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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #3,061
  • Oct 17, 2011 5:44am Oct 17, 2011 5:44am
Quoting surfeur
Obejctif 1.3690 ? really ?
Hi Surfeur
Sorry I missed you. Welcome to EurAnalysis also
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,062
  • Oct 17, 2011 5:51am Oct 17, 2011 5:51am
Quoting Gofer Pips

I did see that but I was looking for a confirmation for a bigger move down. Now we have it on the daily. Just waiting for a nice pullback for entry. I am projecting perhaps 1.3810 to 1.3840 area for my entry. If we don't get it, I'll take the next opportunity.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,063
  • Oct 17, 2011 5:59am Oct 17, 2011 5:59am
German fin min warns summit won't bury euro crisis

Germany Shoots Down ‘Dreams’of Swift Euro Crisis Solution

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,064
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:16am Oct 17, 2011 6:16am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Chart says all

SL +2

Ride, Sally, Ride!
Yes, very nice. Got to say I was right on board, though slightly more aggressive (so what's new?). I had a moderate short on the ride which stopped out for small profit. I had it straddled with pending orders at 1.389 to go long, and 1.383 to go short so I could go to sleep, anticipating heavy price action one way or the other. I woke up just as my 1.389 activated, closed it for a small profit when it flattened with that double pin on the 15M chart and put on a moderate short again and left the extra short to activate.

What a beautiful thing to wake up to. 1.375 is my next level of uncertainty, could get our bounce there back up to 1.383 level again which should now act as resistance, then in for the short. I have closed one of my positions, letting one ride with a SL at 1.3805 which if it crosses I think will run to the 1.383 level. It is still the 4th quarter, I expect a lot more volatility on the ride down than we had on the last leg down, or up for that matter. I still wouldn't be surprised if we ended up near this level or just above at year end, but then January or February we will definitely be getting the bad news that the leading economic indicators are now showing as they appear in the lagging data.
  • #3,065
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:17am Oct 17, 2011 6:17am
Okay I have given up on my projection of a lower swing high before today's further drop.
It might happen but I am not waiting
Therefore I am cautiously short at 1.3773
Target is 1.3685 (major support)
No stop loss
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,066
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:25am Oct 17, 2011 6:25am
Hello,
Went flat last Monday on the industrial numbers out of Italy.
Since my basic game plan is to take only trades in alignment with my macro bullish USD views, the runup in the Euro and USD weakness overall was viewed as a countertrend move.
USD bullish remains a minority opinion. But I do believe that the USD is not to be plauged with Bernanke, Geithner or Obama forever.
The underlying global trade imbalances continue to drive currencies, but the tensions with Asia are growing and the political will to act in national self interest will become acts of self preservation as the future unfolds.

Went long USD this morning on the break of the hourly uptrend line against Euro, GBP, and Cad.
May be premature as the dailies have not confirmed the shift in market direction as of this post.
USD index is at major support levels on the weekly.

Expectations of a G20 resolution of the Euro debt crisis are overblown and now we are in a round of global QE. Since the only thing that will turn global GDP is some actual real growth not government intervention this is yet to manifest.

I think we are either at a resumption of a range bound market or the beginning of a USD gain period. Only time will tell.
  • #3,067
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:30am Oct 17, 2011 6:30am
Ok, now we have moved down to one of my 4H S/R at 1.3768. Lets see if she breaks and gives a continuation pattern, then 1.3643 is next.

See this chart but forget about the trendlines they are old and possibly not valid anymore.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post5006103
  • #3,068
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:35am Oct 17, 2011 6:35am
Out of Eur analysis - Good Opportunity to Longterm Long USDSGD - Monthly chart Attached - Trade with own risk with proper size position and Stop
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDSGD Monthly.png Size: 28 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #3,069
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:35am Oct 17, 2011 6:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
Okay I have given up on my projection of a lower swing high before today's further drop.
It might happen but I am not waiting
Therefore I am cautiously short at 1.3773
Target is 1.3685 (major support)
No stop loss
Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!!! That is what I like to see from our leader, decisive action.

PS very nice pin on the 5M chart, I just popped back in short after my stop got tripped well below this level. I am a happy man.
  • #3,070
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:40am Oct 17, 2011 6:40am
Quoting ntrprz
Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!!! That is what I like to see from our leader, decisive action.

PS very nice pin on the 5M chart, I just popped back in short after my stop got tripped well below this level. I am a happy man.
C'mon Scottie. I need warp 10 now. Screw you and your warp 8.6
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,071
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:42am Oct 17, 2011 6:42am
Hi I'm new to this thread, I'm actually new to FF, I just want to confirm, you all trade in the EUR/USD market? or are we talking about EUR futures?
  • #3,072
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:44am Oct 17, 2011 6:44am
Price has failed to break the H2 support so far is allowing the M30 to start into consolidation. This may take it into a slider at best, reversal at worst. Price could easily move back to the 3830/40 area. But I'm thinking 3800 should hold (no guarentee in this market though).

Need to get below, and remain below, the 3770/5 area to continue down. If so first target is 3717, next target 3663.

1000 bar should give more definition. We shall see.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,073
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:48am Oct 17, 2011 6:48am
Oh my, what happened while I was asleep..... Did the bulls run out of hopium?
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #3,074
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:50am Oct 17, 2011 6:50am
Quoting spzd
Price has failed to break the H2 support so far is allowing the M30 to start into consolidation. This may take it into a slider at best, reversal at worst. Price could easily move back to the 3830/40 area. But I'm thinking 3800 should hold (no guarentee in this market though).

Need to get below, and remain below, the 3770/5 area to continue down. If so first target is 3717, next target 3663.

1000 bar should give more definition. We shall see.
1.3830/40 area is what I was projecting for a swing high to form a lower top. It may still be in play but I took a small short at 1.3773 just to make sure I don't miss the bus. If it does make it back up there, I will scale in with more lots.
See my rationale with charts a few posts back.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,075
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:50am Oct 17, 2011 6:50am
Quoting tianle
Hi I'm new to this thread, I'm actually new to FF, I just want to confirm, you all trade in the EUR/USD market? or are we talking about EUR futures?
We are all about 15 and trade Demo accounts.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,076
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:51am Oct 17, 2011 6:51am
Quoting PipKiller
Oh my, what happened while I was asleep..... Did the bulls run out of hopium?
Yessirreee Check out the news items I posted
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,077
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:53am Oct 17, 2011 6:53am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
We are all about 15 and trade Demo accounts.

T
Tom... tsk tsk
Don't lie to a new comer. Not nice
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,078
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:55am Oct 17, 2011 6:55am
4 knholygrail:

I wonder where have you heard about that 60% haircut as 60% haircut = bankrupt. Last rumours I heard (Bloomberg news) were 40 - 50% and private sector was not willing to accept it at all.

Btw, when Argentina went bakrupt, haircut was 70%, so 60 really is bankrupt.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,079
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:56am Oct 17, 2011 6:56am
Quoting tianle
Hi I'm new to this thread, I'm actually new to FF, I just want to confirm, you all trade in the EUR/USD market? or are we talking about EUR futures?
Hi Tianle,
Welcome to EurAnalysis
Please read page 1 in order to familiarize yourself with the objectives and rules of this thread.
Here we discuss the Euro. Specifically the EUR/USD traded on spot market, not futures.
If this fits what you are looking for, I look forward to your future participation.
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,080
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:57am Oct 17, 2011 6:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
Tom... tsk tsk
Don't lie to a new comer. Not nice
That was just a reminder saying: Do not trust anyone here. Just learn.

I am sometimes so funny I dont even understand my own jokes.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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