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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #28,221
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:51am Oct 19, 2011 6:51am
Quoting pinkiaiii
lol nice reaction it managed to close above 77 for one day in two months time,still i would expect some major drop first close to 70 to kill all the longs before any real turnaround.but time will tell.
I do not think the current level is not without reason, lasting from 2 months
  • #28,222
  • Oct 19, 2011 7:00am Oct 19, 2011 7:00am
Quoting patryn
I do not think the current level is not without reason, lasting from 2 months
There's indeed a very good reason why Usd/Jpy fails to strenghten. Markets are calling Boj's bluff. Sofar, rightfully so and not without success.

And I keep on being sceptic about it strenghtening as long as Japanese fail to take decisive action. Rethoric is what's keeping Jpy from weakening.

Imo !
  • #28,223
  • Oct 19, 2011 7:11am Oct 19, 2011 7:11am
- UJ Daily Form Double Bottom with Undecided Bar yesterday
- Strong Demand @ 76.60 above
- Break 76.60 might Point next lower level but Dont see any good short opportunity based on current technical outlook
- Attached UJ Daily Technical Chart & Daily trend
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily.png Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily Trend.png Size: 36 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,224
  • Oct 19, 2011 7:13am Oct 19, 2011 7:13am
Interesting to see that Usd/Jpy only moves based on rumors coming in or fading out. Other Jpy related pairs move on economic data as well.

Hmmmm, who said that Usd/Jpy isn't all about Boj stepping in or not ?

Usd/Jpy is dead for the time being !
  • #28,225
  • Oct 19, 2011 7:27am Oct 19, 2011 7:27am
USD / JPY pair is the most important for Japan
It's like only 15% of exports to USA, but most transactions are settled in dollars rather than in the other currencies.
sooner rather than later we will see the level of 85
  • #28,226
  • Oct 19, 2011 8:22am Oct 19, 2011 8:22am
Quoting patryn
USD / JPY pair is the most important for Japan
It's like only 15% of exports to USA, but most transactions are settled in dollars rather than in the other currencies.
sooner rather than later we will see the level of 85
Have no doubt that we 'll see the 85 level. However, don't agree on the "sooner than later" part.

Todays economic data wasn't bad at all, yet we see continued dollar selling across the board. This pair will not move up unless Boj steps in.
  • #28,227
  • Oct 19, 2011 11:04am Oct 19, 2011 11:04am
A clear break and hold of 77.50 or even 78.00 will be the trigger for getting towards 80.00+ -- rest is nothing but noise and dead money.

Boj action is key, not socalled US strenght.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.jpg Size: 113 KB
  • #28,228
  • Oct 19, 2011 1:42pm Oct 19, 2011 1:42pm
Markets tumbling and Usd strenghtening towards all currencies ... except ? Yep, the Jpy !

Oh yes, the Boj sure has markets scared by announcing that new steps will be unveiled this week ;-) LOL

Forget the noise guys and trade the chart and NOT rumors which are spread often by posters like Western. The pair is still in the channel which started months ago, no need to get in just yet, no sign of reversal. All we have seen are sell offs of each and every attempt to bounce.

And that's a verifiable fact !!!
  • #28,229
  • Oct 19, 2011 1:52pm Oct 19, 2011 1:52pm
im not saying it is going to happen tomorrow. Everyone can see the UJ is in a range. No doubt about it. But I am just saying, the BOJ will react. They clearly have been intervening by providing a floor. If you are a long term trader, this information is useful.
  • #28,230
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:01pm Oct 19, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting SIgurs
Markets tumbling and Usd strenghtening towards all currencies ... except ? Yep, the Jpy !

Oh yes, the Boj sure has markets scared by announcing that new steps will be unveiled this week ;-) LOL

Forget the noise guys and trade the chart and NOT rumors which are spread often by posters like Western. The pair is still in the channel which started months ago, no need to get in just yet, no sign of reversal. All we have seen are sell offs of each and every attempt to bounce.

And that's a verifiable fact !!!
Hi SIgurs,
I agree that the Japs are full of crap and believe they are manipulating the market by putting out false claims of intervention. But now I wouldn't know how to trade this pair. Are you trading the range?
  • #28,231
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:32pm Oct 19, 2011 2:32pm
Quoting western
im not saying it is going to happen tomorrow. Everyone can see the UJ is in a range. No doubt about it. But I am just saying, the BOJ will react. They clearly have been intervening by providing a floor. If you are a long term trader, this information is useful.
There was also talk of tough measures when the Jpy broke 100/95/90/ and 85, still it went much lower ! Wouldn't enter based on the 'fact' that Boj will react. Ofcourse they will, however, action might kick in tonight at 76.85, tomorrow at 77.00, next month at 72.15, next year at 69.25 or...

Therefore, imo, this kind of info isn't usefull. Not for scalpers, not for swingers nor for long term traders.

Again, just my 2 cents !
  • #28,232
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:36pm Oct 19, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting piphead
Hi SIgurs,
I agree that the Japs are full of crap and believe they are manipulating the market by putting out false claims of intervention. But now I wouldn't know how to trade this pair. Are you trading the range?
Have no position at the moment. Don't see any sign of reversal yet.
  • #28,233
  • Oct 19, 2011 5:47pm Oct 19, 2011 5:47pm
The first similar initiative clearly did not work. Tell me, why would
this one be any different ? Imo, just another pathetic attempt to
weaken the Jpy.


Japan to boost dollar loans to curb yen - Nikkei
From reuters.com
The Japan government decided to expand a lending program that will use government-held dollars to increase foreign acquisitions and investments in natural resources to about 10 trillion yen (about $130 billion), aiming to rein in the Japanese currency, the Nikkei business daily reported. The expansion is part of a package of policy responses to the strong yen that the cabinet is set to approve on Friday, the newspaper said. Earlier plans for the lending program run by the state-backed Japan Bank for International Cooperation had called for $100 billion, or roughly 7.7 trillion yen, in loans, the paper ...
  • #28,234
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:06pm Oct 19, 2011 6:06pm
Quoting western
im not saying it is going to happen tomorrow. Everyone can see the UJ is in a range. No doubt about it. But I am just saying, the BOJ will react. They clearly have been intervening by providing a floor. If you are a long term trader, this information is useful.
Oh yes, they reacted ;-) by doing more of the same of something
which clearly did not work last time they tried. Guess markets will back off now. LOL

Again, its all about credibility, which imo they lack. Looks like markets are of
the same opinion. Better forget your dreams and hopes for a 1000+ move ;-)
  • #28,235
  • Oct 20, 2011 2:27am Oct 20, 2011 2:27am
Headlines from the yen plan:

 

  1. Will launch task force
  2. Credit facility expanded to 10 trillion yen
  3. Will consider unconventional measures to help international stability
  4. one-sided yen rise continuing
  5. will not rule out anything on FX, will take firm steps if needed
  6. Wants BOJ to support econ though appropriate, decisive action

What's new ? Let price be your guide, it clearly indicates that nothing's new. Just the same old blablabla ......

  • #28,236
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:17am Oct 20, 2011 7:17am
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,237
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:25am Oct 20, 2011 7:25am
Quoting FXMindset
Please keep on yawning --- apparently it moves up price ;-)
76.92 now.
  • #28,238
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:40am Oct 20, 2011 7:40am
Quoting SIgurs
Please keep on yawning --- apparently it moves up price ;-)
76.92 now.
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,239
  • Oct 20, 2011 8:23am Oct 20, 2011 8:23am
Yet again, it pays off to short any bounce in the Usd/Jpy. Needs to stay above the upper line in order to have an opportunity to make new highs (however small chances are). lol

Could it be that markets are taking the Boj for another walk in the park, calling their bluff ? Price action clearly shows who's calling the shots. It ain't the Boj guys ;-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #28,240
  • Oct 20, 2011 8:49am Oct 20, 2011 8:49am
imo we need to be and stay above 77.00 mark (above dpp,wpp and mpp) for more north action
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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