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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #4,661
  • Oct 23, 2011 1:20am Oct 23, 2011 1:20am
Quoting AaronWard
Go to the broco trader site and download their MT4. Then go to the Market Watch window, right click and then select "show all"
Thanks, I have the Broco trader but only see the pairs. I'll check out your instructions. Thanks again!
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #4,662
  • Oct 23, 2011 1:22am Oct 23, 2011 1:22am
Quoting AaronWard
Go to the broco trader site and download their MT4. Then go to the Market Watch window, right click and then select "show all"
Wow, I got it! I feel like I found the Holy Grail Thanks friend!
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #4,663
  • Oct 23, 2011 1:29am Oct 23, 2011 1:29am
Quoting BullsVsBears
Wow, I got it! I feel like I found the Holy Grail Thanks friend!
Thank PT He directed me there 2 days ago.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,664
  • Oct 23, 2011 1:42am Oct 23, 2011 1:42am
Quoting AaronWard
Thank PT He directed me there 2 days ago.
Thanks PT! I'm sure he's relaxing now, but he'll receive it when he comes back to work..
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #4,665
  • Oct 23, 2011 1:45am Oct 23, 2011 1:45am
Aaron, don't know if you're familiar with it already, but fxstreet.com has a lot of great resources. Check it out..
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #4,666
  • Oct 23, 2011 2:03am Oct 23, 2011 2:03am
Quoting BullsVsBears
Aaron, don't know if you're familiar with it already, but fxstreet.com has a lot of great resources. Check it out..
I'll check it out, thanks
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,667
  • Oct 23, 2011 2:10am Oct 23, 2011 2:10am
PT--

I am not sure how much room you have on the first page for links, but here is one that is on my must read list.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=239348
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,668
  • Oct 23, 2011 2:45am Oct 23, 2011 2:45am
Quoting iqyu5an;
-

thanks.. safe trade..
  • #4,669
  • Oct 23, 2011 3:11am Oct 23, 2011 3:11am
Quoting AaronWard
Traider, when I look at the last 200 years I see 2 things both very good. First, net wealth has greatly increased. Second, power of the elites is greatly reduced while class mobility is far greater. I see these two as going hand in hand.

I also see that countries that adopt these two will have a competitive advantage. This has nothing to do with the natural "rightness" or "wrongness" of these ideas. Merely countries that allow class mobility and wealth generating systems will inevitably "beat" those that do not because they have more...
Globalisation is simply capital without restrictions. It's application, momentum, return on and finally, magnification by the variety of mechanisms that a borderless world will offer. For traders such as ourselves, it is the culmination of a long journey from wealth creation being largely institutionalised to one that finally is fully accessible. Speculation set free of all oversight in other words which I am sure no one on here can possibly quibble with.

Now when we talk about the emergence of incompetent elites and all the problems we are encountering with the poor instruments of secondary and tertiary value they drafted, these have a lot more in common with the Cold War era and attempts by Raeganites and Thatcherites to open up ownership to as many as possible. Co-opting a stake in the system in other words. I think the need for that has passed and we are emerging into an era of pure speculation based on value and return.

It is increasingly becoming evident that the markets are entering a steep learning curve out of which we will see the rise of leaner, more efficient economic zones (yes, even a globalised world will be subject to some form of regional weighting), each competing for a slice of the global fund pool. The transition will not be without its difficulties. not the least being the use of the socialised fiscal base to neutralise much of the toxic mess the poorly drafted housing derivatives have left behind. Clearly this is generating a lot of dissatisfaction worldwide. However, I don't think that it is of the magnitude to unwind the ongoing freeing up of capital's momentum. If anything, the crisis will only tend to emphasise the need for governments to abstain from using the marketplace for political projects, not that I expect to see that need arise again, not whilst there is vast surplus available for further extraction which there is, and of course, some of this is evident in, for example, the demise of resource nationalism, of which Libya is a very recent example.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #4,670
  • Oct 23, 2011 3:26am Oct 23, 2011 3:26am
Germany has many interests in the ongoing European debt saga.


From an economic point of view I will claim that Germany is the big winner from being part of Euro. The alternative to Euro for Germany would be a currency likely 25%+ higher in value – and a real threat to their enormous export income. During the Euro years Germany has likely benefited more than a trillion Euros from being part of a currency weaker than the one they would have had on their own. Most Germans do not recognise this benefit as almost ľ of the population thinks that the Euro is a failure.


Now Germany is requested to help out solving the debt crises that the region is in the middle of – and in a way which the German public is not happy with. Polls show that around ľ of the population is against helping Greece.


German papers have taken on a very tabloid approach to these issues and are very much to blame for – what I would call – a selfish approach to an issue which can only be solved being non-selfish.


The question is whether the Germans really understand that being cooperative in these questions – and in fact – being more than that in terms of helping out with a hand of leadership and capital – is very much in their own interest.


Much attention has been paid the Angela Merkel’s party and coalition party’s recent bad performance in regional elections. It’s not a surprise that they are doing badly when they are not able to get the real message through. And the real message should be that Euro is a gift to the country – as it has always been. Just put figures to this argument and calculate how many more unemployed people Germany would have had if it was not for their membership in Euro. Public opinion would likely look very different if reality was presented to them. The German public is not stupid but they need the facts.


It’s a surprise to me that these simple facts cannot be debated public – with emphasis on what they are. Instead it is a debate which is turned into one set by emotions and rather distasteful arguments.


Go on like this – and the Germans risk that some countries have had enough – and actually will leave the Euro – for reasons Germans might have underestimated. If they do so – Germany will be the biggest loser of all eurozone members. The more of the weaker economies potentially to leave – the stronger the Euro will be – and in the end it will be as strong as it would be if Germany still had the old German mark. Germany’s export would shrink and unemployment would accelerate.


German politicians know this and what comes through to me is that they try to play s game where Euro is to be kept floating with all its members in place. Weaker economies shall get help only to the extent of keeping them alive. As such the weaker economies will continue to have a negative effect on the value of the Euro, which is very much in the interest of Germany.


The question is: How long will it take before others are fed up and take the matter in their own hands?

So maybe the headline should read whether the German public are aware of what is at stake for them – not for the reasons the German tabloid papers are setting out – but for the reasons of German politicians playing a dangerous game in Brussels.
  • #4,671
  • Oct 23, 2011 4:05am Oct 23, 2011 4:05am
Hi Coaching,

I more or less agree with you. The Euro is a currency fix for the Germans. Not only are they benefiting from a cheaper D mark, they also have an additional bonus I call the fear factor. That is, for the last 3 years they have an addition 10-20% discount on their currency because of the fear generated by Greece & friends.

The thing I question though, is the attitude of the German people. Do they really want to get rid of the Euro? I think not. Most Europeans will complain, but when push comes to shove, they start talking about a "dream". And by that they mean a united Europe.

Your thoughts?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,672
  • Oct 23, 2011 4:10am Oct 23, 2011 4:10am
Traider,

Perhaps you could clarify what you mean by

there is vast surplus available for further extraction which there is,

Thanks,
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,673
  • Oct 23, 2011 4:21am Oct 23, 2011 4:21am
Quoting coachingfx
German politicians know this and what comes through to me is that they try to play s game where Euro is to be kept floating with all its members in place. Weaker economies shall get help only to the extent of keeping them alive. As such the weaker economies will continue to have a negative effect on the value of the Euro, which is very much in the interest of Germany.

The question is: How long will it take before others are fed up and take the matter in their own hands?
How long do most oppressed peoples beset by economic colonization take to get fed up and throw off their overlords? Not as long now as it used to.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,674
  • Oct 23, 2011 4:27am Oct 23, 2011 4:27am
Quoting walb99
Main problem is that in the public this crsis is referred to as the euro crisis. This is misleading. The truth is, that it is a crisis of the european institutions dealing with souverain debt of some of their member states.
But instead of clarifying this, Journalist and politicians like to talk to the public as a kind of kindergarden in terms of "we have to save Greece" or "we have to save the euro" or prefere since OWS any kind of bank-bashing.
But still...I started my forex life with the "death to the Euro" crowd. But then I discovered that this crowd seemed predominately made up of Brits and Americans.

It seems to me that since this is a European project, what they think is far more important than what we think.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,675
  • Oct 23, 2011 4:42am Oct 23, 2011 4:42am
Quoting walb99
everybody in EU kwows that the euro is a success story and this will be the case in the future, there a more countries to join the euro, the swiss franc is now pegged to the euro and also russia and china are working on the project to break the dominance of the US$

euro-bashing is part of US and UK propaganda, because those two have no plan how to tackle their debt problem unless with QE.
That s why the euro will not deppriciate as expected.

My personal view: as soon as Berlusconi steps down, the euro will surge.
I think the UK doesn't like the Euro because 2000 years of history have taught them that a united Europe is really, really bad for England.

The US doesn't the Euro because it poses a credible threat to the world dominance of the USD.

As for it surging... well, Berlusconi is one of their smaller problems.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,676
  • Oct 23, 2011 4:44am Oct 23, 2011 4:44am
Quoting walb99
euro-bashing is part of US and UK propaganda, because those two have no plan how to tackle their debt problem unless with QE. That s why the euro will not deppriciate as expected.
the most strident declarations of unsinkability usually appear just as the ship's bow is angling down into the deep
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,677
  • Oct 23, 2011 5:03am Oct 23, 2011 5:03am
Nice article. Are you saying that B is a liability for his party, and so if he steps down, the euro's position will be much stronger in Italy?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,678
  • Oct 23, 2011 5:22am Oct 23, 2011 5:22am
Quoting walb99
the new PM of Italy should cooporate with european institutions again, in the present only the ECB is holding itanlian bond yields down, but for how long?

When I look at the European politicians, I have yet to see one that wants out of the EZ. Really, I find this very suprising, but hey if it makes them happy...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,679
  • Oct 23, 2011 6:08am Oct 23, 2011 6:08am
Quoting walb99;
Main problem is that in the public this crsis is referred to as the euro crisis. This is misleading. The truth is, that it is a crisis of the european institutions dealing with souverain debt of some of their member states.
But instead of clarifying this, Journalist and politicians like to talk to the public as a kind of kindergarden in terms of "we have to save Greece" or "we have to save the euro" or prefere since OWS any kind of bank-bashing.

.
  • #4,680
  • Oct 23, 2011 7:19am Oct 23, 2011 7:19am
EUR/USD Outlook – October 24-28

Yohay's weekly Euro analysis is available at the above link. I've always enjoyed reading them as they give a clear and un-biased outlook.

Here is his sentiment on the euro for the coming week, but I suggest you read the entire article...

I turn from neutral to bearish on EUR/USD

After a week of hope and a week of tension, this week could be more decisive for Europe. The leaders in Europe are struggling to reach a decision about a significant step forward regarding the debt crisis, needless to say a comprehensive one. While an agreement will likely be reached and celebrated, it could turn into a poor compromise that will just drag the situation further. Needless to say that implementing decisions is another issue.

In addition, the weakness of Europe’s economy is another drag, especially when compared to some more positive signs in the US.

The scenario of an orderly Greek default at the beginning of November seems more and more real but it probably won’t be an elegant one
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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