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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #3,681
  • Oct 19, 2011 7:46am Oct 19, 2011 7:46am
Quoting AaronWard
Ah.... yup, China....
Dunno if you agree or disagree . Yet US is huge exporter mainly because of Fed printing money. If it wasnt, ... well, I said what I think. It is an inflation race and it has always been since 1970s.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,682
  • Oct 19, 2011 7:51am Oct 19, 2011 7:51am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Dunno if you agree or disagree . Yet US is huge exporter mainly because of Fed printing money. If it wasnt, ... well, I said what I think. It is an inflation race and it has always been since 1970s.

T.
Really a joke. I have put a lot out there about China. Pages and pages of stuff.

The reality is that the biggest beneficiary of a low Yuan is US and European multinationals.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,683
  • Oct 19, 2011 7:53am Oct 19, 2011 7:53am
In response.
I am a slow typer thus the length of delay to make a post.

Tom all information about trade factors that influence economic conditions are meaningful in evaluating prospects for gdp growth and sustaining of interest rate differentials. As well as an idea of trade flows which affect money flows which affect currency rates.
As to currency valuations, I think that goes to the heart of current Euro area difficulties. The disparity between peripheral countries ability to generate internationaly competitive products and core countries abilities to sell to a globalized world economy is causing the internal discord in Euroland.
Standards of living are being profoundly challenged by all those who cannot run fast enough or do not have vast slave populations to draw upon for cheap labor.

Aaron, in deflations money is sat upon and not employed. Thus the rate of turnover of money in an economy (velocity) is lessened and the GDP which is created by a debt creation mechanism (fractal banking system) stumbles. Without confidence in economic prospects risk takers, who are the true wealth creators, do nothing.

Money in the ground not being worked produces nothing. So we have current malaise. Capitalism requires action to produce something favorable.

But let us see how the day plays out. For this week is crucial as to where the future will go. My crystal ball is somewhat clouded the past few days.
  • #3,684
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:02am Oct 19, 2011 8:02am
Quoting AaronWard
Really a joke. I have put a lot out there about China. Pages and pages of stuff.
The reality is that the biggest beneficiary of a low Yuan is US and European multinationals.
Seriously? Well there are loads of economic theories and this science is a very complex, young and unfinished one. It always depends on the point of view. Could you just sumarize for me? Because I can.

Exporter makes a deal in foreign currency and he gets paid in foreign currency. Then he weakens his own. Receives same amount of foreign currency for his goods. Exchanges and gets more of his. Untill inflation strikes 10%, exporting nation heavily profits from undervaluing currency.

This seemed to me as a fact. Why are companies all around EU hedging against weakening EUR? Because they will otherwise get less of their own currency.

EDIT: Really Aaron. Why did the Swatch CEO convinced SNB to intervene? Why did US pass the bill against undervalued currencies? All because inflation helps export. Strong currency destroys it.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,685
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:02am Oct 19, 2011 8:02am
Khazul
As they say here in America, toucha my stuff I breaka you face.

As I recall the last time the US followed an isolationist policy was during the Great Deppression, lead to all sorts of world leaders unopposed.
Stalin, Mao, Hitler, Mussolini. Japanese Empire ( some blood spilled in Asia on that one)

The world really does well when the US withdraws. If that is the world you want?
  • #3,686
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:03am Oct 19, 2011 8:03am
Hey all.
Just dropping by to see where the US CPI came in.

So yesterday we got a 0.8% PPI and today we get a 0.3% CPI

Either:
1. These statistics are wrong
2. There is a delay in the correlation between PPI and CPI because what producers put on shelves in September may not be sold till this month and we shall see a rise in CPI for October.
3. The distributors and retailers are eating the extra costs and therefore profit margins (if they make any) will be much lower.

#1 is not good at all as it undermines the credibility of these statistics.
#2 will be acceptable and neither indicates positive or negative news (yet).
#3 is negative for the US markets as it will hurt corporate earnings.

These are my thoughts.

So, how's everybody doing?

P.S. I am not Greek, I am not in Greece. I am in Sunny Malta. You know? The second last EU country to ratify the EFSF expansion?.

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,687
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:09am Oct 19, 2011 8:09am
I see news took my break even stop out. Made a few pips tho.
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #3,688
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:09am Oct 19, 2011 8:09am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
Hey all.

P.S. I am not Greek, I am not in Greece. I am in Sunny Malta. You know? The second last EU country to ratify the EFSF expansion?.

.
A place fit for a Forex trader.
"Malta" in finnish means "be patient".
  • #3,689
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:13am Oct 19, 2011 8:13am
Quoting foto
In response.
...

Phew, slow typer, but clever one. Now I will be slow reader as your post is quite hard to read. Need to connect all links.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,690
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:13am Oct 19, 2011 8:13am
Quoting AFXFin
A place fit for Forex trader.
"Malta" in finnish means "be patient".
How appropriate I am in fact a very patient trader (most times... I sometimes enter prematurely and lose out on an extra 10 pips I would have made had I waited)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,691
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:19am Oct 19, 2011 8:19am
Well, back to whipping those olive pickers. I see from my window that they've taken a break for the fifth time today.

Will be back later

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,692
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:22am Oct 19, 2011 8:22am
I appologize Tom, for my posts to be obtuse. Tend to view things from a top down approach. Once the macro view gets a picture, it leads to subtopics then the explainatory details do not come forward as it would take an hour to type a response.
  • #3,693
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:33am Oct 19, 2011 8:33am
Was beginning to wonder, but we are getting some blue candles not all red on the hourly USD index
  • #3,694
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:38am Oct 19, 2011 8:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
(...)
P.S. I am not Greek, I am not in Greece. I am in Sunny Malta. You know? The second last EU country to ratify the EFSF expansion?.(...)
You lucky bastard . Loving wife, good trades, and sunny Malta... I am jealous .

But, maybe some time in the future....

EDIT: And, talking about trades... cannot believe how lucky I am today... at least until now. Will it hold few more hours? Will see...
  • #3,695
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:43am Oct 19, 2011 8:43am
Quoting foto
I appologize Tom, ....
No problem. I enjoy a lot reading it. I am macroeconomist and more of a philosoper, than trader.

Quoting foto
In response.
Yes, it is a complex science indeed an all factors matter.
And I agree there is a disparity between peripheral countries and core countries. But the disparity doesnt lie in unability of periphereal countries to create competitive product, but in socialistic EU system. I know it, coz I live in such a country. We had always created internationally competitive products. Even when we were dominated by Russia. Yet we stopped creating them when we entered EU. For example. We were exporting sugar to whole world. Now we are importing sugar because EU set limits of how much we can produce LOWER than our national needs. Argumentation was our small nation could threaten EU sugar market if we produce too much. Bullshit I say. We were exporting grain and corn as well. Now we import it and food prices are rising, as all our fields are full of oilseed rape so we can enhance biofuel. Rest of fields is full of solar plants. We were exporting coal and making cheap energy. Now we cant because coal is on blacklist producing pollution. That made energy more expensive and destroyed our glassworks, which were also competitive.

It is not our unability to produce competitive goods. It is a socialistic system of EU which creates these disproportions.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,696
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:44am Oct 19, 2011 8:44am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Seriously? Well there are loads of economic theories and this science is a very complex, young and unfinished one. It always depends on the point of view. Could you just sumarize for me? Because I can.

Exporter makes a deal in foreign currency and he gets paid in foreign currency. Then he weakens his own. Receives same amount of foreign currency for his goods. Exchanges and gets more of his. Untill inflation strikes 10%, exporting nation heavily profits from undervaluing currency.

This seemed to me as a fact. Why are companies all around EU hedging...
Tom D Trader.

The reality is that when Apple or Nike makes computers or shoes in China and sells them around the world, it is an American company that pockets most of the profit.

The second reality is that the US already has the ability to deal with the Chinese currency manipulation. That they don't is criminal and treasonous. They don't need a new law because their current law is just fine. But it is a decision driven by the powerful US lobby groups that want to combine the money making formula of cheap Chinese labor with a popular American brand.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,697
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:50am Oct 19, 2011 8:50am
Consultant says EFSF closer to EUR 1 trln than EUR 2 trln

Guess somebody besides PT can do the math too.

I'm glad I shorted this thing again @ 1.3846 when it stalled after being stopped with my SL too tight the first time.

IDK why it is caps on every word I type since I copied the headline.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #3,698
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:54am Oct 19, 2011 8:54am
Aint she purdy
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,699
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:55am Oct 19, 2011 8:55am
OK, took some peoples advice to others and stepped back for an evening to regroup last night.

Back fresh this morning in short at 1.384 after another successful hold on the 1.385 level repulsed the push. Greece having violent riots this morning, chart is bearish engulfing on 30m, and 1H. 1, 5, 15, and 30m bollinger all now sloping south with 1H on the middle trendline. Took 40% of my position off at R1 1.3815, letting the rest ride with SL at 1.38 flat.

The dow near the top of its recent range, and the high inflation picture painted yesterday that seemed to weaken the dollar was countered by lower inflation data today and strong housing starts both of which are positive for the US economy, but the market is being driven by technicals since no one can say with certainty in either the US or EZ what is coming next with consensus.

I am seeing a retrace to the 76.4 fib at 1.3777, then we will see.

Lets see if I can hit the dow call 3 days in a row. I say it will be off at least 100 because if Apple can't make money, who the hell can? Oil is overbought and silver is leading the way south on commodities this morning.
  • #3,700
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:56am Oct 19, 2011 8:56am
Tom, at the risk of overloading you with posts.

I am not anti Euro or anything else, well maybe not everthing else, but from perspective, Europe has always been a self sufficent Continent.
Its current difficulties paying its bills by earning revenue is the primary reason for the bear macro view.

Like other modern welfare states too much debt and too many rules is the problem, and until that situation reverses am unable to visualize how the mess gets resolved. So a change while not imminent would work wonders.

Looks as if the USD has started to wake up.
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