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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #28,301
  • Oct 21, 2011 11:25am Oct 21, 2011 11:25am
panda have long uj at 76.10 for retesting 76.60
  • #28,302
  • Oct 21, 2011 11:37am Oct 21, 2011 11:37am
Trying a long @ 76.13

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #28,303
  • Oct 21, 2011 11:47am Oct 21, 2011 11:47am
Quoting iwjw
You should be fine then
So you could close the position anytime you want during weekend?
Yeah, i can close the position and open the new position anytime as i want during the weekend with ONADA.
But usually on the weekend, the price is not moving and the spread is 10-20 pips and it will became normal usually after 5pm at Eastern Time.
  • #28,304
  • Oct 21, 2011 11:47am Oct 21, 2011 11:47am
Quoting fatpanda
panda have long uj at 76.10 for retesting 76.60
hope you are right this time.
  • #28,305
  • Oct 21, 2011 12:21pm Oct 21, 2011 12:21pm
Dont be greedy
Dont be afraid
Dont try pick the bottom because its expensive
Just use a very reasonable MM then your emotion would be controlled and Compound It each time
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,306
  • Edited 1:52pm Oct 21, 2011 1:39pm | Edited 1:52pm
What to expect next week ? Will Boj finally react, realizing that it will take much more than just tough talk and soft measures to halt Yen appreciation ?

Imo, we'll see new lows as markets clearly don't take Boj serious anymore. Recent action took an immense toll on it's credibility. I guess they will verbally reiterate their tough intentions to curb Yen strenght eventough it's effectiveness has proven to non-measurable.

Swiss beat them, leaving Yen as the only big safe haven in Forex land. Curbing Yen strenght can be accomplished in two ways:

- US economy taking off like a rocket, which is highly unlikely given lackluster econ activity
- pegging Yen, which is given the enormous Japanese economy hardly possible to do

So, in short, I still remain bullish Yen for the time being. Perhaps I'am being shortsighted but I don't see this process turning round in the near future. In 2007 Usd/Jpy was at 123, beginning of 2011 at 84. Wouldn't be surprised to see low 70's if no structural action is being taken. Mind you that it's not only a matter of Yen strenght, it's also about Dollar weakness (all other pairs all well off their all time lows). As we all now, US is in even a bigger mess than EU and Japan. Wait till QE3/4/5 kicks in, any idea what that would do to the Yen ?

Just my 2 cents !
  • #28,307
  • Oct 21, 2011 1:43pm Oct 21, 2011 1:43pm
Quoting SIgurs
What to expect next week ? Will Boj finally react, realizing that it will take much more than just tough talk and soft measures to halt Yen appreciation ?

Imo, we'll see new lows as markets clearly don't take Boj serious anymore. Recent action took an immense toll on it's credibility. I guess they will verbally reiterate their tough intentions to curb Yen strenght eventough it's effectiveness has proven to non-measurable.

Swiss beat them, leaving Yen as the only big safe haven in Forex land. Curbing Yen strenght can be accomplished in two...
Your chart has the answer
how mate?hold long or new long or got stop just
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,308
  • Oct 21, 2011 2:05pm Oct 21, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting FXMindset
Your chart has the answer
how mate?hold long or new long or got stop just
I don't have a position in this pair for the time being. Have been warning for months that Japanese reaction would not be sufficient, causing markets to test Boj's bluff sooner or later.

Well, today was the day that markets took on Boj and it would highly surprise me if they would stop here. Also note that we saw no fierce turnaround once price went down, suggesting that no big orders are supporting these levels.

What we do know is that Japanese companies will be forced and motivated even more to outsource production elsewhere. Boj is stuck between a rock and a hard place. A situation which they created themselves !!! Up to them to solve the unsolvable ?
  • #28,309
  • Oct 21, 2011 2:08pm Oct 21, 2011 2:08pm
closed all my long positions today.
I rather miss any spike that might happen than keep losing till BOJ decides to do something.
  • #28,310
  • Oct 21, 2011 2:16pm Oct 21, 2011 2:16pm
Quoting SIgurs
I don't have a position in this pair for the time being. Have been warning for months that Japanese reaction would not be sufficient, causing markets to test Boj's bluff sooner or later.

Well, today was the day that markets took on Boj and it would highly surprise me if they would stop here. Also note that we saw no fierce turnaround once price went down, suggesting that no big orders are supporting these levels.

What we do know is that Japanese companies will be forced and motivated even more to outsource production elsewhere. Boj is stuck...
we drop for 100 pips over so the turnover not so fierce as before when we spike 600 pips

Would be interesting to look what would Jap Authorities comment later on Monday..another yada yada Arigato or BakaYaro!
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,311
  • Oct 21, 2011 3:15pm Oct 21, 2011 3:15pm
Quoting FXMindset
we drop for 100 pips over so the turnover not so fierce as before when we spike 600 pips

Would be interesting to look what would Jap Authorities comment later on Monday..another yada yada Arigato or BakaYaro!
Closing very weak, extremely weak. Even the small bounce to 76.25 we saw after the initial sell off is being sold off towards the end. This action seems to suggest that markets are very confident going into next week, probably hunting new lows as as it's becoming apparent that Boj is being considered weak in it's action. Even more, markets don't seem to expect more than strong rethorics next week. This week's proposed measures were sold off today. Rightfully so as it was a mere copy of the last one that did NOT work either.

Going into the weekend at these lows with important EU talks as well is a strong Yen bullish sign. Couple that to dollar weakness due to expected QE3 and one hardly cannot but conclude that this pair is heading way lower. Expect an acceleration in down momentum.

Short the bounce, been telling that for months ;-) Boj credibility is what's it all about ... seems like they have lost it somewhere along the road. Mind you, it takes longer to build a reputation/credibility than losing it !

Ofcourse, all of the above is not valid when Boj decides to step in first thing next week. LOLOLOL

All imo !
  • #28,312
  • Oct 21, 2011 3:29pm Oct 21, 2011 3:29pm
Quoting odloak
We - retail traders - always loose, the big guys won
No we don't.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #28,313
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:11pm Oct 21, 2011 4:11pm
In long term look like can buy JYP, but nowday who interesting long term investment. Only short term and big profits
Once scalper always scalper
  • #28,314
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:31pm Oct 21, 2011 4:31pm
Quoting freemen
In long term look like can buy JYP, but nowday who interesting long term investment. Only short term and big profits
I think you mean buy USD/JPY
buy JPY means short USD/JPY
  • #28,315
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:10pm Oct 21, 2011 5:10pm
Quoting zz_zhang
it is indeed very . but the thing abt this pair is that is hasnt form any new low for the past weeks.

however we cannot rule out a possible spikes down to the round number low 76.00 support to clear those longers beofre advancing upwards.

trade with care


The spike down clear Most of the longers who went in earlier either cls their position, stopped out or had just went long.if the boj has the intervention card in hand they had to throw it very soon if not chances going lower is very high.

On the other hand
Shortist had their sell stop triggered on new low awaiting for further plunge.

Monday is gonna be interesting.
trade safe
  • #28,316
  • Oct 22, 2011 2:16am Oct 22, 2011 2:16am
Quoting zz_zhang
The spike down clear Most of the longers who went in earlier either cls their position, stopped out or had just went long.if the boj has the intervention card in hand they had to throw it very soon if not chances going lower is very high.

On the other hand
Shortist had their sell stop triggered on new low awaiting for further plunge.

Monday is gonna be interesting.
why there is a spike down ?
  • #28,317
  • Oct 22, 2011 2:43am Oct 22, 2011 2:43am
Quoting zz_zhang
The spike down clear Most of the longers who went in earlier either cls their position, stopped out or had just went long.if the boj has the intervention card in hand they had to throw it very soon if not chances going lower is very high.

On the other hand
Shortist had their sell stop triggered on new low awaiting for further plunge.

Monday is gonna be interesting.

Prepare to Buy...
  • #28,318
  • Oct 22, 2011 4:01am Oct 22, 2011 4:01am
Quoting Wekekek
Prepare to Buy...
By all means load up the truck as huge interrvention is coming next week. Attached article is pretty clear on what Japanese authorities are planning to do: take decisive action ! Only problem I see is that it has been said so many times before without actually showing guts to actually go out and doing something a bit more drastic that this message is of no value at all for the time being. Doubt whether markets will take his warning at heart and reverse their position first thing next week. History shows that there's a pretty good chance that there will be no decisive action taken.

Looks to me that mr Azumi and his friends are facing huge credibility issues ;-)

========

TOKYO, Oct. 21, 2011 (Reuters) — Japan's finance minister said on Saturday he would take decisive action against excessive and speculative yen moves, Kyodo news agency reported, threatening to conduct currency intervention after the yen rose to a record high against the dollar.

Jun Azumi was also quoted by Kyodo as saying that the yen's appreciation was not so much a reflection of Japan's economic fundamentals, but reflected the relative economic conditions in Japan, Europe and the United States.

"I would like to take decisive action on excessive and speculative movements," Azumi was quoted by Kyodo as telling reporters.

"We're in a situation where the foreign exchange rates would wipe out earnings by hard working companies."

His comments came after the U.S. dollar tumbled on Friday and hit a record low against the yen on speculation Europe was closer to solving its debt crisis.

The dollar fell as low as 75.78 yen on trading platform EBS, surpassing its previous record low of 75.94 set in August.

Since September last year, Tokyo has intervened in the currency market twice on its own and once jointly with other Group of Seven rich nations to cool the yen's gains.

But the effects of intervention have proved short-lived due to Europe's sovereign debt crisis, which is sending investors into perceived safe-haven assets such as the Japanese currency.

Japan's economy is believed to have rebounded in the third quarter from a recession caused by a devastating March earthquake.

But the recovery is now under the threat of a slowing global growth and a strong yen, which reduces the value of profits earned abroad by Japanese firms and makes their exports less competitive.

Japan announced on Friday it would spend 2 trillion yen ($26 billion) on subsidies to encourage companies buffeted by a strong yen to keep factories and jobs in the country.
  • #28,319
  • Oct 22, 2011 4:06am Oct 22, 2011 4:06am
Quoting Wekekek
Prepare to Buy...
Keep a good MM for buy and dont brutally push buy button
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,320
  • Oct 22, 2011 5:12am Oct 22, 2011 5:12am
Quoting Yuchen
I think you mean buy USD/JPY
buy JPY means short USD/JPY
I mean short USD/JYP look in chart clear bearish trend. But not touch this because you never know what will BOJ do. USD weakening. Maybe will come better after US president election.

If you believe USD then offcorse long.
Good luck mate!

PS. I don`t trade JYP and CH after they become safe havens
Once scalper always scalper
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