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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #3,641
  • Oct 19, 2011 5:27am Oct 19, 2011 5:27am
the market is overbought, I expect the correction
  • #3,642
  • Oct 19, 2011 5:32am Oct 19, 2011 5:32am
Waiting for CPI guys? Again, I call it "Kinder surprise". CPI will overshoot expectations and hit at least 0,6%. Dunno who is projecting those expectations, but they are very silly.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,643
  • Oct 19, 2011 5:33am Oct 19, 2011 5:33am
I am concerned about lack of rally after beating .85 too. Expected to take losses on my ill-placed short... and now I start to wonder - perhaps we just build a nice shoulder ? I always repeat - EUR is stubborn currency. It doesn't know how to behave
  • #3,644
  • Oct 19, 2011 5:34am Oct 19, 2011 5:34am
It's a nice sunny day here at my winter retreat in the Mediterranean but it's not all play for me today.

I have close to 100 olive trees outside that need to be picked and pruned. The local help is taking ages to do it so I had better go give them a hand and crack the whip

Since I have spent the better part of the last 5 weeks glued to this computer, I need to take a breather and get some physical work done outside in the sun and breeze.

This thread is coming along very nicely and I am proud to say that it is very well used by decent respectable traders who require very little policing.

Therefore I shall leave you on your own for a day. In my absence I ask the senior members of this thread to please watch out for any trolls and PM me should any show up and try to disturb the peace. Please don't pay any attention to them as that is what they seek and it will encourage them to continue.

I will pop in to check things out from time to time.

See you all later.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,645
  • Oct 19, 2011 5:39am Oct 19, 2011 5:39am
We are at critical support levels for the USD index. The 76.50 level must be sustained or the diagnosis is that the Euro bulls are in control.

The 50% retrace level from the upmove low of 73.50 to the high at 79.78
is 76.63
This level is also the prior resistance high for the four month range bound channel from may thru start of september.

We can have all the fundamental reasons on Earth for why the USD should strengthen but the bottom line is that someone someplace has to decide to buy more USD then buy Euro

We have had the breakout off the daily channel. What appeared to be a bullish leg up and now we have the pullback.



If the market has USD longs stronger then the shorts then stepping up to the plate and buying is the show of the hand being played.

For the 50% retrace to fail says USD demand is weaker then supply. If those who need to buy USD are still waiting for a better price then current levels then they value Euro's more then the USD

Beautiful work, all who post.
  • #3,646
  • Oct 19, 2011 5:39am Oct 19, 2011 5:39am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper

See you all later.

Cheers
PT
The Cat has left the building. Hey mice! Any bad ideas for the Forex Economy? Anyone wanna go tease the bull and call for the bear?
  • #3,647
  • Oct 19, 2011 5:41am Oct 19, 2011 5:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
So far your projections have worked out very well.
Keep it up mate
I'm just lucky mate,been long @ 1.3660 with stop @ 1.3720..next let it be..I mean let it ride till top or stop out,sometimes its about our emotion game
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #3,648
  • Oct 19, 2011 5:43am Oct 19, 2011 5:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
It's a nice sunny day here at my winter retreat in the Mediterranean but it's not all play for me today.

I have close to 100 olive trees outside that need to be picked and pruned. The local help is taking ages to do it so I had better go give them a hand and crack the whip


PT
Lucky bastard!

Horizontal rain and now sleet with snow on the hills here at the top of scotland. And since Im a farmer I have to go out in it

Yes you have an excellent thread here I have been following since yesterday. I cant stand the bitching that goes on else where.

Ps. buma is taking a break for a few days, hopefully to sleep for a while! the kid will be a force to be reckoned with once he settles down.

h2
  • #3,649
  • Oct 19, 2011 5:47am Oct 19, 2011 5:47am
Quoting highlander2
Lucky bastard!

Horizontal rain and now sleet with snow on the hills here at the top of scotland. And since Im a farmer I have to go out in it

Yes you have an excellent thread here I have been following since yesterday. I cant stand the bitching that goes on else where.

Ps. buma is taking a break for a few days, hopefully to sleep for a while! the kid will be a force to be reckoned with once he settles down.

h2
Lets bring the best EU analysis for this thread together mate
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #3,650
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:20am Oct 19, 2011 6:20am
Good morning traders,
I took a short position at 3848. Reason being: The previous 1 hour candle tells me the bulls are getting a little tired, the price closed under the 78.6 fib of the last swing hi to low. Now this could be a risky trade as the trend on the 1 hour chart is up and I am counter trading on this particular trade and the price may only get as low as the 1 hr trendline and bounce from there. My stop will be just above the hi so risking about 20 pips.I will be scaling out when appropriate.
ADD: 1 hour bearish divergence
Attached Image
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #3,651
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:25am Oct 19, 2011 6:25am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting highlander2
Lucky bastard!

Horizontal rain and now sleet with snow on the hills here at the top of scotland. And since Im a farmer I have to go out in it

Yes you have an excellent thread here I have been following since yesterday. I cant stand the bitching that goes on else where.

Ps. buma is taking a break for a few days, hopefully to sleep for a while! the kid will be a force to be reckoned with once he settles down.

h2
Coldish, but sunny here in north. No olive trees, but pine trees and cones need no picking. No need to go out but for a smoke.

My pure opinion according to clouds in a sky and current economical situation in europe, is that Trend will turn today to bearish, but it is not the final turn before the crises news.

In a long term: once EU is able to make a decision about decision of how crises will be solved, EURUSD will drop fast all the way to 1.31. That's when you should hold your hats, cause it will be fast.

*Though this is opinion is based on fundamentals and technicals it is still just my opinion and shown by my crystalball which might be malfunctioning.*
  • #3,652
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:27am Oct 19, 2011 6:27am
Quoting AFXFin
Coldish, but sunny here in north. No olive trees, but pine trees and cones need no picking. No need to go out but for a smoke.

My pure opinion according to clouds in a sky and current economical situation in europe is that Trend will turn today to bearish but it is not the final turn before crises news.

In a long term: once EU is able to make a decision about decision of how crises will be solved EURUSD will drop fast all the way to 1.31. That's when you should hold your hats, cause it will be fast.

*Though this is opinion is based on fundamentals...
LOL..Mine occasionally malfunctions also. Wonder if there is a fix for that?
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #3,653
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:27am Oct 19, 2011 6:27am
Quoting Blobik
I am concerned about lack of rally after beating .85 too. Expected to take losses on my ill-placed short... and now I start to wonder - perhaps we just build a nice shoulder ? I always repeat - EUR is stubborn currency. It doesn't know how to behave
Well its way out of my original trade box for shorts, so at the moment Im not sure if its still a left shoulder, or if its going to continue up well into 1.40s (perhaps 1.45 ish).

H8 looks like Oct 17th-18th was just an a-b-c correction, and since then been more or less heading north.

My current plan is to leave the shorts in place - let them hit their stops or perhaps catch a 50% retrace (to 379) if there is one coming and exit them there. At the moment I have +10pips on one of them, -3 and -8 on the others, so nothing to really worry about yet beyond the price being off plan.

Im not adding any more short however at this price range. Holding off on non-scalping longs until I see it convincingly in 1.39+.

Seems to me were in no-mans land with high risk of being shot at from both sides...
  • #3,654
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:27am Oct 19, 2011 6:27am
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle2206047/

thought I would share this gem with you all.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,655
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:29am Oct 19, 2011 6:29am
Hello Mr. PT... Akhil here.... I created a new account.

Thank you Aaron, for your idea !!!!
  • #3,656
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:32am Oct 19, 2011 6:32am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting AaronWard
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle2206047/

thought I would share this gem with you all.
PT mentioned mediterranean and olive trees. Is he in greece? Hopefully he don't get beaten by his staff.
  • #3,657
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:33am Oct 19, 2011 6:33am
Micro managing the short: Appears to be a head and shoulders forming on this 5 minute chart. As long as price remains under the possible right shoulder, I will remain in the trade. Above that and I may "consider" exiting the trade around the break even point and re-thinking a position.
Attached Image
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #3,658
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:37am Oct 19, 2011 6:37am
You will also see a head and shoulders (possible) on the 4h and a double top on the daily if you care to look.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,659
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:37am Oct 19, 2011 6:37am
Just read that one Aaron
That is what is so puzzling about the Euro.

The world is placing the full burden of European union upon the shoulders of the French and German economies.

With all the million dollar plus analysts out there presumably with resources to get the best information available to make assessments,
the notion that are the French and German economies strong enough to pull it off, just never seems to be factored in.

Now even factoring in the jackasses that the US has as administration, is the currency that has many sovereigns on the verge of default and the lack of financial strength by even the strongest members to save the others really worth current price levels?
  • #3,660
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:39am Oct 19, 2011 6:39am
Quoting AaronWard
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle2206047/

thought I would share this gem with you all.
Blah blah blah. They were taking extra payments for washing their hands, walking up the stairs, coming to work on time and were retired at 55.

If it wasnt for recently enhanced EFSF I would say: "kick em out ou EU". Now I had to change my mind as Greece has to stay in EU since states pledge for EFSF. Greece has to be saved and therefore, its lazy inhabitants have to suffer.

Sry if you are from Greece PT but you have to think the same.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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