USD/JPY Discussion

I must admitted once again..The most boring pair on the year - Hopefully there is a surprise later..

As Sigur said I need yawn to move up this pair

and here I am...intervence once again with double yawning

Like clockwork ... over and over again ;-)

This level gotta hold to give the direction is going - north

this USDJPY is not moving .......need to be patient!

Looking at the weekly chart I have applied an indicator that paints bar in cyanide IF the weekly range has been above the last 30 weekly ranges. For almost two months the price have been lurking around this level for obvious reasons. BoJ have clearly stated that they will take action against the strengthening Yen.

As I see it, there is a higher probability to see this pair trade higher the next weeks when price finally start to move. So I'm long from around this level with a big portion of patience.

Will this pair finally manage to break out of this 2.5 month long channel ? Hmmmm ... based on strong focus of Boj and proposed action plan one cannot but conclude that this will be another failed break.

What else is new ? lol

They indeed have been telling the world that they are monitoring Forex closely and that appropriate action would be taken for more than years. Yesterdays statement showed what they mean by that -- doing more of the same of something that didn't do the job in the first place.

Market is sceptical and, imo, rightfully so.

This is absolute true. But in this case, the R:R is far above average. I like that most of the marked is skeptical, that make me even more sure

Let's sue them bastards

Will Boj take action today or no one knows when they will act?

Thanks

Unfortunately, no one knows when or even if they will intervene.

Imo, the Boj will not intervene in the classical sense of the word. Recent Forex interventions have not lead to structural changes, quite on the contrary, they each led to an even stronger Jpy. Apparently they have come to the conclusion that such is no longer the way to tackle appreciation as it provides no structural results, only short lived spikes and a lasting surge in strenght few days/weeks later. Why would they keep on throwing good money after bad ?

Todays comments by Noda, imo, are a clear indication that they will intervene in a non-classical manner: aiding companies suffering from a strong Jpy, helping them to 'soften' the pain. Markets read the same stuff and will keep on selling each and every spike, as they have done for years, simply because of the fact that they too see the shift in Boj's policy. And, let's face it, it has proven to be a very profitable strategy indeed. I therefore think that this pair will keep on heading lower.

" Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said Friday that his Cabinet is set to sign off this morning on measures to deal with the strong yen. The package will include measures to "soften the pain" of the strong yen on Japanese companies, with special support for small and medium sized businesses."

This from Joel Kruger of Dailyfx.com, one of the few analysts I listen to:

Moving on, although Usd/Jpy has gone nowhere in several weeks, with the market predominantly confined to the 76.00’s and consolidating just over the record highs from August at 75.95, retail traders remain overwhelmingly long the pair at a dramatic ratio of 10:1. While we certainly like the idea of being long this market, with the price trading by cyclical lows and likely due for the formation of a major base, we can not advocate a long position at current levels, with our in-house speculative sentiment index warning of the strong potential for a drop below 75.95 to yet another record low. We see a scenario where all of the retail longs are stopped out to allow for the ratio to normalize before the market finally is ready to carve out a major base. We will therefore be looking to aggressively buy the pair on a dip to fresh record lows after retail longs have been cut.

There are signs on the fundamental front that back up our core bullish stance on Usd/Jpy. According to the Nikkei newspaper, the Japanese government and Bank of Japan will form a team of senior officials to address the strong Yen. Measures proposed to deal with the currency appreciation include (1) expanding financial support for local SMEs; (2) creating a USD100B credit line to banks/companies; (3) supporting construction of energy-saving facilities in Japan. Nikkei also went on to report that no measures, including FX intervention would be precluded, and that the government would consider more EFSF bond purchases in the future.

Seems likely,Thanks for the post mate

However if we keep trade the range like this then whatever it is the month bar shall give us an answer,73-74 still become the next target but am believe that even we going on that level this pair will moves up immediately..expect unexpected,please trade wisely with proper MM guys

Hey Sigur,

Lets have some fun
do you think today daily double low @ 76.62 gonna be hold

How can you call anything on this comatose pair 'fun?'

Gm Mindset,

Unfortunately I don't have a crystal ball. So I honestly do not know whether the 76.62 level will hold. What I merely want to point out is that I do not believe in dollar strenght as Alorente does, nor do I believe bogus stories like the ones Western told us. BTW, were are these guys ? Bet you'll see them again when this pair takes off (however slim chances may be). lol

For me it's simple; Boj is turning ship and does no longer believe that plain old simple Forex intervention will do the trick as it used to do in the old days when EU problems were non existent and US economy was healthy.

The fact that they, time after time, point out that they are closely watching Forex market and willing to act but do nothing is telling for me. Have the impression that Boj focus is now more on how to help companies getting through this Yen strenght.

As always, just my 2 cents !

TOKYO: Japan's cabinet on Friday approved an extra 12-trillion-yen ($156 billion) draft budget to finance measures to reconstruct tsunami-hit regions and help companies fight the strong yen.

The size of the extra budget, which still needs to be approved by the divided parliament, would make it the second-biggest ever following one compiled in 2009 after the global financial crisis.

Yukihisa Fujita, a vice finance minister, has said: "For the Japanese economy to get revitalised, this is an extremely important budget."

The package is the latest government effort to revive the economy, after a four-trillion yen special budget in May and another two-trillion-yen extra budget in July.

The government plans to fund the budget through spending cuts, sales of public assets, tax hikes and use of non-tax revenues as well as bond issuance.

But the series of extra budgets will exacerbate the nation's already dismal fiscal condition, with the overall budget swelling to a record 106.40 trillion.

The bulk of the third supplementary budget for the year to March is earmarked for rebuilding the northern region hit by the March earthquake and tsunami that left 20,000 people dead or missing.

A total of 355.8 billion yen would be used for decontamination and other measures to counter the worst nuclear crisis for 25 years after post-tsunami meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi plant.

The spending plan also includes two-trillion-yen financing for struggling businesses amid the yen's appreciation to historical levels.

It includes 500 billion yen in subsidies to companies which build factories and research facilities in Japan.

The government will also boost its firepower for currency intervention by lifting the limit on issuance of short-term debt by 15 trillion yen to 165 trillion yen for the current fiscal year.

The yen traded at 76.77 to the dollar in Tokyo morning trade Friday, compared with its highest level after World War II of 75.95 yen touched in August.

A strong yen reduces Japanese exporters' earnings when repatriated and pressures them to shift business overseas.

what is comatose bro?do u mean coma?