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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #4,401
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:19am Oct 21, 2011 7:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
Sorry for interjecting. I just wanted to point out that you are absolutely correct in this and that is why I find Elliot Waves more accurate on Currency Indices which are measured against a basket of other currencies rather than just one other.

Perfect examples are the Dollar Index and the Euro Index.

I don't have annotated charts to show you but I invite you to try it.
Tried this, reporting back, didn't make that much difference...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,402
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:23am Oct 21, 2011 7:23am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Everyone has different glasses and I am trying them all and improving myself.
I have Bifocals
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #4,403
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:26am Oct 21, 2011 7:26am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Wish me luck .
May you trade well and prosper in all things material and non-material.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,404
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:33am Oct 21, 2011 7:33am
Time to Put Europe in a Box
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,405
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:39am Oct 21, 2011 7:39am
Quoting PipKiller
I have Bifocals
Lol.

I would call it multifocals, since you are posting charts from 5 min to weekly. Or some zooming glasses you took from military depository . Does US military trade FX? Maybe if they did, Obama could cut their budget even more.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,406
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:39am Oct 21, 2011 7:39am
Quoting PipTrapper
Time to Put Europe in a Box
Does it mean, that the EUR correlations with for example S&P will be less strong? I think they won't get broken....

Btw, key trendline tested, and under huge pressure. But it holds for over an hour now. Good so far.

ADD: Wow! A strong USD/JPY fall. Risk-off, or what?
  • #4,407
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:55am Oct 21, 2011 7:55am
Quoting Blobik
Does it mean, that the EUR correlations with for example S&P will be less strong? I think they won't get broken....

Btw, key trendline tested, and under huge pressure. But it holds for over an hour now. Good so far.

ADD: Wow! A strong USD/JPY fall. Risk-off, or what?
A glance across all the major $ pairs look like someone just dumped a boxcar full of US$
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #4,408
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:58am Oct 21, 2011 7:58am
Perhaps it is right time to try longing EUR then. So the dumping of the USDs will take place till the end of the year ? We have broken the key trendline on H1... I guess shorting now is pointless... Maybe close to 1.40...
  • #4,409
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:59am Oct 21, 2011 7:59am
WTF just happened to JPY? That hurt. It is like a Crazy Ivan, every so often JPY spikes down to wipe out those thinking there is a floor, like me. Nice timing to try that...

Man do I suck the last three days.
  • #4,410
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:01am Oct 21, 2011 8:01am
Stand a side now hit my SL all's
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #4,411
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:03am Oct 21, 2011 8:03am
Just taking things from a large view.
The scope of the problem in Europe is beyond the realm of solvable with financial engineering. Stop gap measures will not produce sustainable results.
No one in Europe has pockets deep enough to bail out everyone for an indeterminent time.

All the CB's of the world know that the only thing that can resolve the dilemma is to have growth.

The only thing the CB's know how to do is print money or create credit.
They believe in it, they worship it, they also have it within their power under a fiat currency regime to conduct policy to achieve that end.

The victims in that case are those who actually save in the local currency.

The bailout bulls analyze as well as the bears. Their conclusion is that Government will roll over the savers and transfer wealth to the spenders.
That is considered good CB policy because when consumers spend the government collects revenues and the spending circus goes on and on.
That has been CB campaign strategy since the inception of the Federal Reserve.

The bailout bears believe that we are in a deflation and that entails credit destruction. It entails low consumer spending levels. Low levels of money velocity and heightened savings in advanced countries. It means that price levels will fall and that money will buy more goods as time moves forward.

Who is right? Those in control of the money are in alignment with bailout bulls. There is little public outrage over the destruction of savings since most citizens do not have any anymore. Most people are in hock to their ears. So we have politicians play the class card so as to blame the frugal for the faults of the many.

It pays to keep in mind the Euro is todays sacred cow. The hopes and dreams of those in political control.

This is starting to look like a failed trade at the 76.50 level on the USD index.
  • #4,412
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:04am Oct 21, 2011 8:04am
Quoting ntrprz
WTF just happened to JPY? That hurt. It is like a Crazy Ivan, every so often JPY spikes down to wipe out those thinking there is a floor, like me. Nice timing to try that...

Man do I suck the last three days.
I have the same... Beginnig of the week was winning, and now am deep underwater. I will analyze what were my mistakes later... Now closed everything and going to go shouting loud what I think about the whole situation...
  • #4,413
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:05am Oct 21, 2011 8:05am
Quoting Blobik
Perhaps it is right time to try longing EUR then. So the dumping of the USDs will take place till the end of the year ? We have broken the key trendline on H1... I guess shorting now is pointless... Maybe close to 1.40...
Hehe, possible. Maybe they will be printing bucks so long, that investors will forget there was a crisis and confidence will be restored.

But PPI suggest something else. When inflation strikes, they will have to stop printing. But that can take months.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,414
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:05am Oct 21, 2011 8:05am
Quoting ntrprz
WTF just happened to JPY? That hurt. It is like a Crazy Ivan, every so often JPY spikes down to wipe out those thinking there is a floor, like me. Nice timing to try that...

Man do I suck the last three days.
I know the feeling Ntrprz! Ive had an awful couple of weeks so decided to take a break and read up on some stuff and maybe try out a new strategy! Glad im doing that and not trading on a day like today its crazy!
  • #4,415
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:09am Oct 21, 2011 8:09am
Quoting Blobik
I have the same... Beginnig of the week was winning, and now am deep underwater. I will analyze what were my mistakes later... Now closed everything and going to go shouting loud what I think about the whole situation...
Guys, I am not trying to add salt to your wounds... but right now the Euro is trending sideways, and has been for the last 8 days-- in a very choppy 200 pip range. Your strategy was probably aligned to a trending market or a less violent market.

Good luck!
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,416
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:10am Oct 21, 2011 8:10am
Well folks. I have been humbled today. I just took a 100 pip loss.
Channel has been broken to the upside.
The Fed in intent on printing and debasing the dollar and the ECB is intent on helping them.
Now we will probably see 1.40
Let's see how the rest of the day goes .

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,417
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:13am Oct 21, 2011 8:13am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hehe, possible. Maybe they will be printing bucks so long, that investors will forget there was a crisis and confidence will be restored.

But PPI suggest something else. When inflation strikes, they will have to stop printing. But that can take months.

T.

In the 70's + 80's the US lived with double digit inflation for almost a decade.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,418
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:13am Oct 21, 2011 8:13am
Quoting AaronWard
Guys, I am not trying to add salt to your wounds... but right now the Euro is trending sideways, and has been for the last 8 days-- in a very choppy 200 pip range. Your strategy was probably aligned to a trend strategy or a less violent market.

Good luck!
Well you're correct I was going short wherever I could simply because I thought a trend was starting and the bottom was going to soon fall out. Unfortunately it doesnt work like that and Ive gotten into the mindset of having a bearish bias so have taken it upon myself to sit back read some books and listen to what Alorente has to say and hopefully i'll be back with a better mindset!
  • #4,419
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:13am Oct 21, 2011 8:13am
Quoting ntrprz
WTF just happened to JPY? That hurt. It is like a Crazy Ivan, every so often JPY spikes down to wipe out those thinking there is a floor, like me. Nice timing to try that...

Man do I suck the last three days.
Step back, cool off and re-evaluate yourself, get your head right before doing anything else.

Thank you Blobik for the heads up on JPY spike.

I hate when they spike the ball. I yanked my stop and added a heavy piece for 76.29 basis now. Japan will be screaming about the strong $Yen

Small piece long on E$ 1.3821. Upper trendline on 240 violated, may be a false break. Let's see if she'll run stops above and head for 1.4 Stop below lower demand zone @ 1.3547
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #4,420
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:14am Oct 21, 2011 8:14am
Sorry to hear that I feel your pain, I am myself almost to the point duck and cover.

Quoting PipTrapper
Well folks. I have been humbled today. I just took a 100 pip loss.
Channel has been broken to the upside.
The Fed in intent on printing and debasing the dollar and the ECB is intent on helping them.
Now we will probably see 1.40
Let's see how the rest of the day goes .

.
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
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