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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #4,001
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:30am Oct 20, 2011 7:30am
Initial jobless claims in US 403K
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,002
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:38am Oct 20, 2011 7:38am
USDJPY is taking off. Good for me, i´m long. I think the Eur will follow to the downside soon.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,003
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:41am Oct 20, 2011 7:41am
Quoting Alorente
I went to the gym for a couple of hours and all hell broke loose. No damage done. Another shakeout to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. As far as I´m concerned, nothing has changed. In fact, the new attack on the 50% level failed meserably, which makes an upcoming drop even more probable. Still expecting a break of the neckline and a target of 1.3530 which is the 50% retracement of the up move from 10/4, followed by a probable test of the 61% Fib retracement at 1.3438.

Spikes like these are the reason I don´t use stops. I prefer having several...
Good plan alorente. I also have an additional account but not for the same reasons as you. When I request a withdrawal, it usually takes 3 days before they pull the funds from my account and send them to me. However, if I request a transfer to my other account, it is done overnight. So I like to transfer out my profits so that I only ever have my original capital at risk.

I don't use stop loss on my swing and position trades either. I prefer to rescue/recover but in order for that to work, I have to choose a good entry to begin with. For example, I will enter a sell on a swing high after a breakout and not on the breakout. Another way is to have a small initial position (a test position) and then scale in on the first pullback.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,004
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:44am Oct 20, 2011 7:44am
Quoting Alorente
USDJPY is taking off. Good for me, i´m long. I think the Eur will follow to the downside soon.
haha I am in at 76.699

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Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,005
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:44am Oct 20, 2011 7:44am
Quoting Alorente
USDJPY is taking off. Good for me, i´m long. I think the Eur will follow to the downside soon.
afraid it going down again,hopefully would max out today
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #4,006
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:45am Oct 20, 2011 7:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
Looks like my original TP is gonna get hit. I'm glad I got out though. I don't want to be a pig. After all, pigs get slaughtered.
I'm glad I'm out. Caught myself pissed off in a revenge trade and 9 times out of 10 it's a bad idea

Greek stuff you mentioned..... A lot of indecision, kicking the can and infighting IMHO.

Gaddaffi, I think it's a risk on positive but not for oil prices although it wil take a while for them to get production back up. I'll wait for more official confirmation than the new Libian government. They've been wrong too many times on his family members.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #4,007
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:48am Oct 20, 2011 7:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
haha I am in at 76.699

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I´m in since 8 weeks ago at 76.52. It´s been a long wait, but I´ve been trading the range with half my position for nice profit.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,008
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:48am Oct 20, 2011 7:48am
Quoting Alorente
USDJPY is taking off. Good for me, i´m long. I think the Eur will follow to the downside soon.
Careful with the assumption that euro will follow to the downside.
A rise in USD/JPY is usually a sign of the JPY safe haven unwind which signals a possible risk-on sentiment which as you know is usually EUR positive

ALERT: I originally wote risk-off instead of risk-on. I fixed it now. Sorry.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,009
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:52am Oct 20, 2011 7:52am
I'm not going to debate that, thats the downside of democracy. We had a situation in Sweden in the 90's and in the beginning of the century where there were large cutbacks to reduce the debt. I won't try to compare with the Greek situation because even though our situation then was severe there were many things that were different (we actually had a default when we let the SEK float and it plummeted some 30% in a week or two).


Quoting PipTrapper
Okay I agree with you but try and explain that to the rioters and then when you fail, try and convince the politicians that you are right and the rioters are wrong.
The politicians know where their votes come from
  • #4,010
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:55am Oct 20, 2011 7:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
Careful with the assumption that euro will follow to the downside.
A rise in USD/JPY is usually a sign of the JPY safe haven unwind which signals a possible risk-on sentiment which as you know is usually EUR positive

ALERT: I originally wote risk-off instead of risk-on. I fixed it now. Sorry.
Not basing my decision on the Yen. Strictly based on the Euro technicals and S&P.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #4,011
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:55am Oct 20, 2011 7:55am
There is still strong bearish divergence on the daily chart but I would not rule out another test of the 50% fib and long term channel resistance after NY open.

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,012
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:56am Oct 20, 2011 7:56am
Quoting drtorque
PT on the hourly chart, if you combine 3650, and 3670 bottoms --> 3690
i do the viceversa for tops, it yields a pendant.

i think im gonna be greedy and put th limit to 3690
anyways, took my profit right afte the news, below 3770...
hit buy below 3760, but "for some reason" it took 10 pip rise for fxcm to realize, whereas, the other brokers close instantly..

suckers everywhere...

long again now..
  • #4,013
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:58am Oct 20, 2011 7:58am
Quoting Alorente
Not basing my decision on the Yen. Strictly based on the Euro technicals and S&P.
Okay good
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,014
  • Oct 20, 2011 8:00am Oct 20, 2011 8:00am
Like your charts they are so clean and neat. FXCM feed?

Quoting PipTrapper
There is still strong bearish divergence on the daily chart but I would not rule out another test of the 50% fib and long term channel resistance after NY open.

.
  • #4,015
  • Oct 20, 2011 8:00am Oct 20, 2011 8:00am
Quoting drtorque
anyways, took my profit right afte the news, below 3770...
hit buy below 3760, but "for some reason" it took 10 pip rise for fxcm to realize, whereas, the other brokers close instantly..

suckers everywhere...

long again now..
contact fxcm through the myfxcm.co.uk page and tell them you got slipped 10 pips. They may credit your account if they find that it was an execution delay.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,016
  • Oct 20, 2011 8:02am Oct 20, 2011 8:02am
Quoting TheSwede
Like your charts they are so clean and neat. FXCM feed?
actually that is my demo account with Broco on which I do all my main analysis and annotations. I don't like painting up my live charts.
I trade live on fxcm charts.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,017
  • Oct 20, 2011 8:06am Oct 20, 2011 8:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
haha I am in at 76.699

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Nice,

I missed this trip up. Do have a short waiting for your long @ 77.39 w/ SL @ 77.53 for a ride back down to 76.84... I like the ride down, it's a lot less waiting for the bus to pull out.

Have heard rumors of a huge DNT 77.50/76.50 option that's being agressivly defended a few days back. IIRC I caught wind of it on Forexlive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy60.jpg Size: 121 KB
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #4,018
  • Oct 20, 2011 8:18am Oct 20, 2011 8:18am
From CNBC news alerts:
EU summit may be cancelled this weekend and postponed to another date. I guess Germany and France have conflicting political interests. What else is new?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,019
  • Oct 20, 2011 8:19am Oct 20, 2011 8:19am
Details Of EFSF Emerge, However It Is "Too Little, Too Late"

Finally some details of the mythical revised and most certainly Dead on Arrival EFSF program, to be fully announced on Friday, emerge with Retuers bringing the scoop. Here are the preliminary bullets:

EFSF to be able to grant two types of precautionary credit lines, normal and enhanced, based on IMF instruments.
Typical size of both types of EFSF precautionary credit lines for Euro-zone sovereigns could be between 2 and 10 % of GDP according to a document
To be eligible for EFSF precautionary credit lines Euro-zone sovereign must respect EU budget rules, have sustainable debt, external position, no bank solvency problem and seek to reduce macroeconomic imbalances according to a document
Both types of EFSF precautionary credit lines would be for 1 year, renewable for 6 months twice
IMF involvement in design and implementation of EFSF precautionary credit lines will be sought in all cases according to guidelines
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,020
  • Oct 20, 2011 8:23am Oct 20, 2011 8:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
From CNBC news alerts:
EU summit may be cancelled this weekend and postponed to another date. I guess Germany and France have conflicting political interests. What else is new?
Why am I not surprised.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
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