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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #4,421
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:19am Oct 21, 2011 8:19am
Quoting RodMca
Well you're correct I was going short wherever I could simply because I thought a trend was starting and the bottom was going to soon fall out. Unfortunately it doesnt work like that and Ive gotten into the mindset of having a bearish bias so have taken it upon myself to sit back read some books and listen to what Alorente has to say and hopefully i'll be back with a better mindset!
Timing is key. I have lost so much money being right, but just a few days (or minutes early). The EUR/USD is a steamroller. Dodge or do a Whiley Kyote.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,422
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:21am Oct 21, 2011 8:21am
Quoting walb99
sometime it s a good idea to look at a chart with trendlines before putting on a trade
Great advice walb99
In fact I was looking at trendlines and stochastics and MacD and fib lines and daily, weekly and monthly pivots +++. My system works extremely well 95% of the time. Today is one of those 5% days
I take my losses, lick my wounds and live to fight another day. No worries.
Been here many times before and I'm still in the green
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,423
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:22am Oct 21, 2011 8:22am
Quoting RodMca
Well you're correct I was going short wherever I could simply because I thought a trend was starting and the bottom was going to soon fall out. Unfortunately it doesnt work like that and Ive gotten into the mindset of having a bearish bias so have taken it upon myself to sit back read some books and listen to what Alorente has to say and hopefully i'll be back with a better mindset!
No need to hurry
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #4,424
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:25am Oct 21, 2011 8:25am
1.3913 will be key resistance now.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,425
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:26am Oct 21, 2011 8:26am
Well I wouldnt be too intent on looking to long just yet we've reached to 50% fib level once more and we've already tested it twice so if we break and hole today the sky is the limit however we could still be stuck in this boring range!
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  • #4,426
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:28am Oct 21, 2011 8:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well folks. I have been humbled today. I just took a 100 pip loss.
Channel has been broken to the upside.
The Fed in intent on printing and debasing the dollar and the ECB is intent on helping them.
Now we will probably see 1.40
Let's see how the rest of the day goes .

.
You're humbled? 100 pips? I crapped 100 pips in 14 seconds the first time I try to go long USDJPY because there seemed to be a floor under it from the JCB. Now they report some type of exotic options caused a spike because everyone had stops at 76.00

I think I have a new market indicator for you...I will just tell everyone what I am doing, and do the opposite. You will rake it.

This isn't about trends and graphs and market insights and strategies, you can find a way to interpret those things like dreams and why your hatred of things blue led you to become a podiatrist. The fundamentals are undeniable, and just as undeniably being ignored. It is the willing suspension of disbelief, for everyone but the people in this forum apparently.

Someone kept mentioning that Soros said gold was a bubble at 800, and still rode it to 1600. Well, that is the piece of psychology that you don't see on charts and graphs. That is what is at work here. Something more is happening.

Just the same, which piece of psychology will be in effect today? I was going into today thinking only a great fool would have his money in the stock market going into this weekend where almost nothing good can happen for stocks, so I was expecting a quick run up, then a hard sell off into the close as people take profits and get to the sidelines prior to these EU summits.

Now I wonder if the optimism and momentum are so strong combined with 4th quarter money flows, that we burst all the way to the close today, and end up with a massive gap down on Monday and reality finally hits then, or perhaps reality gets kicked all the way til Euro completely breaks trend and heads to 1.45.

I can't get in the head of this market, every time I try, the guy on the couch bills ME $200 an hour while telling me about his problems.
  • #4,427
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:28am Oct 21, 2011 8:28am
1.4 high possible now..fiuh
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #4,428
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:28am Oct 21, 2011 8:28am
Hmmm just as a post a chart we get a bounce, don't listen to me I'll just go back to my book happy trading all!
  • #4,429
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:30am Oct 21, 2011 8:30am
Quoting RodMca
Well I wouldnt be too intent on looking to long just yet we've reached to 50% fib level once more and we've already tested it twice so if we break and hole today the sky is the limit however we could still be stuck in this boring range!
I suspect we will be Rod.
However, we must not lose sight of what just happen to the US dollar. This is not a Euro long frenzy. Look at the EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD and you'll see what I mean. Then look at the Dollar index and try not to puke.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,430
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:31am Oct 21, 2011 8:31am
Quoting AaronWard
In the 70's + 80's the US lived with double digit inflation for almost a decade.
Hmhm. Didnt know that. I once cleaned DowJones out of inflation and it showed that whole 70 ies was a downmove, although it seemed from charts we are going up. Yet I was using monthly inflation, so I didnt see those double digits. Interesting indeed, I thought it is almost impossible. Will need to check history, what happened in US during 70ies.

Ding ding, NY time. Tom´s spam out.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,431
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:32am Oct 21, 2011 8:32am
Could the big Dollar Dump v the Yen signify the atrt of a risk off event. I'm not exactly a star when it comes to profit making but as a safe haven appreciation of yen doesn't normally do the EUR any favours.

Am I just a bit pie in the sky here.
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #4,432
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:35am Oct 21, 2011 8:35am
I see what you mean but now invetors seem to be buying euro as a result of this bounce eur/chf is starting to rise a little as is eur/jpy. Well I have no idea what is going on! Strange times it would seem
  • #4,433
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:38am Oct 21, 2011 8:38am
Quoting RodMca
Well I have no idea what is going on! Strange times it would seem

Big Fat DITTO to that
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #4,434
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:39am Oct 21, 2011 8:39am
Quoting PipTrapper
I suspect we will be Rod.
However, we must not lose sight of what just happen to the US dollar. This is not a Euro long frenzy. Look at the EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD and you'll see what I mean. Then look at the Dollar index and try not to puke.
Exactly. This literally DOOMed my account. Over 10% loss, half of it - today, due to magic USD dumping. Just like ntrpz, when I got into USD/JPY i got kicked.

Maybe I left to wide SLs, but still it was not only bad MM / bad entry, but some bad luck to. I am not making any moves now... maybe after I rest through the weekend I'll have a clue what is happening.

I start to think, that this USD backdoor QE will be the key factor in the market... Is it divided into parts, or simply ECB takes as much as it needs? And how much of that was already used...?
  • #4,435
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:39am Oct 21, 2011 8:39am
Quoting ntrprz

I think I have a new market indicator for you...I will just tell everyone what I am doing, and do the opposite. You will rake it.

I can't get in the head of this market, every time I try, the guy on the couch bills ME $200 an hour while telling me about his problems.
Well, if that is the way you feel about it... I'll give you some advice for free. Stand on your head and place your orders. Not only will it improve the supply of blood to your brain... it will allow you to place orders opposite of what you would see standing up.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,436
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:42am Oct 21, 2011 8:42am
Quoting PipTrapper
1.3913 will be key resistance now.
Agree.

She is deep into the first supply zone with the upper limit @ about 1.3916 and testing the upper zone I have marked in red with no rejection... Yet. This is a zone I would have liked to short but I wouldn't touch it today. Do so at you OWN risk. This upper zone is being hit for the 4th time, each hit makes it weaker.

Beyond the 1.3916 will test the bottom of the trendline which is also the top of the supply zone @ 1.3959. Through here a pretty clean shot to 1.4040

Futures are VERY risk on.

European markets and US markets are rallying hard right now.

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #4,437
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:43am Oct 21, 2011 8:43am
Quoting AaronWard
I think another important dynamic needs to be included. That is the USD. Last week looked like the Euro was bearish. But not really. It went up against the Canadian dollar. And pretty much stable against the pound. It is the USD that is surging. The Euro didn't fall below 1.35. It was the USD that broke through the 1.35 barrier.

This may sound excessively basic, but most of the times I lose money on the Euro, it is because I focus on the Euro and forget that the other half of the cross, the USD, is a volatile currency.
This was one of my first posts here. USD is the killer. Let us give it a bit more attention.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,438
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:44am Oct 21, 2011 8:44am
It seems I'm not alone I too am stuck in the mud! I just emptied my account last night for fear I'd go bust by this time next week if i left anything in it. Some well deserved time out is needed for all of us to just re-gather our thoughts and re-enter when we're sure of something!
  • #4,439
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:50am Oct 21, 2011 8:50am
Quoting NZ Chris
Could the big Dollar Dump v the Yen signify the atrt of a risk off event. I'm not exactly a star when it comes to profit making but as a safe haven appreciation of yen doesn't normally do the EUR any favours.

Am I just a bit pie in the sky here.
The dollar is selling across the board.
There are many possible factors here. One or more of them could be at play. I will outline them below.

1. Two Fed members (don't ask me which ones right now) are tooting their horn in public about further easing. (The market loves that)
2. The Fed is still providing USD loans to the ECB (USD negative when it gets exchanged for Euros)
3. US econ data was not that bad and corporate earnings have come in okay for the most part (Less likelihood for a US double dip recession so money flows from USDs to risk assets = USD negative)
4. The market is now sick of hearing about EZ problems. They are traders and investors. They need to trade and invest. Sitting on the sidelines does nothing for them so they either have to take risk, or go home (more money flows from US fixed income safe havens to riskier assets globally)
5. The traders and investors who are still smnart enough to stay on the sidelines, due to the now higher risk of more QE from the Fed, are moving their money from USDs to JPYs (also USD negative and JPY positive)

I could probably come up with more, however I don't want anyone to think I am trying to build a case to go bullish on the Euro, because that would be the furthest thing from the truth.

The Euro is a big bubble right now and I don't want to be holding it when it bursts. George Soros may have the necessary organs to ride gold from $800 to $1800 knowing full well it will eventually burst, but I don't have to be that brave.

I'm flat till we either hit major resistance and get a good bounce to the downside, or till I see a viable solution in the Euro Zone.

1.3915 is key resistance now. If price action is clearly telling me to short, I will take a position there. However, I do believe, based on the 5 points I outlined above that we may actually see 1.40 before the EZ releases their rescue fund (EFSF) and bank re-cap plans on Wednesday next week. Once we see what the plan is, I suspect that we get a sell-off. "Buy the rumor/Sell the news"

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,440
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:51am Oct 21, 2011 8:51am
Quoting RodMca
It seems I'm not alone I too am stuck in the mud! I just emptied my account last night for fear I'd go bust by this time next week if i left anything in it. Some well deserved time out is needed for all of us to just re-gather our thoughts and re-enter when we're sure of something!
Smart move, stick around, learn and get a non expiring demo account and practice, practice, practice. Find what works for YOU and ignore everyone elses trades. Do keep their trading styles in mind though.

I'm happy to have you here and believe you can contribute and help us learn while learning yourself.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
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