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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #28,201
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:12pm Oct 17, 2011 6:12pm
77.45/50 is the tough nut to crack, 3 attempts and each found heavy resistance. 76.60/65 looks to be the marble flooring proving just as difficult to push through. Could this be the new range? Lower wicks are longer in comparison and edging higher over the days but this needs to pop the ceiling. Still holding longs and enjoying the tiny negative swap that is dragging out . Anyone got a bandaid for my papercut?
  • #28,202
  • Oct 18, 2011 3:17am Oct 18, 2011 3:17am
time to long again?
  • #28,203
  • Oct 18, 2011 9:53am Oct 18, 2011 9:53am
Quoting tankokjian
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=320280

careful , jap government issue final warning to those who wants to go against them ..
As early as this week ? LOL

Hmmm, I've heard this kind of rethoric before. Can't remember where though ;-)
  • #28,204
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:21am Oct 18, 2011 10:21am
Hello, this is mine first post in the JPY ;-)

I do have one question to felow members, there is mostly sure that BOJ will take some action to change the USD/JPY rate just because their market need (Still need, maybe it will be changed soon) a US market as a consumer only thing is that Japan has a downtrend for a machinery orders and etc... it is clear that they are loosing the US consumer in this moment ant it is takinkg already a second or third month so I thing that they must have a full stocks with a goods, and only one way to sell in this moment is to lower price = low profit or no profit at all.

And BOJ will for sure make something against that, just I don't understud WHY it is for them so IMPOSSIBLE break the YEN so that the market will be more liquid again. = that's what they need.

I think that if only RUMOR's can take USD/JPY higher what will happend if the BOJ will really make some hard actions, what will happend?

TXH.

M.
  • #28,205
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:30am Oct 18, 2011 10:30am
I dont post much, but I have heard that the BOJ will intervene, it will resemble the CHF intervention, possible more then an 1100 pip move. I heard they are waiting for a clear wall to break to trigger profit taking from years and years ago. They need to those hands to fold before anything can materialize. Rumor has it a swift intervention to 86 and 87 is in the works, coordinated with several institutions. This is also considered seasonally weak for the yen as well, so that makes sense.

The weekly chart is clearly in a downtrend. THe BOJ needs to send a msg that the trend is broken, otherwise institutions will continue to add to there long positions.
  • #28,206
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:42am Oct 18, 2011 10:42am
Last week's Usd/Jpy surge .... yet again, was sold off. Japanese bluff ain't working.

When will they realize that the proof of the pudding is in the eating ?
  • #28,207
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:52am Oct 18, 2011 11:52am
Quoting SIgurs
Last week's Usd/Jpy surge .... yet again, was sold off. Japanese bluff ain't working.

When will they realize that the proof of the pudding is in the eating ?
Japanese Government and BOJ to form a special team to discuss intiative to combat the strong yen.

Yawn .... what else is new ?
  • #28,208
  • Oct 18, 2011 12:07pm Oct 18, 2011 12:07pm
Quoting SIgurs
Japanese Government and BOJ to form a special team to discuss intiative to combat the strong yen.

Yawn .... what else is new ?
so you are short
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,209
  • Oct 18, 2011 1:19pm Oct 18, 2011 1:19pm
Quoting western
I dont post much, but I have heard that the BOJ will intervene, it will resemble the CHF intervention, possible more then an 1100 pip move. I heard they are waiting for a clear wall to break to trigger profit taking from years and years ago. They need to those hands to fold before anything can materialize. Rumor has it a swift intervention to 86 and 87 is in the works, coordinated with several institutions. This is also considered seasonally weak for the yen as well, so that makes sense.

The weekly chart is clearly in a downtrend. THe BOJ needs...
Where exactly did you get this information and do you realize that this is meaningless when it comes to price action? Not too long ago Goldman I think it was said gold would go to 2500.. not long afterword the market corrected .
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #28,210
  • Oct 18, 2011 2:24pm Oct 18, 2011 2:24pm
Quoting england33
Where exactly did you get this information and do you realize that this is meaningless when it comes to price action? Not too long ago Goldman I think it was said gold would go to 2500.. not long afterword the market corrected .

A trader working closely with a source out of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial group. They are colaborating an effective model that closely resembles the SNB actions. I think SMFG may be working the model. Trader saying it will be swift, no warning.
  • #28,211
  • Oct 18, 2011 2:27pm Oct 18, 2011 2:27pm
This pair is the biggest piece of sh.t ever traded
WTF is that 76.85 all about?
  • #28,212
  • Oct 18, 2011 3:18pm Oct 18, 2011 3:18pm
Quoting western
A trader working closely with a source out of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial group. They are colaborating an effective model that closely resembles the SNB actions. I think SMFG may be working the model. Trader saying it will be swift, no warning.
Forgive me for being sceptical, but for me these kind of stories have no value at all as it are just rumors and cheap talk. Japanese have threathened to intervene and take drastic action for years. And guess what ?

Markets no longer take these guys serious, hence the relentless sell offs of every single spike in price. These sell offs have been going on for years and will continue to as long as Boj keeps on acting the way they have done in the past. They have warned to take action when price went below 100/95/90/85/80 etc etc .... it all resulted in new lows.

So, in short, I think that you are taking your wishes for real ;-)

Just my 2 cents !!!!
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  • #28,213
  • Oct 18, 2011 7:42pm Oct 18, 2011 7:42pm
Quoting SIgurs
Last week's Usd/Jpy surge .... yet again, was sold off. Japanese bluff ain't working.

When will they realize that the proof of the pudding is in the eating ?
The bluff may not be working but then again it did to a degree. The Yen spiked higher. The CHF was the same although there backing has been more firm. There was rumours of a cap to 1.2500 EUR/CHF and look where it is now, long positions are pushing it higher and that is without the CHF adding further pressure.

It would be wise not to push too hard against a central bank, they can execute swiftly and there resources are great in number. If the JPY wants to cap at 80-85 it will do it when its ready, it is only a matter of time. In the mean time, just enjoy the slightly larger range

RT
  • #28,214
  • Oct 18, 2011 7:49pm Oct 18, 2011 7:49pm
Quoting SIgurs
Forgive me for being sceptical, but for me these kind of stories have no value at all as it are just rumors and cheap talk. Japanese have threathened to intervene and take drastic action for years. And guess what ?

Markets no longer take these guys serious, hence the relentless sell offs of every single spike in price. These sell offs have been going on for years and will continue to as long as Boj keeps on acting the way they have done in the past. They have warned to take action when price went below 100/95/90/85/80 etc etc .... it all resulted...
Swiss were no different. They went from intervention to new lows then back to intervention only to find new lows. They eventually had the enough is enough and have forced the cap. What are your thoughts now of the swiss and there past monetary movements? Does anyone dare to short the CHF with any considerable time horizon, the answer is very few.

As I stated, it is one thing to be skeptical of a banks intentions to weaken its currency but when it happens, just dont be short without a SL as it may not turn around.


RT
  • #28,215
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:55pm Oct 18, 2011 10:55pm
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,216
  • Oct 19, 2011 12:49am Oct 19, 2011 12:49am
Quoting Razor_trader
Swiss were no different. They went from intervention to new lows then back to intervention only to find new lows. They eventually had the enough is enough and have forced the cap. What are your thoughts now of the swiss and there past monetary movements?
I don't recall the Swiss complaining and threathening the way the Japanese do. These guys have been warning for years and still do without taking decisive action. Moreover, I think that Japanese psychology sort of prohibits them from taking stand alone Swiss like action -- always seeking consensus
and approval from others (countries, institutions worldwide) which they will never get.

So no, I don't expect them to peg the Jpy to the dollar of Euro. They will ofcourse intervene in future, but as has been the case for many years, it will be sold off as well.

Imo !
  • #28,217
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:20am Oct 19, 2011 2:20am
Quoting tankokjian
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=320280

careful , jap government issue final warning to those who wants to go against them ..
Oct 14th: Japanese gov't official: Japan to unveil new steps against strong JPY as early as next week.

And what does this final warning comprise ? "Japanese Government and BOJ to form a special team to discuss intiative to combat the strong yen."

So now they finally decided to form a task force where people can discuss Jpy problems. Hope they serve coffee and pastry. Talking about unveiling bold steps !

Credibility ? LOL
  • #28,218
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:42am Oct 19, 2011 2:42am
Quoting SIgurs
Oct 14th: Japanese gov't official: Japan to unveil new steps against strong JPY as early as next week.

And what does this final warning comprise ? "Japanese Government and BOJ to form a special team to discuss intiative to combat the strong yen."

So now they finally decided to form a task force where people can discuss Jpy problems. Hope they serve coffee and pastry. Talking about unveiling bold steps !

Credibility ? LOL

All jappys can do is 'blah blah crap crap'
  • #28,219
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:32am Oct 19, 2011 6:32am
Quoting jaydx
All jappys can do is 'blah blah crap crap'
Why so sceptic ? Have read that Boj is going to unveil steps against a strong Jpy this week. Forming a task force certainly is a strong message to markets that they'd better not mess with Boj ;-)

Think that markets got the message, hence the reaction in price. lol
  • #28,220
  • Oct 19, 2011 6:46am Oct 19, 2011 6:46am
Quoting SIgurs
Why so sceptic ? Have read that Boj is going to unveil steps against a strong Jpy this week. Forming a task force certainly is a strong message to markets that they'd better not mess with Boj ;-)

Think that markets got the message, hence the reaction in price. lol
lol nice reaction it managed to close above 77 for one day in two months time,still i would expect some major drop first close to 70 to kill all the longs before any real turnaround.but time will tell.
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