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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #4,381
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:58am Oct 21, 2011 5:58am
Quoting AaronWard
I just love your chart. Everybody says use volume, but my volume looks so crappy, that I just dont bother.
Yes, these charts are great... I want some like these too. @Smart Man, where/how can I get nice charts like these ?
  • #4,382
  • Oct 21, 2011 6:00am Oct 21, 2011 6:00am
Quoting JLinder
I got out of it just when it was starting to head down again, lost 10 pips of my profit but it's a good thing I was there when the weird price acion begun.
You might want to think about it if it goes below 1.21. Don't even bother with a stoploss (but make sure your account can withstand 100pips of DD). Set TP at 1.225 (or whatever).

SNB has your back. The only way 1.20 will be breached is if inflation becomes a problem in Swissy land.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,383
  • Oct 21, 2011 6:04am Oct 21, 2011 6:04am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Weeeell, thats why I didnt trade for 14 days. I thought trend from 4.10. will end at 1,36, where I wanted to short.

Anyway, now I wait for a B zone trend down (approximately 125 - 150%) and A zone correction of this trend (28 - 40%), as a confirmation of major downtrend. After such a pattern, I will short. Second option is spike up to 1,4, which would send this daily (4.10. till now) correction to C zone, which I consider almost unpenetrable, so I would short there (after simmilar H4 pattern(B trend,A correction)).

T.
Tom,

All technical analysis tries to predict what will happen next based upon what happened last. Its a bit like driving your car by watching the rear view mirror. Its better than driving it completely blind, but still...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,384
  • Oct 21, 2011 6:04am Oct 21, 2011 6:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
Perhaps my H4 chart will help.
.
Ahaa so I should just move my 4H trendline from the previous uptrend (that may still be in place).
  • #4,385
  • Oct 21, 2011 6:05am Oct 21, 2011 6:05am
Quoting PipTrapper
EURO Crapshoot

[i][u]Why have one when you can have two? With one summit looking like becoming two, are we any closer to the final solution? All this drama and he said she said is getting confusing. A matter of urgency is a prerequisite and so is perception. Europe is seeing to be doing the right thing and that’s providing some relative calm, but, when does the storm occur? Maybe Monday? By then investors will have decided if they liked the first EURO tease of a solution or not....
two summits = two euros
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,386
  • Oct 21, 2011 6:09am Oct 21, 2011 6:09am
flight to safety trade may be taking hold.
evidence
recent drops in USD/CHF
just had some air pockets in GBP/CAD and Euro/CAD
  • #4,387
  • Oct 21, 2011 6:24am Oct 21, 2011 6:24am
Quoting AaronWard
I just love your chart. Everybody says use volume, but my volume looks so crappy, that I just dont bother.

What I see when I look at your chart is Pump and Dump. During low volume times it rises, during high volume times it falls. Occasionally you get a rise on high volume... but it is always brief.
Thank you, more importantly know how to use them.
Admittedly, to know where the big players to make their transactions very profitable to trade.
When I was only using the TA, the accuracy of the position was weak.
And when I began to supplement their knowledge of more information about volume - trading has become much more profitable.
Volume I regard as active mommenty market.

If the volume is increasing and the market rises - which means that traders have begun to open buy.
  • #4,388
  • Oct 21, 2011 6:28am Oct 21, 2011 6:28am
How Does Europe Borrow Dollars From The Fed?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,389
  • Oct 21, 2011 6:32am Oct 21, 2011 6:32am
What was that rally about . And my sell limit missed the spike for a pip
  • #4,390
  • Oct 21, 2011 6:33am Oct 21, 2011 6:33am
whatever is going on USD looks weak
  • #4,391
  • Oct 21, 2011 6:36am Oct 21, 2011 6:36am
Quoting PipTrapper
How Does Europe Borrow Dollars From The Fed?
So, lots of Euros + Dollars created. The Euros never see the light of day so they are sterile. The dollars, however, go out into the world and cause trouble. Relative supply of dollars increases and the Euro spikes against the dollar.

Got it.

Also, 88 days to maturity. Jan 1, 2012? Mark it on your calendar.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,392
  • Oct 21, 2011 6:43am Oct 21, 2011 6:43am
Quoting AaronWard
Tom,

All technical analysis tries to predict what will happen next based upon what happened last. Its a bit like driving your car by watching the rear view mirror. Its better than driving it completely blind, but still...
I know. But what I am trying to do is this. I believe market is a living thing with its own mind. The same thing like crowd has its own will, which is different from will of participants of a crowd. Therefore, If I examine past, I may discover how this creature behaves. It is a combination of psychology of crowds and quantum physics (which regard to energy transfers. Here, energy transfers are transfers of information within a crowd). Kind of mumbo jumbo, but I like it.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,393
  • Edited 6:55am Oct 21, 2011 6:44am | Edited 6:55am
Took a step back to re-evaluate this thing and closed all open positions in E$ and ECHF before going to bed last night. Glad I did too.


Took a little time to very carefully place some trendlines exactly at high and low points and this is what I see.

Going back 13 years, the long term weekly up trend and channel is intact. Price has been consolidating since 2008 and a 1 year up trend line has been broken.. Major supply and demand levels are noted with the thick yellow dashed lines and the demand zone was respected, rejecting price higher @ 1.3145

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: week.jpg Size: 157 KB


Taking it down to the 240. Price is consolidating neither the down trend or the recent up trend lines have been broken. Price has been bouncing back and forth between a few supply and demand levels. From the 1.384 to the 1.396 we have 2 supply levels on top of each other

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Where is she going. Putting my bearish bias aside on the fundamentally flawed Euro right now......

Futures are risk on

With sovereigns pumping US$ into shoring up their banking... Japan, Switzerland and China wanting a weak currency to boost exports and the US wanting a weak currency to try to kick start the once mightly industrial giant and the economy... Investors tiring of the daily Eurozone crisis and looking for hope and the speculators heavily short...

I think the path of least resistance is a short squeeze right though the retail trader.

Me, I'm flat euro$ looking for a restest of the demand zone below, currently Long $Yen @ 76.68, SL 75.90, Target 77.39
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #4,394
  • Oct 21, 2011 6:55am Oct 21, 2011 6:55am
Quoting AaronWard
So, lots of Euros + Dollars created. The Euros never see the light of day so they are sterile. The dollars, however, go out into the world and cause trouble. Relative supply of dollars increases and the Euro spikes against the dollar.

Got it.

Also, 88 days to maturity. Jan 1, 2012? Mark it on your calendar.
Actually 88 days from 13th October 2011 should fall around the 9th or 10th of January 2012
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,395
  • Oct 21, 2011 6:58am Oct 21, 2011 6:58am
Quoting PipTrapper
Actually 88 days from 13th October 2011 should fall around the 9th or 10th of January 2012
Just testin' yah

And the market is testing the key trend line:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 48 KB
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,396
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:00am Oct 21, 2011 7:00am
Quoting AaronWard
And the market is testing the key trend line:
Moment of truth. Break it, or Die, Euro.
  • #4,397
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:01am Oct 21, 2011 7:01am
I think the path of least resistance is a short squeeze right though the retail trader.

Me, I'm flat euro$ looking for a restest of the demand zone below, currently Long $Yen @ 76.68[/quote]

Great minds think alike, I too am tired of this EURO drama and want to see definitive move before I get too bearish. And I too went long USDJPY at 76.712. At least there is a floor on it and I will think about entry long EURCHF if it gets below 1.22 again.

At least we can use these moronic central bankers to our advantage until we can feel more confident. Dow looks like it wants to rally at the open, gold taking a big bounce today, not a good time to be short EURUSD just this second. But watch the Dow/S&P. 1225 has been the recent cap on S&P500, if it breaks it, Santa Claus could be comin' to town early as the chart there on 3 Mos. looks like intead of ranging wildly, it could be consolidating and puting in a new floor for the 4th quarter. Very bullish for the Euro if so. If the S&P doesn't get south soon, as in by noon today and this time definitively break 1200 going south, then the bulls and all the cash that gets pumped into the markets this time of year from off the sidelines may simply be too much momentum.
  • #4,398
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:01am Oct 21, 2011 7:01am
Quoting PipKiller
Investors tiring of the daily Eurozone crisis and looking for hope and the speculators heavily short...

I think the path of least resistance is a short squeeze right though the retail trader.
Good point. Danger zone here. Well to me danger zone is since 16th Oct, but this is the end of it, so lets call it danger zone #2. Train is leaving the station in one hour. But where? I think last spike to 1,39 - 1,4 but dont trust me, I dont know nothing.

PT I promise I wont write anything not regarding to trading during NY session. It seems there are more and more people here so this thread could get nasty soon.

T.

EDIT: Btw, PT, I completely stopped visiting other threads. I just sometimes pop up there, but there are so many posts to think about here I just dont have time to go elsewhere and my brain is boiling anyway. Great thread indeed.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,399
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:14am Oct 21, 2011 7:14am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I know. But what I am trying to do is this. I believe market is a living thing with its own mind. The same thing like crowd has its own will, which is different from will of participants of a crowd. Therefore, If I examine past, I may discover how this creature behaves. It is a combination of psychology of crowds and quantum physics (which regard to energy transfers. Here, energy transfers are transfers of information within a crowd). Kind of mumbo jumbo, but I like it.

T.
Might want to try a different pair of glasses (method of analysis) for awhile. You will start seeing the same beast with a new light.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331 is a great thread.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,400
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:18am Oct 21, 2011 7:18am
Quoting AaronWard
Might want to try a different pair of glasses (method of analysis) for awhile. You will start seeing the same beast with a new light.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331 is a great thread.
Thats why I am here my friend. To learn from you. Everyone has different glasses and I am trying them all and improving myself. But for trading, I will stick with my analysis for now. I have been projecting it for half a year, now comes a half a year testing with minilots. Wish me luck .

I will surely check that link.

Best to you,

T.

Edit: Ah, James16. Alread read that one
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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