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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #4,221
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:32am Oct 20, 2011 10:32am
What do you think of my chart? A short opportunity if the trendline holds?
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  • #4,222
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:32am Oct 20, 2011 10:32am
So in your opinion do you think we'll see another fall before the end?
  • #4,223
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:32am Oct 20, 2011 10:32am
1.3660 rejected once more. and it is going up... that was not difficult to predict. what is now, 1.38X again?
As Above, So Below
  • #4,224
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:34am Oct 20, 2011 10:34am
Quoting spzd
That's how I'm reading it. The fundies guys may have a different take on this, but it does need to get back in balance according to my system.
This is basic harmonics. Price always returns to the mean. It is the basis of most indicators (Bollinger, MacD, Stochastics, Chart Patterns, etc)
It is also the basis of not having to use stop loss if entered correctly.

Retraces happen when the market takes a breath. This is also called consolidation. The cause behind it is profit taking upon reaching a specific target. Such specific target is usually based on an indicator.

It's a whole feedback loop. Traders use technical indicators because they believe they work. They work because traders use them. If nobody used them, they would be useless. Ironic isn't it?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,225
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:36am Oct 20, 2011 10:36am
Quoting tashkent
1.3660 rejected once more. and it is going up... that was not difficult to predict. what is now, 1.38X again?
It's back to a resistance area, so it shouldn't go up much more than 1.374x/5x.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #4,226
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:37am Oct 20, 2011 10:37am
Golly, stepped downstairs to get a bite to eat and the thing goes up again. The euro just retraced 38% Fib from the 1.3870 move of earlier this afternoon. Normal correction. It could have retraced 50% and it would still have been pretty normal. We should head south again soon. In my view, nothing has changed, unpleasant as it is.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,227
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:39am Oct 20, 2011 10:39am
Quoting JLinder
What do you think of my chart? A short opportunity if the trendline holds?
for scalp maybe. tiny SL
  • #4,228
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:39am Oct 20, 2011 10:39am
Quoting tianle
Are you guys still confident that the EUR will drop? that was a REALLY strong rally.
I'm not sure I would call it a strong rally.
If you full-screen your chart on the 15 or 30 minute time frame and draw a fib tool from today's high to today's low, you will see that it has simply retraced 38.2% of the entire day's move. 38.2 is considered nothing. Usually retraces are 50% to 61.8% of the move before the trend continues.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,229
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:39am Oct 20, 2011 10:39am
Truly ironic and even though I am not a big indicator guy, I am a big fan of balancing risk and indicators definitively help in that area.

Quoting PipTrapper
This is basic harmonics. Price always returns to the mean. It is the basis of most indicators (Bollinger, MacD, Stochastics, Chart Patterns, etc)
It is also the basis of not having to use stop loss if entered correctly.

Retraces happen when the market takes a breath. This is also called consolidation. The cause behind it is profit taking upon reaching a specific target. Such specific target is usually based on an indicator.

It's a whole feedback loop. Traders use technical indicators because they believe they work. They work because traders...
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #4,230
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:40am Oct 20, 2011 10:40am
Quoting JLinder
What do you think of my chart? A short opportunity if the trendline holds?
This may indeed be a short opportunity, but not because of 15m trendline. These lower timeframes are very fragile and patterns like trendlines or elliot waves shatter.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,231
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:42am Oct 20, 2011 10:42am
Quoting Alorente
Golly, stepped downstairs to get a bite to eat and the thing goes up again. The euro just retraced 38% Fib from the 1.3870 move of earlier this afternoon. Normal correction. It could have retraced 50% and it would still have been pretty normal. We should head south again soon. In my view, nothing has changed, unpleasant as it is.
So correct you are. Normal technical correction to bring everything back in balance. It is unpleasant, but also something that has to be gone through.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #4,232
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:44am Oct 20, 2011 10:44am
Quoting spzd
So correct you are. Normal technical correction to bring everything back in balance. It is unpleasant, but also something that has to be gone through.
also a nice shorting opportunity for anyone who is not in yet.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,233
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:45am Oct 20, 2011 10:45am
Quoting tianle
Are you guys still confident that the EUR will drop? that was a REALLY strong rally.
That rally was a classic pump and dump
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #4,234
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:48am Oct 20, 2011 10:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
also a nice shorting opportunity for anyone who is not in yet.
Mr.Short
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #4,235
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:48am Oct 20, 2011 10:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
also a nice shorting opportunity for anyone who is not in yet.
Yes. If it get's through this resistance area then that is an indication that the banks are manipulating things again.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #4,236
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:49am Oct 20, 2011 10:49am
I hope so anyway. Some stupid Fed governor is out there running his fat mouth about more stimulus and QE still possibly being on the table. Wall Street loves free money and stimulus talk, so it took them from triple digit loss. EU might raise size of bailout fund to $1.3T. MIGHT, and later, talk about it this weekend, try for it on Wednesday now. Then it will be Friday. How long can they try and prop this up with nothing before markets wake up and realize the emperor has no clothes?
  • #4,237
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:50am Oct 20, 2011 10:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
also a nice shorting opportunity for anyone who is not in yet.
Climbing on a little at a time. I'm fading this rally with small position size. Have 1 foot on the bus.


Edit - Just got my 2nd piece
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #4,238
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:52am Oct 20, 2011 10:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
also a nice shorting opportunity for anyone who is not in yet.
Yup! I tried my luck. Jumped in a bit too soon, but EURCHF long may act as a hedge, in case of some disaster....
  • #4,239
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:53am Oct 20, 2011 10:53am
Quoting Blobik
Yup! I tried my luck. Jumped in a bit too soon, but EURCHF long may act as a hedge, in case of some disaster....
Just bent one of my rules and added to my short.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,240
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:54am Oct 20, 2011 10:54am
Quoting Blobik
Yup! I tried my luck. Jumped in a bit too soon, but EURCHF long may act as a hedge, in case of some disaster....
Glad to see I'm not the only one hedging this whippy bugger with EURCHF today.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
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