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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #3,801
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:47pm Oct 19, 2011 2:47pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
I am using 1 H for next possible entry for short. I posted much earlier that I want nothing to do with longs right now. I would rather kiss my dog on the lips than expose myself with a wacky long.....unless a quick BUMA SNIPE

I like to catch best position for most pips for position trades to load up for the big.........well you know............


http://youtu.be/-22tna7KHzI
you mean this?

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Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,802
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:47pm Oct 19, 2011 2:47pm
Hi Alorente, I agree with you that the Euro project has to make some hard decisions.
If the economic recovery was sufficent then debt service would be adequate. We just keep seeing time after time that debt service and lack of growth drains the very resources that are needed to get things going again.
I am in the camp that we are in for an extended deflationary period until sustainable debt levels are returned to. So the future should continue with the unwinding of debt whether by default or money printing as the only outcomes.

This should remain an over riding and dominant economic event for an extended period, most likely several years.
Truly wish it was not going to happen. I trade in alignment with this macro view. Just the way I position trades.
  • #3,803
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:49pm Oct 19, 2011 2:49pm
We're getting some short coverings of equities into the close of NY. Maybe it will be just in time for the intraday traders to cash in on some profits with a last minute sell-off
T minus 11 minutes
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,804
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:49pm Oct 19, 2011 2:49pm
PT AMEN!
  • #3,805
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:49pm Oct 19, 2011 2:49pm
Quoting PipTrapper
you mean this?

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Nice chart
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #3,806
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:58pm Oct 19, 2011 2:58pm
Today is also the 24th anniversary of Black Monday

Inserted Video
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #3,807
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:01pm Oct 19, 2011 3:01pm
Quoting PipTrapper
you mean this?

.
Pipkiller my Bro posted my Video. that's what I meant! Thanks PK!
  • #3,808
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:01pm Oct 19, 2011 3:01pm
Quoting foto
Hi Alorente, I agree with you that the Euro project has to make some hard decisions.
If the economic recovery was sufficent then debt service would be adequate. We just keep seeing time after time that debt service and lack of growth drains the very resources that are needed to get things going again.
I am in the camp that we are in for an extended deflationary period until sustainable debt levels are returned to. So the future should continue with the unwinding of debt whether by default or money printing as the only outcomes.

This should remain...
I agree with you totally. I can´t believe it when the "experts" say that we are entering a period of stagflation. When I learned economics, the definition of inflation was: "Too much money chasing too few goods". We now live in a world of too many goods being produced and not enough money in the pockets of the middle class to buy them. That is Deflation in my view. I also believe, like you, that deflation is a long term illness. It will take the western world a decade or longer to come to grips with it. By then, the center of the world will not be in London or New York, it will be in Beijing.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,809
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:05pm Oct 19, 2011 3:05pm
Cmon Fool. Fundamental discussion here. Stop lurking and post . I cant, I got exhausted by thinking about fotos posts and I dont understand that commodity currency issue. Would be glad if you expanded on that guys.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,810
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:07pm Oct 19, 2011 3:07pm
Amex reports today after NY close
came in better at $1.03ps vs estimated $0.90ps
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,811
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:12pm Oct 19, 2011 3:12pm
Alorente,
Am not convinced on the Beijing thing.
The constant currency manipulation by the Panda is a sign of weakness.
They are shoring up their domestic economy at the expense of the outside world.
The rulers of China are afraid of something they will not be able to control if their masses needs are not met.

The reason the Soviets allowed for disolution was that the oligarchs where able to retain power by controling the commerce. Putin is just a different form of Soviet leader.

Likewise China is allowing economic changes to occur, so as to prevent the overthrow of communism in China. Better half a loaf of absolute power then no loaf at all. I just am a bit cynical when it comes to believing that China opening slightly to the world is a result of good heartedness.
Politicaly it is the way to retain power for the elite.
  • #3,812
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:13pm Oct 19, 2011 3:13pm
Quoting PipKiller
Today is also the 24th anniversary of Black Monday
Nov 7, 2011 should be a date to watch imo. Next week the summit to save the euro will not fully deliver (more can-kicking), and the markets will start to sell off. The G20 heads will hatch out something truely unexpected in Cannes, and announcements will be made after the markets close on Friday the 4th. 11/7 = the Mother of all Black Mondays. I am selling all risk assets I have the last week or so and will be short the euro when it counts.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,813
  • Edited 3:43pm Oct 19, 2011 3:13pm | Edited 3:43pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Cmon Fool. Fundamental discussion here. Stop lurking and post . (...)
T.
Yep, You're right.The only voice missing in our little "fundamental chorus" is Fool Come on bro, I am looking forward to your comment too, as you always point out some new things
  • #3,814
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:16pm Oct 19, 2011 3:16pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Amex reports today after NY close
came in better at $1.03ps vs estimated $0.90ps
Sorry shorts, my bad. I used my card to much the last few months. Wait..I'm short!!!
  • #3,815
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:21pm Oct 19, 2011 3:21pm
Quoting ntrprz
Sorry shorts, my bad. I used my card to much the last few months. Wait..I'm short!!!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,816
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:22pm Oct 19, 2011 3:22pm
Quoting Alorente
...We now live in a world of too many goods being produced and not enough money in the pockets of the middle class to buy them. That is Deflation in my view....
Thats why Bernanke tried to convince politicians to accompany his QE with fiscal stimuls.
QE went well, it boosted the markets, but it failed to boost consumer spending as no money arrived to middle class.

I would still be glad if someone expanded on that commodity currency selling issue. foto? Are you talking about sovereigns selling their foreign reserves, which are mainly held in USD and about connection of USD to commodities? I still dont get this thing precisely.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,817
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:23pm Oct 19, 2011 3:23pm
Quoting ntrprz
Sorry shorts, my bad. I used my card to much the last few months. Wait..I'm short!!!
You just stepped on my line as I was writing it. I was really blaming my wife but ...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,818
  • Edited 3:37pm Oct 19, 2011 3:26pm | Edited 3:37pm
Hi Tom,
My brain is starting to fry too.

Think of currency manipulation as making political choices about markets you wish to retain. National vital interests are served by predatory mercantilist policy, aka the Panda.

The Panda has linkage with the USD, so if the USD goes up, it in effect raises the cost of product originating in Pandaland. On top of that the Yuan is being pressured by the US to appreciate. So the Panda now is getting hit with a double whammy, a stronger USD and a stronger Yuan/USD. They are heavily reliant upon exports to survive, raising prices in a slowing global economy is not going to help sales.

So they are now faced with domestic inflation resulting from inflating domestic money supply (printing Yuan to buy foreign currencies) So printing Yuan has to be a policy that must be curtailed. But they also need to keep the exports going so as not to collapse the domestic economy, which is also running on a credit bubble.

They therefore will use currency reserves already in place, ie holdings in Aud and Cad to buy Euros and GBP so as to lessen the stronger USD. Thus they delay for some time sharp price appreciation of Panda exports.

Sure the hell hope this makes sense to you, as it makes sense to me and if I am the only one who it does, I have a problem.

Addendum: So if we see extended selling in major commodity currencies then a source of that selling is possibly by you know who. From those proceeds, time is bought to slow the decent of target markets. (Euro)

At some point the reservoir runs dry and then we may see a sharp move.
I think that sovereign intervention is exhibited when a major currency gets hit with ongoing 10 pip spikes that seemingly come out of nowhere after trading is in a normal pattern. Price action is a visual thing, but how many times have you seen a USD bull trend beginning and then it is stopped dead in its tracks by out of nowhere selling of USD's

Am not a believer that it is all just the market. Someone is acting intentionaly to weaken the USD. How many small traders jump on a trend after it gets confirmed only to become cannon fodder as the Panda drives their stops the other way.
  • #3,819
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:29pm Oct 19, 2011 3:29pm
Quoting The Fool
Nov 7, 2011 should be a date to watch imo. Next week the summit to save the euro will not fully deliver (more can-kicking), and the markets will start to sell off. The G20 heads will hatch out something truely unexpected in Cannes, and announcements will be made after the markets close on Friday the 4th. 11/7 = the Mother of all Black Mondays. I am selling all risk assets I have the last week or so and will be short the euro when it counts.
AMEN!
  • #3,820
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:30pm Oct 19, 2011 3:30pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Thats why Bernanke tried to convince politicians to accompany his QE with fiscal stimuls.
QE went well, it boosted the markets, but it failed to boost consumer spending as no money arrived to middle class.

I would still be glad if someone expanded on that commodity currency selling issue. foto? Are you talking about sovereigns selling their foreign reserves, which are mainly held in USD and about connection of USD to commodities? I still dont get this thing precisely.

T.
In reality, the age we live in is an innocent victim of our technological advancement. Technology produces too much with less workers. Consequently we face deflation with permanent unemployment. I´m not sure what we are going through was historically avoidable. A similar thing happened in England with the Industrial Revolution. It will take a long time for the world to adapt to this new reality. The real tragedy is faced by our young, with a tough future ahead. I´m glad I´m past the stage of bringing up my children.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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