EurAnalysis | Page 238 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #4,741
  • Oct 23, 2011 5:57pm Oct 23, 2011 5:57pm
Quoting AaronWard
Hey Kno... where do you get your feed of the US Futures from?
Aaron. Check page 1 Resources section

Oh never mind, here's the link...

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,742
  • Oct 23, 2011 6:11pm Oct 23, 2011 6:11pm
Quoting knoholygrail
Try WWW.CNBC.COM and I think you can get it all on a 15 minute delay. Have a good week trading.
Many, many thanks.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,743
  • Oct 23, 2011 6:26pm Oct 23, 2011 6:26pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Hmmmm. I wouldn't be too sure that the toxic debt is already priced in. Perhaps partially accounted for but still a long way to go to fair value if we are to see a 50% haircut on Greek debt.
With all the respect, we dont have a clue how much the haircut will be, nor the reaction of the market to that... this is just speculation. When I said the toxic debt is already priced in, I mean the bad state of Greek economy (plus few more EU countries).

If I can remind the people here, in June 2010 EU was trading around 1.2, and everybody and their dog predicting with absolute certainty 1.15, yet it rallied instead, same thing happened last Feb.

All I am saying is that the situation is fluid and we need to stay alert focused and unbiased as much as we can, things can change any moment to any direction.

All the best.
  • #4,744
  • Oct 23, 2011 6:31pm Oct 23, 2011 6:31pm
Quoting challenger78
With all the respect, we dont have a clue how much the haircut will be, nor the reaction of the market to that... this is just speculation. When I said the toxic debt is already priced in, I mean the bad state of Greek economy (plus few more EU countries).

If I can remind the people here, in June 2010 EU was trading around 1.2, and everybody and their dog predicting with absolute certainty 1.15, yet it rallied instead, same thing happened last Feb.

All I am saying is that the situation is fluid and we need to stay alert focused and unbiased...
Yes I concur. Situation is very fluid.
I was only commenting on your statement that the toxic debt is already priced in. On that point I have to respectfully disagree. What is priced in right now is nothing short of hopium.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,745
  • Oct 23, 2011 7:00pm Oct 23, 2011 7:00pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...bt-crisis.html

Now we will see how Europe likes it and then North America. I really want to see the Magic Solution on Wednesday.

Yawn !!!
  • #4,746
  • Oct 23, 2011 7:08pm Oct 23, 2011 7:08pm
I believe we wont see a clear direction before the PMIs start getting out, with China first in 2 hours and 22 min.
  • #4,747
  • Oct 23, 2011 7:34pm Oct 23, 2011 7:34pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Then perhaps it is best to wait until it goes 500 pips in the wrong direction without closing the gap before opening a position to close it

Like I said... not a strategy I would use.
absolutely. I trade this pattern, and it is probably the only purely technical pattern I trade. But I hate it.

Small gaps of 5 -20 pips are really not worth the trouble. But when it opens down 50 -100 pips... then that is a move worth taking.

But what does that mean in real terms... well, that the fundamentals are really bad. So you need to buy when all your instincts say sell.

I am currently not chasing this gap, though I am sure I will regret it in the next couple of weeks.

Statistically it only goes down 500 pips or so about one time in ten.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,748
  • Oct 23, 2011 7:35pm Oct 23, 2011 7:35pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Greenuns,
The article is referring to capital. The Swaps between the ECB and the FED are about liquidity provided through loans. Big difference between capital and liquidity.

Capital is an investment in the bank via stock purchases or other long term investment instruments.

Liquidity is an injection of cash via short term loans to the bank.

My understanding of the liquidity requirements for the Euro area banks is that there is not enough USD cash available for banks to lend each other due to a few reasons, one of which is that the ones...
Thank you PT, it does clear things up for me, thank you for taking the time
Have a long way to go for fundies...
  • #4,749
  • Oct 23, 2011 7:38pm Oct 23, 2011 7:38pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/No-dea...html?x=0&.v=12

There is no way they will agree on anything by Wednesday. Then there is 8 days to the G-20 meeting on November 3 and 4 in Cannes, France.
Then we have the FED two days before the G-20 and the deadline on the Deficit Reduction by the Super Committee of 12 who I have named the 12 Wise Ones who also have a deadline of November 23, 2011. The other central banks meet soon and wil Draghi reduce Interest Rates in the Eurozone to 1% from 1.5% ? What will that do to the Euro ?
  • #4,750
  • Oct 23, 2011 7:54pm Oct 23, 2011 7:54pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Aaron. Check page 1 Resources section

Oh never mind, here's the link...

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5

.
Wow, so purdy. You know me... too lazy to read.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,751
  • Oct 23, 2011 9:15pm Oct 23, 2011 9:15pm
#^#&$@# Flipping internet. Let's try this post again, and again, and again. Thank God for copy and paste.

Keep losing my connection. Not good trying to do some short term trades. I'm flat and going to bed now. Hate closing trades too early when I feel I'm in the right direction. Looking slightly risk on for Asia. Oh well, I have all week to try to shake the money tree and my longer term goal of 1% gain per day is still on track so far this week after a good week last week.

My back hurts bad from doing some remodeling in my office this weekend. Taking my pain meds and going to bed.

Be back sometime London or NY.

E$ long -22
E$ long +14
$Yen long +12

+0.7% for today.



Weekly she's approaching the 200sma @ 1.3987 and the 61.8 fib @ 1.4013. 20 ema shows down trend. Price is consolidating in a long term range it has been in for several years.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly.jpg Size: 109 KB


Daily she's approaching the 200ema @ 1.3957, 200sma @ 1.4090, a supply zone @ 1.3995-1.4143, and the 1.4013 fib. 20ema shows up trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.jpg Size: 119 KB


240 she's hit the supply zone around the 1.39 several times, I would not be comfortable shorting here for a swing or position trade. IMHO, it will not hold much longer with US$ being pumped into the European banking system and everyone high on hopium. Let's face the facts. Few traders dig into the fundamentals like we are here. Most see the headline and follow the herd. I do the same thing day trading and scalping. I'm not looking for a swing trade until around the supply zone @ 1.4040 or the next zone @ 1.4268 where price was severely rejected when the SNB put the floor in the EURCHF.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 240.jpg Size: 113 KB


Trade safe.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #4,752
  • Oct 23, 2011 9:55pm Oct 23, 2011 9:55pm
Quoting AaronWard
Traider,

Perhaps you could clarify what you mean by

there is vast surplus available for further extraction which there is,

Thanks,
World labour and resources are still largely undeveloped if we use American measures of resource application.

The dethroning of resource nationalists such as Saddam and now, Ghadaffi, largely unchallenged by China for example (the planets major investment destination) bar a few muted tones of disapproval, suggests that the opening of these previously jealously guarded sources of surplus are sufficient (and coveted) (via management by more growth friendly intermediaries) for the next phase of growth expansion.

Much of the political discourse on the ill's of the system remains largely social in character rather than economic. Where it is economic, it tends to express the mercantilist preferences of small enterprise. The world on the other hand is managed by a class of super capitalist, owners of massive fund pools who are by and large the drivers behind free trade and the scrapping of rules and borders. A capitalism on the cusp of major change will trigger a very different style of discourse, one driven by a very visible collapse of accumulation.

Finally, the bank debts triggered by the popularising of ownership in the West are symptomatic of hasty Cold War policy, which both the banks and homeowners were quick to exploit. The banks are precariously exposed with these debts on their books admittedly yet I hardly think that the ruling elites from Europe to Asia will preside over the demise of their cash cow for something so capable of resolution and which incidentally offers the opportunity to streamline capitalism's cost profile.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #4,753
  • Oct 23, 2011 10:59pm Oct 23, 2011 10:59pm
Quoting knoholygrail
Fact or Fiction - Stay Tuned Fellow Trader's - Watch the Price Action...
Thanks for the information

Pbh
  • #4,754
  • Oct 23, 2011 11:07pm Oct 23, 2011 11:07pm
Quoting traider
World labour and resources are still largely undeveloped if we use American measures of resource application.

The dethroning of resource nationalists such as Saddam and now, Ghadaffi, largely unchallenged by China for example (the planets major investment destination) bar a few muted tones of disapproval, suggests that the opening of these previously jealously guarded sources of surplus are sufficient (and coveted) (via management by more growth friendly intermediaries) for the next phase of growth expansion.

Much of the political discourse on...
I think I understand.

In other words, world growth should continue until African nations are as efficient as European nations. So maybe another 70-150 years.

One more question:

their cash cow for something so capable of resolution and which incidentally offers the opportunity to streamline capitalism's cost profile.

How are they going to resolve the problem and streamline capitalism's cost profile at the same time?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,755
  • Oct 23, 2011 11:16pm Oct 23, 2011 11:16pm
Quoting AaronWard
How are they going to resolve the problem and streamline capitalism's cost profile at the same time?
Probably stick the little man with the bill as usual.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #4,756
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:31am Oct 24, 2011 12:31am
Quoting AaronWard
I think I understand.

In other words, world growth should continue until African nations are as efficient as European nations. So maybe another 70-150 years.

One more question:

their cash cow for something so capable of resolution and which incidentally offers the opportunity to streamline capitalism's cost profile.

How are they going to resolve the problem and streamline capitalism's cost profile at the same time?
Africa will find it's place in an open market...most likely in agriculture, renewable energy and mining.

The debts will be written down with socialised inputs and a new global labour culture will eventually standardise wage costs worldwide. The West is overpriced at the moment which has given rise to a whole raft of problems not the least being skewing the budgets of its consuming class. The trick of course will be to adjust these values without bankrupting the banks who hold these securities which is where periodic easings will come into play. Easings will be a way of life for the next while I suspect until the property bubble has been adjusted and bank accounts are back in the black.

Securitisation, whilst an unmitigated disaster with housing, will flourish in other sectors I suspect and probably make a comeback into housing as it essentially underlines the fiat character of capitalist accumulation and of course, is an essential function of a diversifying market.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #4,757
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:43am Oct 24, 2011 12:43am
Quoting traider
Africa will find it's place in an open market...most likely in agriculture, renewable energy and mining.

The debts will be written down with socialised inputs and a new global labour culture will eventually standardise wage costs worldwide. The West is overpriced at the moment which has given rise to a whole raft of problems not the least being skewing the budgets of its consuming class. The trick of course will be to adjust these values without bankrupting the banks who hold these securities which is where periodic easings will come into play....
So, quantitative easing until inflation has reduced the american worker to the level of the Chinese worker. By this time the banks should have so much money that liquidity and capitalization is not a problem. Yes?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,758
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:53am Oct 24, 2011 12:53am
I think it's probable that Euro will break 3900's soon. like maybe before/around london open..
  • #4,759
  • Oct 24, 2011 1:03am Oct 24, 2011 1:03am
Flag Pattern break,Bullish Continuation
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Daily.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Daily Trend.png Size: 36 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #4,760
  • Oct 24, 2011 1:07am Oct 24, 2011 1:07am
Quoting FXMindset
Flag Pattern break,Bullish Continuation
trend is your friend buddy!
18 traders viewing now