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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #3,781
  • Oct 19, 2011 1:54pm Oct 19, 2011 1:54pm
France's Sarkozy Says Euro Zone Talks Stalled: Reuters

Stalled? Hmmm okay
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,782
  • Oct 19, 2011 1:56pm Oct 19, 2011 1:56pm
Quoting PipKiller
Bounced like a dead cat @ 1.374 demand on 15

+110 now

Moving stop down to 1.3783 which is the 20 ema baseline on the bollinger bands on the 15
Nice setting of support man. I had 1,372 as mondays low and it didnt touch. Now i see it. 15 min chart rejected this level several times today. Thx for tip.

T

EDIT: rejected it yesterday.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,783
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:06pm Oct 19, 2011 2:06pm
Quoting spzd
Price hit my daily pivot and was strongly rejected. Did not expect that much rejection.
Oh yea.

And a textbook perfect example of re-test of a demand level that is now supply after the breakout on the 15. Would have made a great breakout entry..... Or a place to add another position that I missed while making something to eat in the kitchen.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15_update1.jpg Size: 140 KB


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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #3,784
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:08pm Oct 19, 2011 2:08pm
Latest chart on THV4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: rbull.png Size: 76 KB
  • #3,785
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:13pm Oct 19, 2011 2:13pm
It's risk off people
Careful with your longs

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,786
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:14pm Oct 19, 2011 2:14pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Latest chart on THV4
I use THV4 also and I see it quite differently. The Slow Trix is just now turning down on the H4. We will cross the 0 Trix line and the Slow Trix. We are headed down as long as the RSI remains under the trendline drawn on the attached chart (Bottom indicator).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd h4.jpg Size: 112 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,787
  • Edited 2:22pm Oct 19, 2011 2:19pm | Edited 2:22pm
Quoting Alorente
I use THV4 also and I see it quite differently. The Slow Trix is just now turning down on the H4. We will cross the 0 Trix line and the Slow Trix. We are headed down as long as the RSI remains under the trendline drawn on the attached chart (Bottom indicator).
Correct amundo Bro...... for the 4 hour but the trix is in bull area on 1 hour TF and fast trix in oversold.

FORGOT: IMHO RSI indie lags more than trix.
  • #3,788
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:21pm Oct 19, 2011 2:21pm
Quoting PipTrapper
It's risk off people
Careful with your longs

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5

.
So much for all those hedge funds doing the buy and hold with commodities.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,789
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:24pm Oct 19, 2011 2:24pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Correct amundo Bro...... for the 4 hour but the trix is in bull area on 1 hour TF and fast trix in oversold.
As Pip Trader just said, watch out with long trades at this time. Technically and fundamentally it is dangerous to be long at this time.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,790
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:25pm Oct 19, 2011 2:25pm
Quoting Alorente
I use THV4 also and I see it quite differently. The Slow Trix is just now turning down on the H4. We will cross the 0 Trix line and the Slow Trix. We are headed down as long as the RSI remains under the trendline drawn on the attached chart (Bottom indicator).
And this is how I see it on H4

- The small bounce we are in is a bounce off the 200ema (yellow)
- I have no bullish divergence on my charts according to MacD
- Stochastics is pointing down
- Next major demand area (of last accumulation) starts at the 38.2% fib at 1.3680
- The only other possible bounce I see after this is the 50ema (red) but once below the 200ema (yellow), it should serve as strong resistance
- Risk-off sentiment in on the bearish side also.
- I also see major money flow on my other charts going to USD mostly and JPY secondarily.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h4.gif Size: 25 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,791
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:26pm Oct 19, 2011 2:26pm
Euro is trading very heavy. These are big orders hitting and overcoming the support that is coming from sovereigns attempting to shore up the Euro. Yes I do not believe we have free markets as there are sovereigns who have agendas.

Across the board there remains great weakness in the US economy. A few bright spots in the twelve reporting districts, but overall the summary page of the Beige book shows a recovery level that lacks vitality. It is worth a read even for techies, to go through the book and read the individual summary lead off for each reporting district.

It will be a long hard slog to get enough world growth to support debt laden countries.

This debt crisis is not going away any time soon without stronger recovery in the US and Europe. Whether it overwhelms all attempts to shore up Sovereigns will be coming up as a valid question.

The EFFS results are limited by how deep the pockets are to do a bailout. There does not appear to be enough money available and going into hock for Germany to hold the Euro together is a political choice that Merkel is unprepared to do.
  • #3,792
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:27pm Oct 19, 2011 2:27pm
Quoting PipTrapper
It's risk off people
Careful with your longs

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5

.
Very risk off into the NY close and currenies are playing catch up.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #3,793
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:27pm Oct 19, 2011 2:27pm
Quoting PipTrapper
And this is how I see it on H4

- The small bounce we are in is a bounce off the 200ema (yellow)
- I have no bullish divergence on my charts according to MacD
- Stochastics is pointing down
- Next major demand area (of last accumulation) starts at the 38.2% fib at 1.3680
- The only other possible bounce I see after this is the 50ema (red) but once below the 200ema (yellow), it should serve as strong resistance
- Risk-off sentiment in on the bearish side also.
- I also see major money flow on my other charts going to USD mostly and JPY secondarily.

....
I second that 100%.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,794
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:29pm Oct 19, 2011 2:29pm
Well..Closed for 90 pips..just come back from singing ~
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #3,795
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:33pm Oct 19, 2011 2:33pm
Quoting foto
Euro is trading very heavy. These are big orders hitting and overcoming the support that is coming from sovereigns attempting to shore up the Euro. Yes I do not believe we have free markets as there are sovereigns who have agendas.

Across the board there remains great weakness in the US economy. A few bright spots in the twelve reporting districts, but overall the summary page of the Beige book shows a recovery level that lacks vitality. It is worth a read even for techies, to go through the book and read the individual summary lead off for each...
It is not a matter of Merkel wanting to do it or not. The German voters will not stand for it and politically it is a dead issue. Merkel knows it, Sarkozy knows it also but he is facing an earlier election so he has to play the part that it is solvable. The reality is that the Euro as we know it is history, much to my chagrin because I live in Spain and most of my investments are held here. It is now just a matter of how far they can keep kicking the can down the road before the markets remove the can.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,796
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:34pm Oct 19, 2011 2:34pm
VIX @ $35 +10%
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #3,797
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:37pm Oct 19, 2011 2:37pm
Since what is posted here does not make any difference in the market.
There is some freedom in putting our personal interpretations on a post.

I think there is selling of commodity currencies as those sovereigns who heavily intervene are drawing down the piggy bank of reserves stored in commodity currency accounts. To fund interventions in vital markets such as the Euro.

Of note is the rise in GBP/CAD Euro/CAD recent extended selling bouts in the Aud.

Since no sovereign has unlimited reserves if these get exhausted then support levels for the Euro will be to costly too defend.
  • #3,798
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:39pm Oct 19, 2011 2:39pm
what am see now a long nose bearish bar which point down direction..lets see if today bar close below today open then am might confirm the next move is down
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #3,799
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:41pm Oct 19, 2011 2:41pm
I am using 1 H for next possible entry for short. I posted much earlier that I want nothing to do with longs right now. I would rather kiss my dog on the lips than expose myself with a wacky long.....unless a quick BUMA SNIPE

I like to catch best position for most pips for position trades to load up for the big.........well you know............


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  • #3,800
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:46pm Oct 19, 2011 2:46pm
Quoting foto
Since what is posted here does not make any difference in the market.
There is some freedom in putting our personal interpretations on a post.

I think there is selling of commodity currencies as those sovereigns who heavily intervene are drawing down the piggy bank of reserves stored in commodity currency accounts. To fund interventions in vital markets such as the Euro.

Of note is the rise in GBP/CAD Euro/CAD recent extended selling bouts in the Aud.

[b]Since no sovereign has unlimited reserves if these get exhausted then support levels...
There is a saying on Wall street that if you cannot sell what you want, you sell what you can including your grandmother's necklace. I suspect the euro sovereigns are selling the American T-Bills they are holding and don't forget that the Fed is also funneling USD to the ECB to be converted to Euros. However that liquidity can only be provided against valid collateral from the banks who request it. "How long can they hold out" is a good question indeed.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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