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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #3,921
  • Oct 20, 2011 1:10am Oct 20, 2011 1:10am
Only a push and hold above 1.3750 will give me cause to reconsider my bearish sentiment.

I am pretty sure at 1.55 you would still be bearish.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,922
  • Oct 20, 2011 1:17am Oct 20, 2011 1:17am
Quoting AaronWard
Only a push and hold above 1.3750 will give me cause to reconsider my bearish sentiment.

I am pretty sure at 1.55 you would still be bearish.
I am talking about short term sentiment. My long term is still bearish and at 1.55 it would be even more so.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,923
  • Oct 20, 2011 1:20am Oct 20, 2011 1:20am
Quoting PipTrapper
I am talking about short term sentiment. My long term is still bearish and at 1.55 it would be even more so.
Great thing about your approach is that when you are wrong you don't lose all that much (nothing hopefully) but when you are right you make quite a bit.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,924
  • Oct 20, 2011 1:24am Oct 20, 2011 1:24am
Quoting AaronWard
Great thing about your approach is that when you are wrong you don't lose all that much (nothing hopefully) but when you are right you make quite a bit.
That's the EDGE Aaron. I don't have to be right the majority of the time. I just need a high reward and low risk
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,925
  • Oct 20, 2011 1:24am Oct 20, 2011 1:24am
Morning everyone,

folllowing my previous post :http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post5043639

it's funny how 2011 fall is copying (so far) the 2008 path

saludos!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2011.PNG Size: 387 KB
  • #3,926
  • Oct 20, 2011 1:28am Oct 20, 2011 1:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
CORRECTION: I mis-read the charts. Resistance is at 1.3725/35 and not 1.3710/20

.
Do you suggest a short now then?
  • #3,927
  • Oct 20, 2011 1:38am Oct 20, 2011 1:38am
Quoting josechu
Morning everyone,

folllowing my previous post :http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post5043639

it's funny how 2011 fall is copying (so far) the 2008 path

saludos!
Interesting observation.
I have been following that but I am not putting much weight on it as I do not wish to fall in any bias traps.
I am a bear with conviction right now but I remain nimble.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,928
  • Oct 20, 2011 1:50am Oct 20, 2011 1:50am
You're rigth PT, bias is something that caused me losses in the past!
now trying to be out of that, learning ever day, and this thread is really helpful
thks
  • #3,929
  • Edited 2:06am Oct 20, 2011 1:54am | Edited 2:06am
The results for the 1.7 Billion 2021 bond auction came in at a 1.8 bid to cover ratio (not a good number) and I do not have an exact rate yet but I believe it was 5.4% I will have to check again and post an update.

The point for posting this is the bid to cover which means not much participation. I suspect that the low bid to cover and the 5.4% rate is due to ECB participation. Otherwise they may not have got such a good rate.

UPDATE: Spanish bond yield 5.477%
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,930
  • Oct 20, 2011 1:57am Oct 20, 2011 1:57am
Good morning guys,

we had a very nice fundamental discussion here yesterday and I dont want some thoughts to fall into oblivion. And I also wanted to point those ideas out to those, who havent been here yesterday.

I find foto´s post below very interesting and I suggest you read it. We were talking about impact of Chinas and sovereign monetary policies to this pair.

Here is a summary, but nevertheless, if you are interested in fundamentals, read the post below, and if you are philosophers, like me, read post surrounding it (from Alorente, sisse, ntprz and Fool).

Summary:
In a long term range USD is getting stronger (thats why Fed could run QE and doesnt fear of inflation)
- raising costs of Panda products
- Panda prints money to buy Eur and Gbp, so it weakens USD
- Panda sells AUD and CAD for same reason (I still dont get link to commodities here)

That is fundamental.

Technical point of view, especially corellations with SaP and Dow were examined by ntprz in second attached post. I am currently cutting through this as I aint that good in technicals, yet.

Anyway, I think i got it right, but I suggest you read it.

Regards,

T.

Quoting foto
...
Think of currency manipulation as making political choices about markets you wish to retain. National vital interests are served by predatory mercantilist policy, aka the Panda.

The Panda has linkage with the USD, ...

Quoting ntrprz
...
That is a nice event analysis. But I think the question you have to ask yourself is where will the S&P 500 go next as it has been very positively correlated with EURUSD. ...
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,931
  • Oct 20, 2011 2:01am Oct 20, 2011 2:01am
Good morning,

Taking a short from a retest of the breakout last night with SL just above the supply zone on the 15 targeting todays lows.

Limit entry hit @ 1.3741
SL 1.3761
Target 1.3681

I'm going to set up a short term long just below my target with that nice bounce down there.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #3,932
  • Oct 20, 2011 2:03am Oct 20, 2011 2:03am
With the last H4 chart I posted, I mentioned the next bar would be red. Now 4 bars later we are still seeing red. That is the beauty of Heikin Ashi candles, they are very easy to follow. I went short on the color change, and will stay short until the trendline on the RSI (Bottom Indicator) is crossed. The trendline is very slanted so the break could be many days from now. We continue to see divergences on both the RSI and THV, and the Head & Shoulders is completely formed. Let´s break the neckline now and things will really get exciting. Many thousands are watching that H&S right now. Most are still not in on the short side and they will enter when the neckline falls. It wont be easy because we have the confluence of the Coral (60 EMA) and the 200 SMA plus the 136.80 support level, all coinciding with the neckline, but I believe it will happen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,933
  • Oct 20, 2011 2:13am Oct 20, 2011 2:13am
I'm always use USDSGD pairs to measure USD Strenght so far,as we know singapore has a strong economic fundamental and once USDSGD moving up,without a doubt USD showing real strenght

From the chart below we can see USDSGD was break the longterm downtrend and going up 1000 pips over and this pair correct more than 600 pips and now found a support @ 1.2570..and started going up slowly.I'm believe Its time USD might begin shot another higher level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #3,934
  • Oct 20, 2011 2:17am Oct 20, 2011 2:17am
Quoting FXMindset
I'm always use USDSGD pairs to measure USD Strenght so far,as we know singapore has a strong economic fundamental and once USDSGD moving up,without a doubt USD showing real strenght

From the chart below we can see USDSGD was break the longterm downtrend and going up 1000 pips over and this pair correct more than 600 pips and now found a support @ 1.2570..and started going up slowly.I'm believe Its time USD might begin shot another higher level
Yes. One more of the many factors that point in that direction. It is hard to find a technical basis that will support going long now. When it walks like a duck, it quacks like a duck and it looks like a duck, almost surely it is a duck.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,935
  • Oct 20, 2011 2:26am Oct 20, 2011 2:26am
Well I dont like this upwards swing at all. As if it doesnt stop right now, it sets H1 Elliot wave point C above point A. Which could suggest continuation of upwards move.

I hope I will be able to post charts from work soon, trying to bend netdania.com to my will.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,936
  • Oct 20, 2011 2:37am Oct 20, 2011 2:37am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Well I dont like this upwards swing at all. As if it doesnt stop right now, it sets H1 Elliot wave point C above point A. Which could suggest continuation of upwards move.

I hope I will be able to post charts from work soon, trying to bend netdania.com to my will.

T.
ECB is at it again. Shoveling truckloads of dollars into euros. I call this yet another potential shorting opportunity.

Now look at how the H1 candle was rejected. Will this resistance hold?

I expect volatility and I welcome it but it can be a double edge sword.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,937
  • Oct 20, 2011 2:37am Oct 20, 2011 2:37am
Stopped out -20 pips

That's a US$ dump across the board

EUR/CHF isn't following. it's going down
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #3,938
  • Oct 20, 2011 2:38am Oct 20, 2011 2:38am
Published the EFSF guideline document
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...1-66a97a507ce2

EDIT:Now everyone just have to read it. Guess it contained something unexpected.
Whats left for the weekend (was it this weekend) summit now?
  • #3,939
  • Oct 20, 2011 2:41am Oct 20, 2011 2:41am
Quoting PipKiller
Stopped out -20 pips

That's a US$ dump across the board

EUR/CHF isn't following. it's going down
USDCHF

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uch-h1.gif Size: 20 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,940
  • Oct 20, 2011 2:42am Oct 20, 2011 2:42am
Quoting emirler
http://c1110.hizliresim.com/q/n/1nj3.png
EW counts is trying. ero / usa bölümünede just put the same reason, processing unrecognized. I wonder why?
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