstruction purposes. It should strengthen the Yen, until its promises to its citizens can no longer be kept.

By selling foreign currency, the BOJ is attempting to influence the Forex market directly. While this will have some marginal effect, it will not be enough to keep the Yen down.

The best thing weaken the Yen would be if Europe had some sort of sustainable plan to deal with the sovereign debt crisis.

Here are links to the information I used

BOJ results
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/brp/rer/rer111020.htm/

What the Japanese gov is doing about a strong Yen
http://www.forexpros.com/fundamental...bsidies-102884

  • #28,342
  • Oct 23, 2011 7:18am Oct 23, 2011 7:18am
Quoting FXMindset
Everything is possible mate even 50..150 also possible

So much so saying, well let's let the market decide and do trade with care all
trade safe
  • #28,343
  • Oct 23, 2011 8:34am Oct 23, 2011 8:34am
Quoting forexpr0
Japan is also fighting a strong Yen with a few strategies.
[*]Subsidize Manufacturing[*]Borrowing More Money[*]Sell Foreign Currency for Yen

By subsidizing manufacturing, Japan is trying to increase employment and Foreign Direct Investment. In the short run, this strategy might work. If these programs continue into the medium run, this will strengthen the Yen.

BOJs borrowing more money is mostly for reconstruction purposes. It should strengthen the Yen, until its promises to its citizens can no longer be kept.

By selling foreign...
Non of the points mentioned has worked, not even short term.
Except if you consider 3 days as short term that is ;-)

As far as the EU is concerned, expecting them to do all the hard work is more than naive. Moreover, it would not help the usd/jpy pair that much because of:

- structural weakness of the US economy
- possible QE3

High time that Japan stops playing the 'Calimero' game. Blaming others for the mess you're in ain't gonna help. Don't just complain but act !
  • #28,344
  • Oct 23, 2011 8:34am Oct 23, 2011 8:34am
sounds dramatic from wall street journal. Market "braces" for intervention.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj
  • #28,345
  • Oct 23, 2011 11:31am Oct 23, 2011 11:31am
Nothing is going to happen. USD/JPY will gradually start the downward move at the Asian open, the market will be watching BOJ response when JPY market is open. If BOJ does not act then there is a green light till then next day JPY open to accelerate yen gain. BOJ is watching hopelessly as Yen appreciates. They cannot act as there is a mental lag & block on the part of BOJ
  • #28,346
  • Edited 12:08pm Oct 23, 2011 11:40am | Edited 12:08pm
What do you mean mental lag? Maybe they are just patient, and will strike when least suspected. Kind of how they did pearl harbor. Japanese mentality. Well, corrected ... BOJ was criticized for announcing their target (thus partly explaining why last intervention failed --gave the speculators a concrete place to attack). This time they might be more mysterious about it.

They have serious pressure to act. Therefore, one cannot conclude that they will not act. There were strong words on Saturday from Azumi, that they intend to intervene. On Friday the government passed additional trillions available for intervention. They have prepared the G20 by explaining their position, that the strong Yen is hurting them. Finally, they have warned Europe that Yen will depreciate if they fix their house. So we have the whole set up for major intervention here. No intervention if Europe okay, but if Europe drags, watch out!

I'd say it would be dumb to go long Yen. If anything, stay neutral.

Just my view though :-)

I would just add that everyone says BOJ are unable to lower value of Yen. Well if that is true, then how did the USA lower the value of USD? Or how did Switzerland lower value of CHF? It is not true. With the political will, they can trash the Yen to zero. Would not take that much to trigger panic out of Yen if they really wanted it. But they want something in between ... strong, but not killing them strong. That's why they are going at it incrementally.

Finally, Capital Economics ... major economic think tank in London, continues to stick to the view that Yen will be 85 by year end, and 90 by end 2012. Recently reiterated. Theirs is a fundamental approach. The pure chart shops predict Yen to 60 or less ... which common sense test finds ridiculous.
  • #28,347
  • Edited 1:37pm Oct 23, 2011 1:14pm | Edited 1:37pm
Yeah but the thing is that once intervention do happen,they have to raise it up to 85-90 at least,to break all the down trend lines and downward channels.Otherwise scenario might repeat eventually.
As for EU what they can possibly invent by wednesday,if the only solution is create another trillion, billion euro funds to rescue sinking ships like greece,spain and others,but the problem is for the last three years all those countries only manage to sustain their economy just to run and manage paying all the debs, without creating any jobs or some sort of stimulus to recover it.And Germany with France and GB know that once one of these countries,gonna want to leave EU all the money they put in them gonna be start of their recession,as they only manage to keep their economy running is interesting costs that they collect form all the debtors
  • #28,348
  • Oct 23, 2011 3:03pm Oct 23, 2011 3:03pm
Azumi will keep on watching as ordered by NODA. NODA did a great job in watching USD/JPY to 76 & now he is the PM of Japan. Azumi is next his job is to watch USD/JPY down to 60 & he will be offered the next PM position for a job well done. What a fiasco, there mission is to destroy japanese economy & exporters. Nothing is happening at the moment. All systems are a GO. Buckle up sit back & enjoy the ride to 60
  • #28,349
  • Oct 23, 2011 3:16pm Oct 23, 2011 3:16pm
Quoting kzazs
Azumi will keep on watching as ordered by NODA. NODA did a great job in watching USD/JPY to 76 & now he is the PM of Japan. Azumi is next his job is to watch USD/JPY down to 60 & he will be offered the next PM position for a job well done. What a fiasco, there mission is to destroy japanese economy & exporters. Nothing is happening at the moment. All systems are a GO. Buckle up sit back & enjoy the ride to 60
Maybe BOJ are just collecting money and then they will do a final intervention like SNB to rise 1000 pips so in that case USD/JPY should be back to 85 or at least if it could stay above 80.40 that means technically it will break the downtrend line..
I just realized that USD/JPY is more than 1.25 per pip now (i always thought it was around 1 but then i realized the more it down, the more expensive per pip, kind of risky for people just randomly opened a long position to think they can keep it for 2000 pips drop, although it may not go that low)..
but i still do not believe it is a good idea to short USD/JPY at this level, just my 2 cents. If USD/JPY can go above to 76.35 then the temporaly bottom at new low at 75.78 should be valid.
  • #28,350
  • Oct 23, 2011 6:46pm Oct 23, 2011 6:46pm
Trade surplus better than expected and bof practicing verbal agression once again. Whats the worry ? Lol
  • #28,351
  • Oct 23, 2011 6:56pm Oct 23, 2011 6:56pm
Market doesnt seem too impressed by Azumi's verbal agression,usd/jpy up a massive 0.13% ;-)
Imo rightfully so !

What about shorting the bounce ?
  • #28,352
  • Oct 23, 2011 8:06pm Oct 23, 2011 8:06pm
long UJ with 5 lots
  • #28,353
  • Oct 23, 2011 11:37pm Oct 23, 2011 11:37pm
Looking for this,Tested or Break
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily Trend.png Size: 33 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,354
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:05am Oct 24, 2011 12:05am
For those of you that expected some kind of intervention, other than the usual verbal one, will be disappointed once again. I'm afraid that they will continue to be disappointed in future. Why:

- Japan is now awaiting outcome of the ongoing EU discussion. This is used as a good reason not to intervene. You have to bear in mind that there have been 31 urgent EU meetings in the last 21 months ! The EU will be going from one crisis to another as long as there is no common fiscal union, which, if at all, will take years to complete. Waiting to take action till the EU leaves the crisis behind will result in an even stronger Yen as it could take years before the burocratic EU manages to line up all members in the same direction.
- QE3 in the US will be a matter of time. Confident that once the EU crisis is momentarily in the background, Japan will wait for the definite outcome of possible QE3 before taking any action. And who knows, to be on the safe side they will want to wait for QE4 and perhaps even QE5.
- Jpy is no longer losing value towards the Gbp/Eur/Nzd/Aud/Cad and even the Chf. It's the Usd which is being sold for some time now towards all pairs. I don't think that they will intervene based on one pair, especially now Usd is getting less important for Japanese economy. EU and China are now taking the lead as the US is deteriorating year by year.

So, in a nutshell, Japanese are not known for taking unilateral action as they are focussed on group dynamics. It's part of their culture to seek consensus. In todays world waiting for others to approve your actions is killing, as a matter of fact it has always been that way (history is loaded with examples). The Swiss for that matter don't have a problem going lone wolf and will do what's best for their interests instead of seeking constant approval of others. Result, Chf is no longer safe haven, no longer at the mercy of Forex markets. They called the shots, not waiting for others to do the job. Imo, that's the only right way to act, not only in Forex but also thoughout life.

Based on all of the above I've decided to look out for a short in the Usd/Jpy.
  • #28,355
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:12am Oct 24, 2011 12:12am
Quoting SIgurs
For those of you that expected some kind of intervention, other than the usual verbal one, will be disappointed once again. I'm afraid that they will continue to be disappointed in future. Why:

- Japan is now awaiting outcome of the ongoing EU discussion. This is used as a good reason not to intervene. You have to bear in mind that there have been 31 urgent EU meetings in the last 21 months ! The EU will be going from one crisis to another as long as there is no common fiscal union, which, if at all, will take years to complete. Waiting...
Short now or ?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,356
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:29am Oct 24, 2011 12:29am
Quoting SIgurs
For those of you that expected some kind of intervention, other than the usual verbal one, will be disappointed once again. I'm afraid that they will continue to be disappointed in future. Why:

- Japan is now awaiting outcome of the ongoing EU discussion. This is used as a good reason not to intervene. You have to bear in mind that there have been 31 urgent EU meetings in the last 21 months ! The EU will be going from one crisis to another as long as there is no common fiscal union, which, if at all, will take years to complete. Waiting...
now？
  • #28,357
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:35am Oct 24, 2011 12:35am
Quoting FXMindset
Short now or ?
ha
i have the same question
your profile is very good

"I have been trading for some years and I am still standing. I have seen a lot of traders come and go. They have a system or a program that works in some specific environments and fails in others. In contrast, my strategy is quite Idiot but simple and I constantly learn and change

I'm using Daily chart as my Primary view and risk Per trade stand around 1%-2% averagely or max 5% with minimum RR 1:2

I'm Believe that Successful trading depends on the 3M`s - Mind, Method and Money. Beginners focus on analysis, but professionals operate in a three dimensional space. They are aware of trading psychology their own feelings and the mass psychology of the markets. Each trader needs to have a method for choosing specific Currency,stocks,options or futures as well as firm rules for pulling the trigger - deciding when to buy and sell.Money refers to how you manage your trading capital

Lastly,In Order to survive and gain consistenly In long term we need always respect the market and Trade Wisely"

btw,are you chinese? singer?my QQ is 896205767,contact me please
  • #28,358
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:52am Oct 24, 2011 12:52am
Saxo Bank > $USDJPY Despite a long period of indecision and range trading since the Summer, the pattern for sentiment in $USDJPY for more than four years has been for bounces to fail. This has been highlighted once more as last week the pair once again attracted selling from the six-month bear trend of failed bounces that has capped improvements since April. The result was the largest loss in 2 ½ months trading and with bearish momentum levels increasing the forecast is for selling interest to get stronger this week. Against this background sentiment should remain bearish below 77.10 targeting losses through last week's low at 75.77 to 74.80 then 74.20
  • #28,359
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:57am Oct 24, 2011 12:57am
Quoting fatpanda
ha
i have the same question
your profile is very good

"I have been trading for some years and I am still standing. I have seen a lot of traders come and go. They have a system or a program that works in some specific environments and fails in others. In contrast, my strategy is quite Idiot but simple and I constantly learn and change

I'm using Daily chart as my Primary view and risk Per trade stand around 1%-2% averagely or max 5% with minimum RR 1:2

I'm Believe that Successful trading depends on the 3M`s - Mind, Method and Money....
Well,Kungfu Panda?Which part china of you? Guangzhou,Beijing,Shanghai or ?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,360
  • Oct 24, 2011 1:00am Oct 24, 2011 1:00am
Japan's finance minister prepared to take action on yen



The remarks by Jun Azumi succeeded in weakening the value of the yen against the US dollar in Monday trading. Wonder how long it will take before markets call his bluff .... once again ;-)
"This is an utterly speculative move and not reflecting the economic fundamentals at all. This is regrettable," Mr Azumi said. Regret doesn't bring the Yen down.


"If this move becomes excessive, we have to take decisive action. I already instructed my staff on Saturday to be prepared to take action."
Again !!!???? Credibility !!!??? lol



Now, investors are waiting to see if the government will directly intervene in the currency markets again.The last time officials intervened was in August, when they spent a record amount of money trying to weaken the yen. 'Normal' intervention hasn't dented the strong Yen. Why will it be any different this time around ?

Can hardly wait to see the outcome of the fight between markets and mr Azumi. Barking dogs don't bite (hard enough to make a lasting impression).
40 traders viewing now, 2 are registered:
Jeks
,
Jagannivash