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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #3,261
  • Oct 18, 2011 3:31am Oct 18, 2011 3:31am
UK CPI 5.2% , 4.9% expected
  • #3,262
  • Oct 18, 2011 3:32am Oct 18, 2011 3:32am
Quoting drtorque
shorted @3760-70..

will reevaluate at 3740... either another upswing, or fastbreak to downside..


Post hidden because drtorque is on your ignore list.
SL 3790
TP 3660
removed TP
added to short @ 3720..
have to move SL ,too, at some point..
  • #3,263
  • Oct 18, 2011 3:34am Oct 18, 2011 3:34am
No big spike, no news trade, no rush, no trade for now Will come back for US open... It's 3:34 am here... I made my 9 pips

Worth it

see ya

Pbh
  • #3,264
  • Oct 18, 2011 3:52am Oct 18, 2011 3:52am
can anyone point out which exact happening pulled the EUR that down, in view of yesterdays and todays trend!? did i miss something in particular or is this just the resuming insecurity all over the world towards the EU debt crisis?

i mean EURUSD c'mon ever heared about support and resistance ....
  • #3,265
  • Oct 18, 2011 3:52am Oct 18, 2011 3:52am
German ZEW economic sentiment coming up next at 5am EST
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,266
  • Oct 18, 2011 3:55am Oct 18, 2011 3:55am
Quoting greed
can anyone point out which exact happening pulled the EUR that down, in view of yesterdays and todays trend!? did i miss something in particular or is this just the resuming insecurity all over the world towards the EU debt crisis?

i mean EURUSD c'mon ever heared about support and resistance ....
Actually I find the the EUR did in fact bounce off all the support and resistance I had on my charts.
However, hopium has been bashed since yesterday's announcment by the German Finance Minister that they will not have a resolution to the debt crisis in time for the G20 economic summit in November. Therefore the bulls took profit and some more bears moved in to take advantage.

ADD: This move is fully supported by my technical analysis also.
If you skip back a few pages you will see my rationale.

Also, welcome to EurAnalysis. Please read page 1 for the objectives, rules and a helpful resource section.
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,267
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:03am Oct 18, 2011 4:03am
German ZEW economic sentiment came in at -48.3 vs -44.8 expected and -43.3 last month

Down we go...

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,268
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:05am Oct 18, 2011 4:05am
Been a great early early morning. Sitting in this resistance zone with an underpin. Does the other shoe drop immediatly to 1.38 or do we bounce a little and get there over the next couple days? I am too tired to generate an answer on my own. Going to leave a small short open, SL at 1.389.

Tired
  • #3,269
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:07am Oct 18, 2011 4:07am
SILVER LEADS SELL SPREE, Broken support and heavy sells.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #3,270
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:15am Oct 18, 2011 4:15am
Nice one Buma I'm short on silver since 33 and am following it all theway down to 23.500! Short on euro from 1.3820 its the exct oppopsite to what we saw last week we saw minor resistance at key levels and then a clear break through only this time its the bears in control whose to say we wont see 1.3550 by the end of the day and maybe even 1.30 by the end of the week?
  • #3,271
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:19am Oct 18, 2011 4:19am
what is the verdict? Do you think it will bounce or are we going down to visit with davy jones?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,272
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:24am Oct 18, 2011 4:24am
Once the s&p breaks the 50sma on the 4h we'll see a 20point selloff and we all know how correlated the euro and s&p are so I feel Davy Jones will be getting a visit very soon! hopefully by Friday!
  • #3,273
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:26am Oct 18, 2011 4:26am
Quoting greed
can anyone point out which exact happening pulled the EUR that down, in view of yesterdays and todays trend!? did i miss something in particular or is this just the resuming insecurity all over the world towards the EU debt crisis?

i mean EURUSD c'mon ever heared about support and resistance ....
I believe German Fin minister was talking yesterday, and I found it real negative. But honestly, I try to avoid fundis in my trading decisions..

this is a war. everybody uses the tools that he's good at. whatever makes you stay alive at the end of the day..
  • #3,274
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:29am Oct 18, 2011 4:29am
Quoting RodMca
Nice one Buma I'm short on silver since 33 and am following it all theway down to 23.500! Short on euro from 1.3820 its the exct oppopsite to what we saw last week we saw minor resistance at key levels and then a clear break through only this time its the bears in control whose to say we wont see 1.3550 by the end of the day and maybe even 1.30 by the end of the week?
Possible, but I think more than likely we will see the 1.35 area by tomorrow or possibly today where we may get a good bounce with lots more short coverings and a possible test of 1.40 before the poop hits the fan late next week and we see it all come tumbling down again. It's in the charts too. Just take a look at my daily. This possible move would create an inverted H/S and then go up to finish its "unfinished" business in the 1.4 to 1.41 area.

Just a thought
Playing devil's advocate
Have to consider all possibilities.

I will be very careful with my ear to the news when we get to the mid to low 1.35 area. Don't forget that the BRIC nations stand to lose a lot from a weak Euro and also that the next truckload of dollars from the FED will soon arrive at the ECB to be used to buy Euros.

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,275
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:35am Oct 18, 2011 4:35am
We were talking about it with Freiburg couple of days ago. Subject was: Divergence between different news.

Now it can be seen again:
Reuters and Financial times talk about confusion of markets, caution of debt plans. Their vocabulary is modest and they generally suggest caution and change of mood.

Daily telegraph is the most agressive one saying "Berlin experts fear euro break up from bailout escalation". Murdoch is shorting Euro again.

Bloomberg seemed to be modest yesterday, when frau Merkels spokesman first came up with statement saying EU officials will not be able to deliver final solution on 23th. Now he became more agressive saying "Euro leaders crash crisis campaing bogs down"

What news shall I read damn it? I am reading it all day and every bastard is telling different thing and they are modifying articles while I read em.

T.

Edit: I forgot to Wallstreetjournal - Merkel tempers EU summit hopes. - Modest as well
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,276
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:42am Oct 18, 2011 4:42am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
What news shall I read damn it? I am reading it all day and every bastard is telling different thing and they are modifying articles while I read em.

T.
Here is the long and short of it.
British media are like gossip tabloids with sensational headlines.
Nobody in the UK likes the Euro which is primarily why they didn't join. Monetary union just does not work without fiscal union. Now the Brits are having a hay day saying "I told you so" and they would love nothing more than to see the Euro gone, just like some Arab nations would like nothing more than to see Israel wiped off the map.
Take everything you read in the British tabloids with a grain of salt and only focus on the facts, not the sensationalism in the headlines
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,277
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:44am Oct 18, 2011 4:44am
PT i was waiting for 1.40 myself but it seems there wasnt as much optimism as we expected and the bulls just didnt have the legs to get us there. As you said last week we eagerly await a downgrade of France which will reinforce the bearishness we're seeing at the moment. Investors are possibly realising that this will inevitabely happen and are searching for new lows below 1.30 to finally leave the range of 1.30-1.40 and enter ino 1.20-1.30 range? Of course if things do turn profit will be taken but i feel theres a lot more downside to this new trend unless something majorly positive happens!
  • #3,278
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:53am Oct 18, 2011 4:53am
Quoting RodMca
PT i was waiting for 1.40 myself but it seems there wasnt as much optimism as we expected and the bulls just didnt have the legs to get us there. As you said last week we eagerly await a downgrade of France which will reinforce the bearishness we're seeing at the moment. Investors are possibly realising that this will inevitabely happen and are searching for new lows below 1.30 to finally leave the range of 1.30-1.40 and enter ino 1.20-1.30 range? Of course if things do turn profit will be taken but i feel theres a lot more downside to this new...
The Fed's back door QE3 coupled with BRIC nations buying EZ bonds will probably be enough to trigger stops and send the swing (although temporarily) the other way. That's all I'm saying. Keep all possibilities in mind and be nimble. Don't let that bias commit you to the wrong side.
Make no mistake, I'm with you on this bearish sentiment but I do know that sometimes the market is irrational. I don't expect that to change
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,279
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:57am Oct 18, 2011 4:57am
With the markets in fear mode right now, I have to wonder how soon someone comes out and puts more hopium in the hookah.

Honestly, the economic headline numbers out this week ar a mixed bag but are they really that bad. Corporate earnings have been mixed too. More bad press, fear and jawboning than anything driving the market IMHO and I ain't trying to get caught in a trap.

Right now I'm doing a little scalping but I'm looking at a couple nice demand levels below for a possible swing trade north. Will get them posted when I get done goofing around with this last bounce.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #3,280
  • Oct 18, 2011 5:01am Oct 18, 2011 5:01am
Europe Deeply Divided Ahead of Make-or-Break Summit

The head of Deutsche Bank is raging against politicians, Berlin is raging against Paris and the north is raging against the south. The world is expecting decisive results at this weekend's EU summit on emergency measures to shore up the euro, but the Europeans remain split. Will German Chancellor Angela Merkel finally take the lead?

Chinese Government Has Limited Tools as GDP Growth Slows

Disappointing Chinese GDP (gross domestic product) figures for the third quarter come amid increasing worries about inflation and local government debt in the economic powerhouse.

Markets in Europe were set to open lower Tuesday morning after government data showed the Chinese economy grew at its slowest rate for two years in the third quarter of 2011.

There are increasing worries about inflation in the country.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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