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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #4,621
  • Oct 22, 2011 7:31pm Oct 22, 2011 7:31pm
All this info can make one feel dizzy, trading is not this complex, truly not.
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #4,622
  • Oct 22, 2011 7:59pm Oct 22, 2011 7:59pm
Quoting The Fool
a plethora of freely traded currencies would be superfluous in such a nightmare
Independent currencies, like independent states, have a sell by date. We aren't quite at the point where capital will demand this degree of efficiency....however, increasing standardisation of trade rules, equalisation of labour value and of course, improvement of surplus extraction (greater competition) will see the need for what will become increasingly antiquated reminders of mercantilism, to be jettisoned. A few decades away, I would hazard a guess.

The gold standard belongs in the era of the corner fish monger and tailor. It will never return as it would simply lock up the further deepening of late capitalist accumulation and kill the goose that's laying the golden egg.

Whatever replaces capitalism will not be a return to mercantilism nor will it be any earlier than mid century. What we have and even more (in terms of speculative trading styles of wealth creation) are set to become very much a way of life till then. The Euro crisis is simply the setting for greater globalisation.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #4,623
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:00pm Oct 22, 2011 8:00pm
Kno -- Perhaps you might want to consider a guideline of quoting no more than you actually write? This is getting hard on the eyes to find what I am looking for.

Thanks,

Aaron
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,624
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:01pm Oct 22, 2011 8:01pm
Quoting traider
Independent currencies, like independent states, have a sell by date. We aren't quite at the point where capital will demand this degree of efficiency....however, increasing standardisation of trade rules, equalisation of labour value and of course, improvement of surplus extraction (greater competition) will see the need for what will become increasingly antiquated reminders of mercantilism, to be jettisoned. A few decades away, I would hazard a guess.

The gold standard belongs in the era of the corner fish monger and tailor. It will never return...
Hi Traider, I am glad to see our resident Marxist has stopped in for a chat. I always enjoy your posts and they give me something to think about.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,625
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:03pm Oct 22, 2011 8:03pm
Quoting fxrising
All this info can make one feel dizzy, trading is not this complex, truly not.
I agree. Trade in the knowledge that you are in a way of life which is on the brink of a great expansion.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #4,626
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:05pm Oct 22, 2011 8:05pm
Quoting AaronWard
Hi Traider, I am glad to see our resident Marxist has stopped in for a chat. I always enjoy your posts and they give me something to think about.
You're welcome Aaron. Economics objectively approached truly opens the mind to stress free trading.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #4,627
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:15pm Oct 22, 2011 8:15pm
Quoting The Fool
Which people? It doesn't matter what people in general think. It doesn't even matter what retail fx traders think - that's why those long/short position charts published by Oanda and SaxoBank are considered contrarian indicators. Retail fx traders, as a whole, are usually wrong.
Fool,

I was just playing the devils advocate. I don't see how any informed person could think that the Euro problem was solved. So why would the big boys suddenly change their mind? Even the USD loans to Europe were not enough to explain why the USD fell across all currencies pretty much equally.

However QE3, first talked about in private now in public would do just that.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,628
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:19pm Oct 22, 2011 8:19pm
Quoting traider
Whatever replaces capitalism will not be a return to mercantilism nor will it be any earlier than mid century. What we have and even more (in terms of speculative trading styles of wealth creation) are set to become very much a way of life till then. The Euro crisis is simply the setting for greater globalisation.
I hate to agree, but...

Look at what is going on. Everybody is threatened. Everybody is pitching in. There is no "European problem" ... no, it is a world problem. And whatever is waiting for us ten years from now... you can be sure that there will be a lot more rules that nations have to abide by.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,629
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:20pm Oct 22, 2011 8:20pm
Quoting traider
The Euro crisis is simply the setting for greater globalisation.
The setting is there arguably for disintegration, as well. There are no guarantees....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,630
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:26pm Oct 22, 2011 8:26pm
Quoting FXMindset
Long USDJPY might be a good idea In near term with stop 75.50 below now and am hope this is not decending
I would be real careful with your stops. USD/YEN is subject to sudden spikes in both directions.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,631
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:32pm Oct 22, 2011 8:32pm
Quoting AaronWard
Kno -- Perhaps you might want to consider a guideline of quoting no more than you actually write? This is getting hard on the eyes to find what I am looking for.

Thanks,

Aaron
I am trying hard to accomodate people's suggestions. I post longer snippets I guess since when I get to something I am not interested in I just scroll by it. Most of what i post as a snippet makes the point better than I. I am open and ready to consider your thoughts. Thanks for the post.
  • #4,632
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:37pm Oct 22, 2011 8:37pm
Quoting knoholygrail
I am trying hard to accomodate people's suggestions. I post longer snippets I guess since when I get to something I am not interested in I just scroll by it. Most of what i post as a snippet makes the point better than I. I am open and ready to consider your thoughts. Thanks for the post.
Please do. We all could find experts and quote them at length, but when you fill up 3 pages of this thread with 'cut and paste' i feel spammed.

This is a place to express your thoughts... not a place to fill up with other peoples thoughts.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,633
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:42pm Oct 22, 2011 8:42pm
Quoting AaronWard
Please do. We all could find experts and quote them at length, but when you fill up 3 pages of this thread with 'cut and paste' i feel spammed.

This is a place to express your thoughts... not a place to fill up with other peoples thoughts.
When I Quote someone it is because they are my thoughts. However for those of us that want to really understand things I find it helpful to really have a full explanation and so do some others here. however I will take your comments under consideration. You seem to be the only one with this comment. I will try to keep your position in mind. Take care.
  • #4,634
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:56pm Oct 22, 2011 8:56pm
Quoting The Fool
The setting is there arguably for disintegration, as well. There are no guarantees....
Europe's problems are classic late capitalist inefficiencies....a supra-entity with inconsistent surplus outcomes where we have a hugely efficient Germany carrying a grossly inefficient S Europe. All of this in a worl,d where the efficiencies in the East are off the charts. There is only one way this will play out and a European worker, who, till now took the status quo for granted as his birthright (the right to premium return on his labour no matter what his efficiency capacity) is soon to learn a harsh lesson in the economics of private accumulation. I have no doubt that we will see a leaner and meaner Europe emerge from this.

True, it may need incremental doses of socialised cpr until the setting is riight for further deregulation, but the deregulation of Europe (as well as the rest of the world) is guaranteed. Capital cannot acquiesce to regulations. Not as it deepens and competition becomes ever more a fact of life. It does not have the capacity to do so.

This is a one way track and you as a trader can benefit. However, if you are seeking a more ethical capitalism, ethics and accumulation were a luxury in days when our appetite for returns were limited by our ability to magnify them.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #4,635
  • Oct 22, 2011 9:10pm Oct 22, 2011 9:10pm
Quoting knoholygrail
When I Quote someone it is because they are my thoughts. However for those of us that want to really understand things I find it helpful to really have a full explanation and so do some others here. however I will take your comments under consideration. You seem to be the only one with this comment. I will try to keep your position in mind. Take care.
Thank you. I also note that of the many threads I subscribe to on FF you are the only poster that will fill up three pages of cut & paste in an hour or two.

Many times we see an article that is particularly good... typically a link is enough. If you feel that it is important for the greater public at FF to see it, there is functionality in the news room where you can make a submission.

Thanks again.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,636
  • Oct 22, 2011 9:23pm Oct 22, 2011 9:23pm
Quoting traider
Europe's problems are classic late capitalist inefficiencies..... There is only one way this will play out
your points on the probable outcome of globalization are noted & I don't necessarily disagree. But I can imagine a variety of altenative futures. The book of capitalism is still being writ, so any presupposed "classic" scenarios are imaginary. We have not been here before - on a planet freighted with 7+billion humans, running out of natural resources or at least afflicted with their inequitable distribution. I could see hyperfinancialized capitalism, a trader's paradise where wealth concentrates in fewer and fewer hands, being put to the torch.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,637
  • Oct 22, 2011 9:31pm Oct 22, 2011 9:31pm
Quoting The Fool
I could see hyperfinancialized capitalism, a trader's paradise where wealth concentrates in fewer and fewer hands, being put to the torch.
How would this happen? And what would be the replacement model? (All I am looking for is a work of imagination here.)
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,638
  • Oct 22, 2011 9:43pm Oct 22, 2011 9:43pm
Quoting AaronWard
Kno -- Perhaps you might want to consider a guideline of quoting no more than you actually write? This is getting hard on the eyes to find what I am looking for.

Thanks,

Aaron
His post are not against the guidelines set by the thread starter, they contain relevant information. I like to read it inline like he posts it without having to follow links.

But I can understand that you find this kind of posts anoying, it is your personal preference. There is functionality for ignoring users in this forum, you might find it useful. I hope this helps.

Now lets get back to discussing relevant stuff.

PS: PipTrapper, thanks for starting this thread, it is a breath of fresh air compared to the junk in EURUSD thread.
  • #4,639
  • Oct 22, 2011 9:50pm Oct 22, 2011 9:50pm
Quoting AaronWard
How would this happen? And what would be the replacement model? (All I am looking for is a work of imagination here.)
A rejection of globalization, return to nationalism....disintegration....chaos?

Most people I know who consider themselves "conservative" are anti-free trade. They may not be able to articulate it as such but they are anti-globalization. Even zenophobic. There are no economic foces that are unassailable, no ineluctable outcomes.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,640
  • Edited 10:08pm Oct 22, 2011 9:57pm | Edited 10:08pm
Quoting The Fool
A rejection of globalization, return to nationalism....disintegration....chaos?

Most people I know who consider themselves "conservative" are anti-free trade. They may not be able to articulate it as such but they are anti-globalization. Even zenophobic. There are no economic foces that are unassailable, no ineluctable outcomes.
I don't agree. Globalization is inevitable since the invention of the internet, just look at what is happening in the arab states, rules that existed for hundreds of years are being replaced. In my opinion it is a one way street.

In the best case, there will be a balance. The poor countries will get a bit richer and the rich a bit poorer, to a point of convergence. In the worst case, there will be a 3rd world war, as the poor will not put up any more and the rich will not want to give up anything.

So in a globalized world, countries that stick together have a better chance of survival, hence the push for eurozone, and why I don't see europe disintegrating any time soon. Yes, it is difficult to balance so many nations...

Regarding EURUSD which is this thread, I believe it will stay around current levels for some time, hence my vote for 1.3-1.4 to year end. I mean, I dont see extremes like 1.2 or 1.5 like some people predict. Simply because this is not in the interest of anyone (I mean leaders of EU and USA) and fundamentally, long term, both EU and USA face the same problems.

The whole EU debt problem has been overstated all over the media because this is in the interest of everybody. It is in the interest of Germany cause it is main exporting country and wants a weak euro, and it is in the interest of the US cause without it, and given the huge amount of QE in the last 2-3 years, the USD was too close to losing its reserve status, which would be a total disaster for the USA, so they had to shift focus on something else... I hope this explains it...

Finally, the Chinese, which are the ones with money, got it right this week when they said that Europe is a good investment opportunity if it gets its act together... and I say yes, cause it has the infrastructure and the know-how, and with the debt crisis it is fast becoming a cheap place compared to its advantages.
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