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  • #681
  • Oct 17, 2011 4:38am Oct 17, 2011 4:38am
Quote
This was an AUD/USD long I took in August, the market just plunged through the weekly S/R levels and stopped me out. Is this a good example of what you are referring to above, and that I should have just stayed out of the market?

I don't know what was happening at the time of this trade, but I don't take trades where:

1. Scheduled important economic news is due out soon.
2. Unscheduled news has just hit the market which will clearly cause a large impulsive move.
3. An 'event' has just occurred - be it environmental, economic, political etc. that will cause an impulsive change in risk sentiment.
4. If it feels price is moving disorderly - there is nothing wrong with strong selling into a confluenced support area - it's actually (contrary to what some people think) what we look for than price slowly moving into our confluenced area, but if price is moving too far too fast this is disorderly and not something that we want to get in the way off.

With the AU trade it depends on how you managed the trade and on what TF - for example if I managed this trade on the 1HR TF( in terms of FLR's, entry and SL) then for me it would have hit the FLR.


Quote
Yes, you should be out of that intraday long to give way to my short.

I had 2 positions and exited @ 1.5766 and 1.5785 last week (entries @ 1.5676, 1.5690 with SL @ 1.5625 in both cases) so was a nice 3.3R combined trade.
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  • #682
  • Oct 17, 2011 8:31am Oct 17, 2011 8:31am
Quoting lovejoy80
CJ is something I've had marked for a while, looks good to me ... did you spot the good long setup - FTB with minor swing fib confluence, the FTB by itself without any other confluence (though there was confluence with other risk sentiment associated markets). UC had a similar setup at the same time too which is the one I opted for.
A half day holiday for me today so had to close all open trades unfortunately as I'd love to still be in this trade with the second part of my position.

First part of the trade off at the FLS, second part left open moving SL down to above the FLS once price closed below it on the 1HR TF - there is no reason to exit this trade so far after this - in fact you should be thinking about an opportunity to add another position which there was for the PA traders out there (notice how late the PA traders are to the game - PA trading is the first step on a trading journey to understand how and why price moves like it does - unfortunately many people see it as the only and final stage in the journey and dismiss everything else as aggressive trading) - the only reason you would have exited this trade before now is either because of an inefficient trade management plan or because you are letting your emotions take over your decision making.
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  • #683
  • Oct 18, 2011 1:09am Oct 18, 2011 1:09am
Quoting lovejoy80
I don't know what was happening at the time of this trade, but I don't take trades where...
Thank you for the additional inputs, LJ. Really appreciate your taking the time to share your trading knowledge with us.
  • #684
  • Oct 18, 2011 2:06am Oct 18, 2011 2:06am
Hi LJ,

Would these set-ups qualify as FTBs as per your FTB definition?
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  • #685
  • Oct 18, 2011 3:09am Oct 18, 2011 3:09am
Quoting supra
Hi LJ,

Would these set-ups qualify as FTBs as per your FTB definition?
The things I look for when considering a trade based solely on FTB is the following:

1. The S/R has to be a clear well defined S/R.
2. If it coming back to act as support then it should have acted as resistance in the past.
3. That price isn't coming back within a very short time frame or price range from having broken through the S/R in question i.e. not on the same or next couple bars.
4. Price isn't being driven by heavy risk aversion or impulsive moves based on a news event when coming back to test the S/R.
5. The S/R being at a round number is good but not essential confluence.

Here are a couple of past examples.
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  • #686
  • Oct 18, 2011 6:24am Oct 18, 2011 6:24am
Quoting lovejoy80
The things I look for when considering a trade based solely on FTB is the following:...
Thank you very much for the clear guidance, LJ.

Do you think the followings would be valid for point #6 & #7:
- Pullback to at least 50% fib
- Reasonable distance (say, at least 0.5R) between the initial SL and the FLR/FLS
  • #687
  • Oct 18, 2011 8:45am Oct 18, 2011 8:45am
Quoting supra
Thank you very much for the clear guidance, LJ.

Do you think the followings would be valid for point #6 & #7:
- Pullback to at least 50% fib
- Reasonable distance (say, at least 0.5R) between the initial SL and the FLR/FLS
An FTB by it's nature is a type of TT that requires no confluence i.e. it's a setup that can be traded without RN, Fibs, TL confluence etc. It's merely a return to a well defined S/R in accordance with the guidelines stated.

The other main type of TT is one based on confluence - this could include an FTB but it does not necessarily have to be an FTB.

With regards reasonable %R, I think this is down to personal taste. I don't make entry decisions based directly on %R but if space to the FLS/FLR is just non-existent then of course it would be a no trade - it's more using common sense IMO.
  • #688
  • Oct 18, 2011 9:31am Oct 18, 2011 9:31am
Quoting lovejoy80
An FTB by it's nature...
Thank you for the clarifications, LJ.
  • #689
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:54am Oct 19, 2011 2:54am
Quoting lovejoy80
The things I look for when considering a trade based solely on FTB is the following:

1. The S/R has to be a clear well defined S/R.
2. If it coming back to act as support then it should have acted as resistance in the past.
3. That price isn't coming back within a very short time frame or price range from having broken through the S/R in question i.e. not on the same or next couple bars.
4. Price isn't being driven by heavy risk aversion or impulsive moves based on a news event when coming back to test the S/R.
5. The S/R being at a round...
Here is a more recent example...
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  • #690
  • Oct 19, 2011 4:53am Oct 19, 2011 4:53am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes, the 1.28 area is a key area and price closing above an area like this certainly tips the balance towards price continuing to rise. Does it tip it in the balance enough to warrant taking a trade - that depends on your own trading methodology and what constitutes a tradable setup.

For me I'd much rather take the CJ FTB long any day over a breakout because price closed above an S/R. From my experience I would probably rate the probabilities (I like to think in terms of probabilities of going to an FLR/FLS when I think about potential setups...
Coming back to this pair that was discussed over the weekend - an update attached below.
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  • #691
  • Oct 20, 2011 12:31am Oct 20, 2011 12:31am
Was a very slow day yesterday but this trade is on it's way to it's target
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  • #692
  • Oct 20, 2011 5:24am Oct 20, 2011 5:24am
Morning scalps worked out better than I imagined after the EFSF guideline document was released.
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  • #693
  • Oct 20, 2011 7:38am Oct 20, 2011 7:38am
Quoting lovejoy80
Morning scalps worked out better than I imagined after the EFSF guideline document was released.
Great trades, LJ!

I can see the correlated confluences between the pairs incl. the EURx, though the S/R levels are more obvious in the EUR & JPY crosses rather than in the AUD. Appreciate if you would shed light on your entries on these trades. Were they PA-based?
  • #694
  • Oct 21, 2011 2:36am Oct 21, 2011 2:36am
Quoting supra
Great trades, LJ!

I can see the correlated confluences between the pairs incl. the EURx, though the S/R levels are more obvious in the EUR & JPY crosses rather than in the AUD. Appreciate if you would shed light on your entries on these trades. Were they PA-based?
They weren't purely technical trades, they were based on the S/R areas you noted also the fact that the market is becoming pretty predictable in terms of it's ranges and movements from one end to the other. So on that way they were more speculative and based on experience, chart watching and S/R's that strictly technical based trades.
  • #695
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:58am Oct 21, 2011 7:58am
One I'm watching...
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  • #696
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:32am Oct 24, 2011 12:32am
Quoting lovejoy80
One I'm watching...
I second that, plus two more... On the positive side, the USDX weekly support seems to be holding.
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  • #697
  • Oct 24, 2011 6:01am Oct 24, 2011 6:01am
Quoting supra
I second that, plus two more... On the positive side, the USDX weekly support seems to be holding.
Looks good to me. I'd also add equity futures as additional confluence and my USDX chart would be slightly different.

Was too early for me but the AU and GU TT's with USDX and YM/EP confluence was a no brainer trade.
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  • #698
  • Oct 25, 2011 9:34am Oct 25, 2011 9:34am
Quoting supra
I second that, plus two more... On the positive side, the USDX weekly support seems to be holding.
- GBP/USD short: Banked half position at FTA, remaining half stopped out.
- NZD/USD short: Missed entry by 6 pips.
- USD/CAD long: Missed entry by 5 pips.

The truth is that I am not too disappointed with the USD/CAD long as I cancelled the order on my live a/c just before the rate announcement, while I left the order open on the demo to see how it plays out. The real disappointment is with the NZD/USD short as it was such a narrow miss. Furthermore after the daily entry missed, I went down intraday to look for a set-up. One did interest me, but I didn't place an order.

Some questions please LJ, if I may:

1. How big are your usual pips allowance for entries and SLs on top of spreads?
2. I know you have advised to stay clear of trades during important news but is there any justification or clue perhaps to just leave the USD/CAD order in play in this case?
3. Would you consider the NZD/USD 30-min set-up valid and one which you would personally take?

Thank you.
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  • #699
  • Oct 25, 2011 10:49am Oct 25, 2011 10:49am
Quoting supra
- GBP/USD short: Banked half position at FTA, remaining half stopped out.
- NZD/USD short: Missed entry by 6 pips.
- USD/CAD long: Missed entry by 5 pips.

The truth is that I am not too disappointed with the USD/CAD long as I cancelled the order on my live a/c just before the rate announcement, while I left the order open on the demo to see how it plays out. The real disappointment is with the NZD/USD short as it was such a narrow miss. Furthermore after the daily entry missed, I went down intraday to look for a set-up. One did interest me,...
Unlucky with NU, that along with UC was the best technical setups of the week on the majors IMO. I was gutted I missed that as it was too early in the morning for me so just focussed mainly on UC from there on.

The 30min setup is a valid setup IMO, it is off a daily S/R with lower TF confluence. I don't often look below the 1HR TF myself.

I normally have a few pips buffer + spread above an S/R area if I'm looking to go long. With the likes of UC this is a major confluenced S/R area - but it is a wide area so what I want to make sure is that I don't try and look for too good an entry and thus I'm looking for the first area where price might react and this is where my entry goes above. As this a more major area I'm not looking for lower TF FLR's I'm looking at the daily TF and above in terms of targets.

With most TT's I would not want to be taking an entry or in a trade (unless I'm in very good profit) if major news is about to happen, but with the likes of UC this is a wide area and thus can survive any whipsaws - I actually count the UC setup as more of a positional trade rather than a standard TT. For a standard TT you want a very clear, well defined S/R i.e. not a wide range thus I treat the likes of UC as more of a positional trade where I expect a wide area to act as a brick wall to price rather that a specific price.
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  • #700
  • Oct 26, 2011 1:06am Oct 26, 2011 1:06am
Quoting lovejoy80
Unlucky with NU, that along with UC was the best technical setups of the week on the majors IMO.
I am looking at the brighter side of things: it's better to have tried and missed (still better than failed & lost) rather than not at all. At least I get the experience as a good lesson, and it's what the market does as even the pros miss once in a while, so now onto the next trade.

Quoting lovejoy80
The 30min setup is a valid setup IMO, it is off a daily S/R with lower TF confluence. I don't often look below the 1HR TF myself.
Would you consider the 30 min set-up as a standard TT and thus requires additional confluence? And would placing the initial SL above the last swing high of 0.8110 be too conservative?

Quoting lovejoy80
With the likes of UC this is a major confluenced S/R area - but it is a wide area so what I want to make sure is that I don't try and look for too good an entry and thus I'm looking for the first area where price might react ... but with the likes of UC this is a wide area and thus can survive any whipsaws...
Yup, all these make perfect sense. BTW, do you mind telling where you had your initial SL on this trade?
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