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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #3,821
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:35pm Oct 19, 2011 3:35pm
Quoting The Fool
Nov 7, 2011 should be a date to watch imo. Next week the summit to save the euro will not fully deliver (more can-kicking), and the markets will start to sell off. The G20 heads will hatch out something truely unexpected in Cannes, and announcements will be made after the markets close on Friday the 4th. 11/7 = the Mother of all Black Mondays. I am selling all risk assets I have the last week or so and will be short the euro when it counts.
That sounds like a better plan than my buying a Trichet voodoo doll and stabbing him with a pin and roasting it over a candle until he announces a surprise rate cut.

That is a nice event analysis. But I think the question you have to ask yourself is where will the S&P 500 go next as it has been very positively correlated with EURUSD. I mean, I have a nice short going today, saw the levels, reworked that we might get a triple digit drop on the dow, and as the EUR is sinking and the Dow tanking, some computer kicked in, or something and the dow bounced almost 40 points in a tick taking out a chunk of my profits.

The dow chart looks like it is consolidating for a downward move, so that is where I think the Euro will go. But again, it is the 4th quarter, lot of money piling in trying to get a return to make the year's numbers and the year's bonus. The Euro will weigh that down, only if concrete, undeniable shortcomings in the plan can get past everyone with their hands over their ears going "LA LA LA LA LA" on wall street and across the globe. It might take a failed plan in November and more subsequent failures as the Euro it seems will be given every chance before a sell off, if only because Mr. Dollar is not without flaws itself.

Today's market action and negative Euro news should rattle asia. And Amex and Ebay are both trading off after hours. That and the Dow/S&P have been stuck in a trading range that it was basically at the top of yesterday. Two tries to break through failed, normally that is all it gets so we could go to 11050 on the Dow and 1150 or so on S&P before it rebounds, that should get us the down move on Euro to 1.35 and that should happen before Nov. 7. But the Euro going to 1.29 or something could certainly happen from there if what you describe happens.
  • #3,822
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:39pm Oct 19, 2011 3:39pm
Quoting foto
Hi Tom,
My brain is starting to fry too.

Think of currency manipulation as making political choices about markets you wish to retain. National vital interests are served by predatory mercantilist policy, aka the Panda.

The Panda has linkage with the USD, so if the USD goes up, it in effect raises the cost of product originating in Pandaland. On top of that the Yuan is being pressured by the US to appreciate. So the Panda now is getting hit with a double whammy, a stronger USD and a stronger Yuan/USD. They are heavily reliant upon exports to...
Thank you.



I'm continuing to trail my stop with the 20ema base line of the bollenger bands with each candle close. SL now @ 1.3765. +81 pips is the worst I can do now, we'll see how much more she can give me. I'll take all she gives and not ask for more.

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #3,823
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:40pm Oct 19, 2011 3:40pm
Quoting ntrprz
That sounds like a better plan than my buying a Trichet voodoo doll and stabbing him with a pin and roasting it over a candle until he announces a surprise rate cut.

That is a nice event analysis. But I think the question you have to ask yourself is where will the S&P 500 go next as it has been very positively correlated with EURUSD. I mean, I have a nice short going today, saw the levels, reworked that we might get a triple digit drop on the dow, and as the EUR is sinking and the Dow tanking, some computer kicked in, or something and the dow...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,824
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:43pm Oct 19, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting ntrprz
That sounds like a better plan than my buying a Trichet voodoo doll and stabbing him with a pin and roasting it over a candle until he announces a surprise rate cut.

That is a nice event analysis. But I think the question you have to ask yourself is where will the S&P 500 go next as it has been very positively correlated with EURUSD. I mean, I have a nice short going today, saw the levels, reworked that we might get a triple digit drop on the dow, and as the EUR is sinking and the Dow tanking, some computer kicked in, or something and the dow...

I have a feeling that after Red October, we'll get a Thanksgiving stuffing before the Santa Claus rally
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #3,825
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:43pm Oct 19, 2011 3:43pm
I´m still laughing. Seriously though, I hold half of my shorts on the S&P and the other half on EURUSD. The next couple of days should be a lot of fun.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,826
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:46pm Oct 19, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting Alorente
In reality, the age we live in is an innocent victim of our technological advancement. Technology produces too much with less workers. Consequently we face deflation with permanent unemployment.
Interesting post. I agree to some extend only.

Although I understand where are you coming with that comment I have exactly the opposite view. We live in the age that technological advancement have democratize the opportunities for most of the world (look at all emerging economies) creating a vast new set opportunities, services and industries that must be fulfilled (it has always happen in each stage since the wheel was invented.)

Your comments make sense for old manufacturing and factory sectors but more than 70% of employment and 80% of GDP in the rich world come from Services.

More importantly and the argument that can't be hiden is that the most technological advancement countries are the richest in the world and have the LOWEST unemployment rates ...We can stay in the theoretical level but those are hard cold and irrefutable facts.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #3,827
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:46pm Oct 19, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting foto
Hi Tom,
My brain is starting to fry too.

Think of currency manipulation ...
Beautifull post indeed. And I get it. Almost. I would say I get 80% now. Yet I am too tired. Printing it and taking to bath.

Thx for such a nice answer, cya tomorrow.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,828
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:47pm Oct 19, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting Alorente
In reality, the age we live in is an innocent victim of our technological advancement. Technology produces too much with less workers. Consequently we face deflation with permanent unemployment. I´m not sure what we are going through was historically avoidable. A similar thing happened in England with the Industrial Revolution. It will take a long time for the world to adapt to this new reality. The real tragedy is faced by our young, with a tough future ahead. I´m glad I´m past the stage of bringing up my children.
There are huge issues facing humanity that will require technological innovation if they are to be dealt with. The Age of Oil is going to be over - what will replace it? Large swaths of the planet's human cargo still live in poverty, in ignorance. Isn't there a way out of that? I'm a civil engineer, and I walk around cities in the USA all the time, looking at crumbling infrastructure and saying to my unfortunate companions, who hear it all to often, "Wow, this place is falling apart - why can't we do better here?" There is huge amounts of work to be done, everywhere, - building, teaching, innovating - and there is only a lack of will to undertake that.

A lack of will and a lack of vision. We need to change, change our political machinery, change our financial institutions, but the entrenched status quo will resist. But change is inevitable. Any student of human history should not expect any guarantees that it will be pretty.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,829
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:49pm Oct 19, 2011 3:49pm
Take care Tom

PK
  • #3,830
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:50pm Oct 19, 2011 3:50pm
I can't find a Trichet voodoo doll but there's a Sarcozy voodoo doll and a Merkel barbie available it'll make you feel better
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #3,831
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:56pm Oct 19, 2011 3:56pm
Quoting PipKiller
I can't find a Trichet voodoo doll but there's a Sarcozy voodoo doll and a Merkel barbie available it'll make you feel better
What will they think of next?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,832
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:57pm Oct 19, 2011 3:57pm
Quoting The Fool
There are huge issues facing humanity that will require technological innovation if they are to be dealt with. The Age of Oil is going to be over - what will replace it? Large swaths of the planet's human cargo still live in poverty, in ignorance. Isn't there a way out of that? I'm a civil engineer, and I walk around cities in the USA all the time, looking at crumbling infrastructure and saying to my unfortunate companions, who hear it all to often, "Wow, this place is falling apart - why can't we do better here?" There is huge amounts of work...
I totally agree with you and Sisse. Technology is great for humanity. The old manufacturing mentality is just that, old... Services supplied by everyone to everyone is our future. But... There is an inevitable period of trauma and adaptation that society has to live through, and that time is now. That is what I meant by being innocent victims to the times. It is a good and necessary change, but it will produce a lot of pain and dislocation. We have to embrace the better future while at the same time be caring and understanding with those that are dislocated by it.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,833
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:57pm Oct 19, 2011 3:57pm
Quoting Alorente
In reality, the age we live in is an innocent victim of our technological advancement. Technology produces too much with less workers. Consequently we face deflation with permanent unemployment. I´m not sure what we are going through was historically avoidable. A similar thing happened in England with the Industrial Revolution. It will take a long time for the world to adapt to this new reality. The real tragedy is faced by our young, with a tough future ahead. I´m glad I´m past the stage of bringing up my children.
The world will adapt quickly. People said the same thing about industrial jobs in the US going to first Japan, then Taiwan, then Mexico, then the Mexicans came here and took the jobs outright, etc. As you say, it was not historically avoidable, the change is that instead of broad displacements happening at hundred year intervals, then 50, then 20, we may be looking at 5 years being a good career. What will change, I hope is that we quit trying to educate our children the same way it was done 100 years ago. Traditional education will not work, the K-12, then expensive liberal arts college education, then more expensive focused masters and post grad degrees is over. People just don't realize it. Spending 100k on a college degree is retarded and people have to face that continuing education and retraining and workplace mobility are the new norm. The idea that you should take on 100k so you can party and put off adulthood while sleeping through class with a hangover for 4 years is going to have to change.

For instance, I think facebook's and google's valuations are silly. They will be largely obsolete in 5 years, yet they are valued on years of future earnings growth that at some point simply won't occur. Maybe they adapt, but some other computer genius will be along with something that combines all those with something the kids really want in 2 or 3 years, and today's google is yesterday's yahoo. Microsofts will happen every couple years, and burn out just as quickly unless like microsoft, they can manage to make enough and gain enough market share to be in position to buy the next big thing before it hits.

That is why so many of these "occupiers" are college grads who want their debts wiped out. There is now more student loan debt in the US than credit card debt. Most got a raw deal, certainly not what they paid for. Education will have to have a fundamental technological improvement and solution, and it will have to cost much much less in the future. Someone like Buma will never go to college, and will out earn many of those people.

I was just talking to someone today about this. Was there even Forex 15 years ago? The internet barely worked. Not like there is now, I have a degree in finance and I have never heard of most of these charting methods. Where are the trading pits on Wall Street? Where are the slips of paper? Times change, progress roles on, and people end up doing different things. The factory worker of tomorrow, is the computer programmer as technology advances, everything will need more and more programs.

The only possible offset to low wages from emerging markets driving down the cost of labor across the globe, are higher costs from inputs such as energy prices. It will have to cost more to ship it from Africa to Europe, than to just make it in Europe and pay a "living wage", or it will be made in Africa, or China, or wherever people don't make any money now.

Either way, what we think today, will be the past very quickly.
  • #3,834
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:58pm Oct 19, 2011 3:58pm
Quoting ntrprz
That sounds like a better plan than my buying a Trichet voodoo doll and stabbing him with a pin and roasting it over a candle until he announces a surprise rate cut.
My sides are hurting. I think I pee'd myself laughing
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,835
  • Oct 19, 2011 4:01pm Oct 19, 2011 4:01pm
Quoting The Fool
A lack of will and a lack of vision. We need to change, change our political machinery, change our financial institutions, but the entrenched status quo will resist.
I agree mate.

Only 3 years ago with the same technology advancement we were in happy mode, US, UK and most of the rich world unemployment hovering the natural levels below 4% and even Spain (from the previous poster) was at 8%....the playing field hasn't chance because of society and technological innovation but because of the mismanagement in the economy.

If we need to point the finger to something and look for solutions is to the disastrous economic mismanagement of the governments and the abuses of some bastard financial institutions not on technological progress...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #3,836
  • Oct 19, 2011 4:08pm Oct 19, 2011 4:08pm
Quoting sisse
If we need to point the finger to something and look for solutions is to the disastrous economic mismanagement of the governments and the abuses of some bastard financial institutions not on technological progress...
Whilst I agree wholeheartedly that technological progress is not the cause of the current situation, one cannot deny that it is in fact a major catalyst.
Yes it is the incompetent governments that have grossly mismanaged the transition where they on one hand provide subsidies and incentives for technological advancement whilst ignoring the screaming evidence that competent "change management" goes hand in hand with any such transition.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,837
  • Oct 19, 2011 4:08pm Oct 19, 2011 4:08pm
Quoting ntrprz
The world will adapt quickly. People said the same thing about industrial jobs in the US going to first Japan, then Taiwan, then Mexico, then the Mexicans came here and took the jobs outright, etc. As you say, it was not historically avoidable, the change is that instead of broad displacements happening at hundred year intervals, then 50, then 20, we may be looking at 5 years being a good career. What will change, I hope is that we quit trying to educate our children the same way it was done 100 years ago. Traditional education will not work,...
What a wonderful post. I am saving it and using parts of it in my day to day. Great ability to sinthesize in a few words what we are currently living. Almost as good as the Ben voodoo doll bit...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,838
  • Oct 19, 2011 4:12pm Oct 19, 2011 4:12pm
Quoting Alorente
What a wonderful post. I am saving it and using parts of it in my day to day. Great ability to sinthesize in a few words what we are currently living. Almost as good as the Ben voodoo doll bit...
Alorente, Please check your PM. Thanks
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,839
  • Oct 19, 2011 4:14pm Oct 19, 2011 4:14pm
Quoting sisse
I agree mate.

Only 3 years ago with the same technology advancement we were in happy mode, US, UK and most of the rich world unemployment hovering the natural levels below 4% and even Spain (from the previous poster) was at 8%....the playing field hasn't chance because of society and technological innovation but because of the mismanagement in the economy.

If we need to point the finger to something and look for solutions is to the disastrous economic mismanagement of the governments and the abuses of some bastard financial institutions not...
Yes. You just put the finger on the crux of the problem. Our democracies have failed. Maybe due to apathy, lack of participation or whatever, but the reality is that the current system is untenable. We are nearing the modern version of the French Revolution. There won´t be blood but there will be changes. Lots of them...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,840
  • Oct 19, 2011 4:25pm Oct 19, 2011 4:25pm
You guys have written some good stuff here, its a breath of fresh air to what i normally hear form most people on a day to day basis who think things will stay jolly forever.

Democracy is not the holy grail that we are told it is (imho), the public is naive and greedy, they will vote usually with their own short term interests at heart rather than the future of their county.

Regarding there being "no blood", I would not bet on it, but I hope I'm wrong.
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