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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #4,361
  • Edited 4:31am Oct 21, 2011 4:20am | Edited 4:31am
Quoting FXMindset
Welcome my friends,
So how 4H chart progress so far..as am more focus on daily
DK how your daily charts look, but on mine there is a "doji stalemate" formation Ok, they are not exactly doji candles, but certainly show a lot of indecision. Last move before indecision was downward, but when compared with the upward move, the consolidation looks more bearish. But I would prefer to see a nice bearish marubozou (sorry if i misspelled sth) candle finally... I need to train my patience...

ADD: ouch, silly me, forgot the chart
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  • #4,362
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:43am Oct 21, 2011 4:43am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
My thought are hard to explain here, as I cant add all my charts, coz I am at work. But I will do my best.

First of all, I twisted Elliot waves into my Tom waves. I dont care whether wave 3 should be higher, lower or whatever, as every market differs and there are no strict rules. The system is very hard to describe but main point is in examining energetic shocks and adaptation of investor crowd to those shocks. Doesnt matter if those shocks are fundamental or technical. Point is, when there is a shock, investor crowd tends to react in waves (which...
Thanks tom. I followed (somewhat). How do you use this to make a buy or a sell decision?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,363
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:45am Oct 21, 2011 4:45am
According to CNBC TV Europe on the Worldwide Exchange program, The EZ economic summit will be held in two parts.

The first part will take place this Sunday 23rd October.

The second part will be on Wednesday 26th October.

A plan for the EFSF will be revealed after the summit is complete.

Angela Merkel will subsequently address the Bundestag.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,364
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:49am Oct 21, 2011 4:49am
Interesting fact... EURCHF shoots up just when EUR/USD started bouncing its resistance. Something weird is happening.

EDIT: affter 10 min EURCHF finally reflects EUR$ behavior. Seems like SNB is pulling CHF lower as a result of EURCHF drop. If I am right then this may support EUR a little...
  • #4,365
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:52am Oct 21, 2011 4:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
According to CNBC TV Europe on the Worldwide Exchange program, The EZ economic summit will be held in two parts.

The first part will take place this Sunday 23rd October.

The second part will be on Wednesday 26th October.

A plan for the EFSF will be revealed after the summit is complete.

Angela Merkel will subsequently address the Bundestag.
Today would be play in range again till EZ summit?
Well,again..am in the top of pages
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #4,366
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:53am Oct 21, 2011 4:53am
Quoting Blobik
Interesting fact... EURCHF shoots up just when EUR/USD started bouncing its resistance. Something weird is happening.
If you are in the playground of the EurCHF, you need to understand that it is controlled by the rumour mongers. They buy, start a rumour that there is a new peg at 1.25 or 1.30, crash it by selling everything they bought, and then they buy again and repeat.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,367
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:55am Oct 21, 2011 4:55am
Quoting FXMindset
There are 2 Kind of Diamond pattern
1.Diamond Top Pattern : When the price going up and form a diamond indicates further bearish
2.Diamond Bottom Pattern : When the price going down and form a diamond indicates further bullish

These diamonds are just a difrent name for a doji to me, though easier to see them as they(doji) form on a biger time frame then diamonds. Just my opinion.
  • #4,368
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:55am Oct 21, 2011 4:55am
Quoting AaronWard
If you are in the playground of the EurCHF, you need to understand that it is controlled by the rumour mongers. They buy, start a rumour that there is a new peg at 1.25 or 1.30, crash it by selling everything they bought, and then they buy again and repeat.
Certainly, even more rumour affected pair than EUR$...
  • #4,369
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:57am Oct 21, 2011 4:57am
Quoting Blobik
Certainly, even more rumour affected pair than EUR$...
Only one real rumor there... SNB WILL RAISE PEG
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,370
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:57am Oct 21, 2011 4:57am
Quoting AaronWard
Thanks tom. I followed (somewhat). How do you use this to make a buy or a sell decision?
Weeeell, thats why I didnt trade for 14 days. I thought trend from 4.10. will end at 1,36, where I wanted to short.

Anyway, now I wait for a B zone trend down (approximately 125 - 150%) and A zone correction of this trend (28 - 40%), as a confirmation of major downtrend. After such a pattern, I will short. Second option is spike up to 1,4, which would send this daily (4.10. till now) correction to C zone, which I consider almost unpenetrable, so I would short there (after simmilar H4 pattern(B trend,A correction)).

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,371
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:59am Oct 21, 2011 4:59am
Quoting AaronWard
Only one real rumor there... SNB WILL RAISE PEG
Yeah, I keep wondering why Japanese and Americans won't peg their currencies to the EUR too. The best known way to devalue the currency. At least recently.

EDIT: On the other hand, this would mean introducing "Euro standard", as everything would be priced relatively to Euro

ADD:
Hmm, if we are lucky, maybe we are just making lower high? Too early to say, but if we are to go lower than makin higher highs is unnecessary...
  • #4,372
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:30am Oct 21, 2011 5:30am
But it also had a higher low. In my eyes the price is compressing and a breakout of this triangle could give a lead. But I'm not sure I have done the analysis right or the drawn the bottom trendline right. What do you say about it? (Trying to learn here.)

By the way I got in long on EUR/CHF @ 1.2230, think I should hold it?

ADD: Is it better to look at the 4H-chart in this case? Then the candles never close outside the triangle.
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  • #4,373
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:33am Oct 21, 2011 5:33am
Btw, regarding that PEG rumour. Keep in mind SNB suffers huge losses with these interventions. Would be better for em to hold CHF, while it is appreciating, wouldnt it? So they couldnt stand against the marrket for a long time.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,374
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:39am Oct 21, 2011 5:39am
Hi guys, I venture to lay out his little preview on the market.
At the moment are great deals that are very visible. I expect I'm now playing at improving the market.

I noted the key levels, namely 1.3665 - is the support of buyers, and 1,381 support for the sellers. If the Bulls overcome the 1,381 - to begin an upward trend. At least I want to.
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  • #4,375
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:41am Oct 21, 2011 5:41am
Quoting JLinder
By the way I got in long on EUR/CHF @ 1.2230, think I should hold it?
Pros of holding the long: A rumour (pretty frequent recently) may get you a nice upward ride. It is almost certain, that a rumour will appear. Even If SNB said they don't want to maintain the floor anymore, the rumours would appear implying that this is a trap. You only don't know, when this will happen. In long term CHF is still a bit overvalued in my opinion. But you may get hit in short term.

Cons: You may lose your profit, if the EUR gets dumped heavily. It is probable, but the movement on EURUSD may be weakly correlated with EURCHF, as it already got "prepared" when it crashed this night.

Alternatives:
1) Scale out
2) Moving SL (I guess price is close to the entry, so in my opinion it is better either to take profit or let the SL sit where it is)
3) Making your own rumour (nah forget it, good traders don't use that methods )

Sum Up:
If you are shorting the EUR, than it may be useful hedge, so eventual break up will be not-that-harmful. But if you dislike when profitable position turns red, and are not sure about the EUR, than money in the wallet sounds better than a hole in the pocket.

EDIT:
This cannot be treated as any kind of recommendation or anything light that. I myself am a newbie, so don't rely too much on my EUR-bearish bias.
  • #4,376
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:41am Oct 21, 2011 5:41am
Quoting JLinder
But it also had a higher low. In my eyes the price is compressing and a breakout of this triangle could give a lead. But I'm not sure I have done the analysis right or the drawn the bottom trendline right. What do you say about it? (Trying to learn here.)

By the way I got in long on EUR/CHF @ 1.2230, think I should hold it?

ADD: Is it better to look at the 4H-chart in this case? Then the candles never close outside the triangle.
Perhaps my H4 chart will help.

As for EUR/CHF, I have no opinion as it is pure speculation not backed up by anything technical or fundamental. Just rumor.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,377
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:53am Oct 21, 2011 5:53am
EURO Crapshoot

Why have one when you can have two? With one summit looking like becoming two, are we any closer to the final solution? All this drama and he said she said is getting confusing. A matter of urgency is a prerequisite and so is perception. Europe is seeing to be doing the right thing and that’s providing some relative calm, but, when does the storm occur? Maybe Monday? By then investors will have decided if they liked the first EURO tease of a solution or not. It is increasingly unlikely that we will get a conclusive agreement on ways to leverage the EFSF this weekend, hence the need for another summit next week, possibly on Wednesday 26 October.

http://fxlabs.oanda.com/products/sna...l_20111021.png
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,378
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:53am Oct 21, 2011 5:53am
I got out of it just when it was starting to head down again, lost 10 pips of my profit but it's a good thing I was there when the weird price acion begun.
  • #4,379
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:56am Oct 21, 2011 5:56am
Quoting Smart man
Hi guys, I venture to lay out his little preview on the market.
At the moment are great deals that are very visible. I expect I'm now playing at improving the market.

I noted the key levels, namely 1.3665 - is the support of buyers, and 1,381 support for the sellers. If the Bulls overcome the 1,381 - to begin an upward trend. At least I want to.
I just love your chart. Everybody says use volume, but my volume looks so crappy, that I just dont bother.

What I see when I look at your chart is Pump and Dump. During low volume times it rises, during high volume times it falls. Occasionally you get a rise on high volume... but it is always brief.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #4,380
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:56am Oct 21, 2011 5:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
EURO Crapshoot

[i][u]Why have one when you can have two? With one summit looking like becoming two, are we any closer to the final solution? All this drama and he said she said is getting confusing. A matter of urgency is a prerequisite and so is perception. Europe is seeing to be doing the right thing and that’s providing some relative calm, but, when does the storm occur? Maybe Monday? By then investors will have decided if they liked the first EURO tease of a solution or...
waiting again or possible break at NY session?

Wellll....am in the first pages again ????
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
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