EurAnalysis

So you all think that we are are going to see further depreciation of the euro ?

EDIT: cause I remain bullish, specially today

Pbh

you have a point there.. im reevaluating now...

update: yup had to switch to long...
update2: nah, its not holding...

When I look at my sell limits, I see 13.850. I think maybe it was a typo, not an expression of bearish determination.

Why?

I don't see any other solid reason for yesterday's sell-off than profit taking. I was expecting it. But today we got some news coming later, like GB CPI y/y (expected 0.4% higher), US PPI m/m (expected 0.2% higher). I think market will try to price in these numbers before they are released.

Pbh

PS: and after Friday's AMAZING core retail sales and retail sales (US) numbers, I am only looking for long setups. I think we are still in the false hope phase.

EU Daily Outlook

13721 above Still Provided a Good Support - and Previous Bar dont engulfing the first bar,So I'm long 13730 SL 13710 target trailing 100 Pips

Thanks Phb.

No money in shorting the euro since late NY really. The down move was triggered by Schaeuble saying they wouldn't have a plan ready until later. Set off the first usd buying spree in two weeks, but the meat of it was over by NYO. Now pretty much back to business as usual, heavy selling of the usd. Follow thru on heavy risk-off to Asian stocks but so what?

I expect more volatility in e/u this week. Cracks in the facade. Whispers & innuendo or loud pesistent shrieking who knows but the 20 ton gorilla in the room is the fear that they can't really pull it off. So many things to go wrong.

I don't think the bagholding banks are going to be able to accept a 60% haircut on bad greek debt w/o raising a stink or a panic. Leveraging 100's of billions of euros into some trillions to build "firewalls" around the deadbeat sovereigns and the dumbass banks who took on too much risk is a gargantuan mistake. The house of cards just keeps getting taller and more rickety all the time. If/when it crashes I really shudder to think...

If today 13721 still hold very well then I'm believe this might be a double low higher close bar pattern form which we might poin 1.4 level - I might be wrong Just sharing my though

morning everyone

Yah Morning my little brother,remember to brush your teeth first before have a breakfast

im reverse

i gotta eat, then brush my teeth..

speaking of breakfast...

i thought market will from another shoulder at 1.3825, and breakout 13720=>1.3670

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Upcoming important news:
4:30am GBP CPI y/y 4.9% 4.5% Bullish
8:30am USD PPI m/m 0.2% 0.0% Bullish
1:15pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks ---------
1:30 pm BOE Gov King Speaks Probably Bearish
* I remember he said he was pretty happy and willing to continue to do more QE.

Recent news:
German finance minister: EU summit will not present final solution for crisis Bearish
*I see…
Bundesbank: Outlook for Q4 2011 has deteriorated further Bearish
*uh huh…
Berlin: don't dream summit will solve euro crisis Bearish
*Interesting…
RBA meeting minutes: Quote, “Members believed that an improved inflation outlook, if confirmed by further data, would increase the scope for monetary policy to provide some support to demand, should that prove necessary. Members noted that financial conditions had already eased somewhat, with interest rates for some housing and business loans declining slightly because of increased competition and the fall in funding costs in financial markets.”. Bullish
*That is surprising… There was a lot of uncertainty about AU interest rates, and now they’re saying that they are willing to “provide some support to demand”. That looks like a big change to me.

Short-term sentiment:
Bullish
I don't see any other solid reason for yesterday's sell-off than profit taking... I was expecting it. But today we got some news coming later, like GB CPI y/y (expected 0.4% higher), US PPI m/m (expected 0.2% higher). I think market will try to price in these numbers before they are released.
Mid-term sentiment:
Caught me here
We will be getting the Greek austerity plan vote Oct 20th. I don’t know if we’re going to see any other breaking news, so I’ll stick to trade the short-term sentiment only.
Long-term sentiment:
Bearish
Nothing has changed. I’m anxiously waiting for the next crash. Fundamentals desire...


Pbh


PS: I'll post a 15 min chart later.

Here we go

we also have greek, spanish, portuguese etc bond auctions starting today cont thru the week

if ECB is backing off of bond purchases then the bond market will be doing their thing on the weak sov's debts and that will weigh on the eur

I have posted a new section on page 1 which has a calendar of all significant EZ events including bond auctions and important meetings.
Please read every day as part of your daily analysis.
I will try my best to keep it updated.

A leveraged EFSF is pure poison

- Will wait for the London Open before making any decision