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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #3,041
  • Oct 17, 2011 4:43am Oct 17, 2011 4:43am
Quoting The Fool
PT i'd say 1.4 will print today. 1.41 doable this week. but by midweek we see some rad swings and moves down. i am expecting some jitters before the summit weekend and leaks about what the various bank exposures to writedown requirements may be. I'm with you on some downside toward the end of week - 1.38 - 1.39 range.

euro strengh been muted today even thoug its been hella risk-on, we are just 10 pips are so off the weekly open as i type.

anything can happen. EZ A-team may just pull it all together and "solve" the crisis, in which case...
1.4 today based on weekly chart mate or?


Thanks
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #3,042
  • Oct 17, 2011 4:57am Oct 17, 2011 4:57am
Quoting FXMindset
1.4 today based on weekly chart mate or?


Thanks
fool has a sort of similar view to me
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #3,043
  • Oct 17, 2011 5:00am Oct 17, 2011 5:00am
Quoting FXMindset
1.4 today based on weekly chart mate or?


Thanks
extrapolation, but lets see what the headtalk does
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,044
  • Oct 17, 2011 5:14am Oct 17, 2011 5:14am
H4 channel support breached
H4 Bearish divergence in play
One more candle close below channel support will confirm it
Probably won't act on it though. Too much jawboning going on.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,045
  • Oct 17, 2011 5:15am Oct 17, 2011 5:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
a stoploss is like a magnet. The JPY has a habit of spiking and I do not wish to be taken out by any such spike.
How about other currencies? I get the impression that you are something like 65% stoploss, 35% no stoploss depending upon a variety of factors. Is that correct?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,046
  • Oct 17, 2011 5:28am Oct 17, 2011 5:28am
Quoting AaronWard
How about other currencies? I get the impression that you are something like 65% stoploss, 35% no stoploss depending upon a variety of factors. Is that correct?
I use stoploss for small time frame trading or when I have open positions and I need to go away from the computer for an extended period.

In position or swing trade setups (my favorite), I set my stop loss at close to break even once I see at least 2 waves between entry and current price and trail from there. Otherwise, no stop loss. I use recovery or loss mitigation instead. Much better that way for me. It's all in where you enter. I enter on pullbacks, not on breakouts. Or on bounces off strong resistance/support or Supply/Demand in direction of prevailing trend. In this way, if price goes against me, there is a much higher probability of recovery. With this method, I have not suffered losses other than from slippage at break even.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,047
  • Oct 17, 2011 5:34am Oct 17, 2011 5:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
I use stoploss for small time frame trading or when I have open positions and I need to go away from the computer for an extended period.

In position or swing trade setups (my favorite), I set my stop loss at close to break even once I see at least 2 waves between entry and current price and trail from there. Otherwise, no stop loss. I use recovery or loss mitigation instead. Much better that way for me. It's all in where you enter. I enter on pullbacks, not on breakouts. Or on bounces off strong resistance/support or Supply/Demand in direction...
Thanks. Very useful.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,048
  • Oct 17, 2011 5:43am Oct 17, 2011 5:43am
Well this baby has some serious bearish divergence.. Gonna watch the 3800-3780 levels to see what transpires. Had a long on last night and ate the greeny weenie on that trade, I missed my take profit, but no real damage done,very small loss. But saddle up folks unless they can pull some serious love and happiness for the euro out of there ass we could see a very profitable retracement, The projections between the last 3 1hr legs is feeble at best.. still i have a pit in my stomache that something stinks in shortsville. This thing at this point looks to be held up by good intentions not reality.. Gonna be a weird week start if it goes up yet again.
  • #3,049
  • Oct 17, 2011 5:48am Oct 17, 2011 5:48am
Chart says all

SL +2

Ride, Sally, Ride!
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  • #3,050
  • Oct 17, 2011 5:48am Oct 17, 2011 5:48am
Just as I start thinking that something really stinks here, this comes out from Bloomberg confirming my heightened sense of smell.

German Economic Outlook Continues to Worsen, Bundesbank Says

The outlook for German economic growth has worsened further as companies cut their business expectations and foreign orders decline, the Bundesbank said today in its monthly report.
“Businesses have again scaled back their expectations and the inflow of new orders, especially from abroad, has lessened noticeably,” the Frankfurt-based central bank said. Industrial companies will find it “difficult” to maintain output over the next six months amid weaker demand, it said.

ADD: Once I get PA confirmation on the daily chart, I'm shorting this sucker after a pullback on the H1/H4 charts.
.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,051
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:10am Oct 17, 2011 6:10am
PT,

I am enjoying your thread very much. This is the best thread on FF. Very thoughtful and insightful observations from all the participants.

I have to agree with you in looking for shorts at this time. My charts are showing downtrend on both monthly and weekly. I believe what last week was was a classic example of buy the rumour. This week will be sell the fact.

Price as of this post is at strong, but breakable, support on the H2. If this support can be broken, the day should close (1700 ET) at 3717 or lower.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,052
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:19am Oct 17, 2011 6:19am
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  • #3,053
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:21am Oct 17, 2011 6:21am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Obejctif 1.3690 ? really ?
  • #3,054
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:24am Oct 17, 2011 6:24am
I posted this on Sunday however I have Not Changed My Views !!!

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif My Common Sense On EUR/USD
The markets expectations are at a high. The USA avoids a double dip recession if the Eurozone solves it's problems.

There is a very important date coming up on October 23, 2011 which is one week from now.

Is there any possibility that they will solve the Greece debt problem by then ?

They are talking about haircuts of 60% now.

Noyer just ruled out Euro zone defaults after Greece. There are Banks that have to agree to haircuts. There are 17 countries in the Euro zone. The German public is not happy. The Greek public is not happy. The Italian public are not happy. The IMF has it's position. Geithner has his position.
The ECB has their position. the G-20 just told the ECB to solve all the problems in 8 days... Now it is one week. The markets are at the top of resistance.

There are central bank meetings over the next two weeks. The FED meets for two days on November 1 and 2ND at at 2:15 PM they announce their position. We have Non Farm Payroll coming up the first Friday in November. The G-20 meet in Cannes, France on November 3RD and November 4TH

Is there any possibility that there will be no negative information over the next 15 days ?

What do you think ?

I think BUY THE RUMOR SELL THE NEWS !!!

However watch Price Action and be in no rush to ride this baby down. You cannot lose waiting for the right moment to enter. Look at Support and Resistance on the Daily Chart and 4 Hour Chart and 15 Minutes and 5 Minute if you are a scalper.

Be patient. Be Wise. Be smart and use your Common Sense.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...ading_dark.gif

  • #3,055
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:28am Oct 17, 2011 6:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
I use stoploss for small time frame trading or when I have open positions and I need to go away from the computer for an extended period.

In position or swing trade setups (my favorite), I set my stop loss at close to break even once I see at least 2 waves between entry and current price and trail from there. Otherwise, no stop loss. I use recovery or loss mitigation instead. Much better that way for me. It's all in where you enter. I enter on pullbacks, not on breakouts. Or on bounces off strong resistance/support or Supply/Demand in direction...
Hi PT,

Great thread and some very educating posts - thanks.

On Friday I went short on eur/usd at 1.3888, sl 1.3908.... got taken out this morning and missed out on a very nice 100+ pip run :-(

looking at the daily charts, eur looks as if it could hit 3150 by end of October...
patience is a virtue
  • #3,056
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:30am Oct 17, 2011 6:30am
Quoting knoholygrail
I posted this on Sunday however I have Not Changed My Views !!!

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif My Common Sense On EUR/USD
The markets expectations are at a high. The USA avoids a double dip recession if the Eurozone solves it's problems.

There is a very important date coming up on October 23, 2011 which is one week from now.

Is there any possibility that they will solve the Greece debt problem by then ?

They are talking about haircuts of 60% now.

Noyer just ruled out Euro zone defaults after Greece....
This is good stuff and good advice. Since I don't hold trades for more than a few hours I take them when my system says, whether short or long. At 3 to 5 standard lots per trade, all you need is 40 or 50 pips a day. Everything else is gravy.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,057
  • Oct 17, 2011 6:39am Oct 17, 2011 6:39am
Quoting lovepips
Hi PT,

Great thread and some very educating posts - thanks.

On Friday I went short on eur/usd at 1.3888, sl 1.3908.... got taken out this morning and missed out on a very nice 100+ pip run :-(

looking at the daily charts, eur looks as if it could hit 3150 by end of October...
Hello Mate,

Try to never think about missing out of pips but think that lucky you get out quickly and what "If" the moves turn back against you just ?

There are many chances to catch a lot of pips,just be patient
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #3,058
  • Oct 17, 2011 7:36am Oct 17, 2011 7:36am
I know I've already posted this but hey... This is my setup

EUR/USD daily chart
1. 50% fib
2. Supply zone
3. Bearish divergence
4. Double Top
5. 50 (red) sma bounce
6. 4 comments on chart.
7. Stochastics turning down.

USD Index Chart
1. 50% fib
2. Bullish Divergence
3. 200 (yellow) ema bounce
4. Stochastics turning up

Upon next next swing high and lower top on H1, I will short.

.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: dx-d1.gif Size: 23 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,059
  • Oct 17, 2011 7:38am Oct 17, 2011 7:38am
Quoting FXMindset
Hello Mate,

Try to never think about missing out of pips but think that lucky you get out quickly and what "If" the moves turn back against you just ?

There are many chances to catch a lot of pips,just be patient
Hi FXMindset, thanks for the advice, I'm new to forex so any bits of advice are welcome.....

thanks again
patience is a virtue
  • #3,060
  • Oct 17, 2011 7:42am Oct 17, 2011 7:42am
Quoting spzd
PT,

I am enjoying your thread very much. This is the best thread on FF. Very thoughtful and insightful observations from all the participants.

I have to agree with you in looking for shorts at this time. My charts are showing downtrend on both monthly and weekly. I believe what last week was was a classic example of buy the rumour. This week will be sell the fact.

Price as of this post is at strong, but breakable, support on the H2. If this support can be broken, the day should close (1700 ET) at 3717 or lower.

Quoting lovepips
Hi PT,

Great thread and some very educating posts - thanks.

On Friday I went short on eur/usd at 1.3888, sl 1.3908.... got taken out this morning and missed out on a very nice 100+ pip run :-(

looking at the daily charts, eur looks as if it could hit 3150 by end of October...
Hi Spzd and Lovepips.
Welcome to EurAnalysis and thanks for your comments.
You probably know the drill if you've been keeping up, but just in case, do please visit Page 1 to familiarize yourselves with the objectives and rules of this thread. There you will also find some instructions and a resource section which you may find handy
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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