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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #28,181
  • Oct 15, 2011 10:43am Oct 15, 2011 10:43am
USD/JPY – Bias (W1): Ranging; Bias (Overall): Ranging

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=381
  • #28,182
  • Edited Oct 16, 2011 2:47am Oct 15, 2011 9:46pm | Edited Oct 16, 2011 2:47am
Maybe it's best to show this by charts. First chart is the long term descending triangle, started in 2007. It shows UJ is in its last subwave (e), which would normally (if left alone) end in the 73 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj1.jpg Size: 58 KB



Second chart shows the downward channel and trendlines of that subwave e. It is possible that the first TL touch in the area labelled as "4" was the completion of its subwave 4, and subwave 5 may have completed as a (heavily) truncated wave shortly thereafter. The red moving average is the 4hr 400 SMA and the violet line is the 4hr 800 SMA. As may be seen, a foothold above the 400SMA equates to a TL break to the upside. Price is currently sitting right on/above it. Conversely, a failure to hold above makes a drop just as likely. That's why UJ and other JPY pairs are, right now, at such an interesting point.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj2.jpg Size: 80 KB
  • #28,183
  • Edited 3:30pm Oct 16, 2011 12:56pm | Edited 3:30pm
How long might this tight ranging behavior continue for? If the BoJ continues to stay silent, will this climate continue indefinitely?

People mentioned how the market is fearful of a likely intervention, so no one has the balls to make any moves right now?

Personally, I hope this continues. Trading the tight range with high volume has been insanely profitable (and not to mention easy).

If this keeps up to the end of the year, I'll be able to complete a year's worth of growth in only a couple of months time.

----------

EDIT: Also, I just checked the charts for the pair from back in September of last year (when they last intervened).

After the announcement, the pair shot up only about 250 pips to roughly 85.70 (over the course of a few days) ... then flatlined for a while ... then began a DOWNWARD descent of over 500 pips to about 80.40. Then it pretty much stayed in that range.

So, unless I'm missing something here ... what was the point? The intervention obviously failed to weaken the currency as intended ...
  • #28,184
  • Oct 17, 2011 12:21am Oct 17, 2011 12:21am
UJ Daily Outlook - Pre London Open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily White Version.png Size: 29 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,185
  • Oct 17, 2011 2:10am Oct 17, 2011 2:10am
Rumor of BOJ Intervention is the only thing that is keeping USDJPY afloat at current levels. BOJ has lost its credibility. But somehow traders are not foolish to go against any CB...

Charts are telling us that UJ is about to sink. and if BOJ doesnt intervene, UJ will sink hard and fast.
  • #28,186
  • Oct 17, 2011 5:30am Oct 17, 2011 5:30am
If UJ breaks 77.50, its gonna be RISK ON towards 77.90 and possibly 78.00++
  • #28,187
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:00am Oct 17, 2011 6:00am
Try looking this trend resistance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily White Version.png Size: 32 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,188
  • Oct 17, 2011 9:05am Oct 17, 2011 9:05am
whoowwww so dig downtrend!!!! Which are the reasons anyone knows???
  • #28,189
  • Oct 17, 2011 9:15am Oct 17, 2011 9:15am
Quoting xtenas
whoowwww so dig downtrend!!!! Which are the reasons anyone knows???
Pay your attention to EurJpy
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,190
  • Oct 17, 2011 9:22am Oct 17, 2011 9:22am
Yes i 've seen it but i don;t use to trade EUR/JPY...Any news that cause this?? thanksss
  • #28,191
  • Oct 17, 2011 9:26am Oct 17, 2011 9:26am
EJ Monthly Found Resistance - Sell Pressure From EU Affect EJ and When EJ Drop UJ also would be drop
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ Monthly.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily White Version.png Size: 33 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,192
  • Oct 17, 2011 10:52am Oct 17, 2011 10:52am
European Debt Crisis isnt going away and the solution isnt promising as well...
Hmmmm.. RISK OFF play
  • #28,193
  • Oct 17, 2011 11:53am Oct 17, 2011 11:53am
Quoting BurgerKing
European Debt Crisis isnt going away and the solution isnt promising as well...
Hmmmm.. RISK OFF play
That's just what the so-called "experts" assume is the reason behind the move. Nowadays whenever a big move happens, they'll either credit or blame the euro debt crap for it.

In reality, no one actually knows for sure why the shifts happen. I'm guessing it's more technical than fundamental.
  • #28,194
  • Oct 17, 2011 1:02pm Oct 17, 2011 1:02pm
Quoting kibescorp
That's just what the so-called "experts" assume is the reason behind the move. Nowadays whenever a big move happens, they'll either credit or blame the euro debt crap for it.

In reality, no one actually knows for sure why the shifts happen. I'm guessing it's more technical than fundamental.
I think in this instance you may be right. EU hit a trendline resistance at 3900 (see chart below as posted on 10/13/2011) - along with it being a psychological round number. This shifted all the EU correlations which is why I think we saw a drop in UJ. At the moment this pair has seemed to have found it's longstanding support at 76.60. Let's see if it holds...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu d 10-13-2011.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #28,195
  • Oct 17, 2011 1:07pm Oct 17, 2011 1:07pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I think in this instance you may be right. EU hit a trendline resistance at 3900 (see chart below as posted on 10/13/2011) - along with it being a psychological round number. This shifted all the EU correlations which is why I think we saw a drop in UJ. At the moment this pair has seemed to have found it's longstanding support at 76.60. Let's see if it holds...
Its great to see my old UJ friends again..seem that many Old UJ traders missing
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,196
  • Oct 17, 2011 1:20pm Oct 17, 2011 1:20pm
Trying a long @ 76.83

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0128.jpg Size: 109 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #28,197
  • Oct 17, 2011 1:30pm Oct 17, 2011 1:30pm
Quoting FXMindset
Its great to see my old UJ friends again..seem that many Old UJ traders missing
Same - good to see you also.
  • #28,198
  • Oct 17, 2011 1:37pm Oct 17, 2011 1:37pm
Hello 2+2=4,

We've already live in the 76-77 range for almost 2 month,Do you trade other pairs mate?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,199
  • Oct 17, 2011 2:01pm Oct 17, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting FXMindset
Hello 2+2=4,

We've already live in the 76-77 range for almost 2 month,Do you trade other pairs mate?
Yes, I look at all the majors. I trade any of them when I see what I think is a good opportunity.
  • #28,200
  • Oct 17, 2011 4:08pm Oct 17, 2011 4:08pm
77+ beats daily, weekly and monthly pivot's......
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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