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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #2,981
  • Oct 16, 2011 9:25pm Oct 16, 2011 9:25pm
Quoting PipKiller
When things get too screwy I look at AUD$ or $CAD to trade.

One thing I like to look at is the correlation of the EUR$ and the $CHF on the 60 minute. The $CHF often leads price of the euro and is a good leading indicator that money flow is into, or out of, the US$ as volume traded is lower with $CHF than EUR$
its all one big trade. the eur and the usd make up prolly over 3/4 of the whole pie in any given day. For instance, you can watch the e/u to see of it leads the a/u, or vice versa. Sometimes that occurs either way & with enough of a lag to scalp entry.

there are some odd crosses i like to trade: AUD/NZD is a nice ranging pair, just hard to scalp with a 5pip spread. but it holds to its short-term trends sometimes quite well, also (look at a 4h or 8h chart) so it can pay. Even there, though, AUD will assume the risk-on winner position, and as such E/U is a signal for AUD/NZD, too.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,982
  • Oct 16, 2011 9:45pm Oct 16, 2011 9:45pm
Correlations are a wonderful thing.

I really am curious who is squatting on the offer in the E$ with Asian stock markets still rallying.

The Giant Panda at work mabey?


Edit..... After looking at the other pairs it looks like US$ in demand
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #2,983
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:01pm Oct 16, 2011 10:01pm
Quoting PipKiller
Correlations are a wonderful thing.

I really am curious who is squatting on the offer in the E$ with Asian stock markets still rallying.

The Giant Panda at work mabey?


Edit..... After looking at the other pairs it looks like US$ in demand
Yeah, Helicopter Ben isn't shipping them around the world today, people actually have to buy them.

Could also be indicative that the Euro is under pressure. I am on the sidelines. Closed out my little positions, fooled around with AUDUSD and lost a couple bucks before I got bored with that sideways fest and not liking the charts. I think I might go to bed and wait for morning with fresh perspective. That or put a couple limits to activate if it goes one way or the other.
  • #2,984
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:08pm Oct 16, 2011 10:08pm
Update on my trade.

Currently +31

Moving the SL to the 20ems baseline of the bollinger bands @ 1.3863 to at least lock in 22 pips for a 1.5:1 R/R ratio if this trade goes against me with the Asian stock market rallying and US Indice futures up 0.5% looking "risk on" so far.

Lock in somethinhg and let it ride to see if she can bust through the 1.3838 - 1.3845

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #2,985
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:10pm Oct 16, 2011 10:10pm
Quoting PipKiller
Edit..... After looking at the other pairs it looks like US$ in demand
i'll get off the euro bull train when e/u can put together a couple good sized 4h red candles
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,986
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:11pm Oct 16, 2011 10:11pm
Key thing here is to took at their movement since open. If the Nikki opens up 1.45% this is because it is following the movement up from the night before in the US stocks. So really, the Asian stock are flat.

Everybody is trying to figure out "what is next".
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,987
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:11pm Oct 16, 2011 10:11pm
gold and silver supply levels not holding well.

gold is in demand, and silver is hopping around on supply yet not showing bearish momentum, or bullish rejections etc.

i am long on gold, and a chart maybe wont be useful to this thread.

"euranalysis"

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,988
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:12pm Oct 16, 2011 10:12pm
Quoting AaronWard
Key thing here is to took at their movement since open. If the Nikki opens up 1.45% this is because it is following the movement up from the night before in the US stocks. So really, the Asian stock are flat.

Everybody is trying to figure out "what is next".
asian stocks are yes, flat from that major rallies especially the hang seng. people took profits, while others still held. Its still at an equilibrium, its not that much tilted yet to that one side in which we need it to
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,989
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:31pm Oct 16, 2011 10:31pm
Quoting The Fool
i'll get off the euro bull train when e/u can put together a couple good sized 4h red candles
This actually makes quite a bit of sense.

There are a number of different explanations for what is happening, and predictions for where price is going. Three I haven't seen are
a) the problem is Europe is fixed
b) we have seen the worst that the euro has to offer
c) sit back and relax, 1.5 is on the way
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,990
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:34pm Oct 16, 2011 10:34pm
hangseng up, fashion stocks up, shanghai composite up nikkei up by about a percent, fashion around 5% above.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,991
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:36pm Oct 16, 2011 10:36pm
Quoting freiburg
see this is what i don't know. my world is not in shit. I have good salary and switzerland is just fine. my family in usa they are not in shit either.

So the only way i know about shit is what news tells me!

When i drive around germany or france, i don't see shit, just nice little towns with nice homes and pretty gardens, and lots of people driving nice cars.

Food is pretty good too.

So i don't see the shit. Even in greece, the holidays are still fantastic.

but i guess if the world is in shit, i have to believe it....just dont experience...
Never believe what you see, only what you read.

Inserted Video


The irony is that as good as things are, we spend far more time worrying about how bad they are that we did at probably any other time in history. Today Sars creates more global panic than the black plague ever did.

(PT -- this is my explanation on why I am bullish on the Euro long term.)
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,992
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:44pm Oct 16, 2011 10:44pm
Quoting AaronWard
Key thing here is to took at their movement since open. If the Nikki opens up 1.45% this is because it is following the movement up from the night before in the US stocks. So really, the Asian stock are flat.

Everybody is trying to figure out "what is next".
OK, I understand. I knew they often followed the US market but never put together how they moved after open. Thank you

Blasted right through 1.3838, that's what I've been looking for.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #2,993
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:56pm Oct 16, 2011 10:56pm
Quoting PipKiller
OK, I understand. I knew they often followed the US market but never put together how they moved after open. Thank you

Blasted right through 1.3838, that's what I've been looking for.
Aisan stocks are important. Sometimes they lead...other times they follow...it is hard to figure out some times, but there are some tricks.

My favorite is the Hang Seng. People in Hong Kong live by managing trade and money flows between China and the world. Probably only Singapore has an equivalent "international" bias. While we watch news releases, the people in HK watch order flow for their particular industry.

Watching the Hang Seng works well in two time frames.

A. The hourly: it is one of the first to open in the day and as such it gives a hint on what will happen the rest of the day.
B. The daily: it is an advanced warning signal that the global economy is slowing down.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,994
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:05pm Oct 16, 2011 11:05pm
Good Morning Tokyo - Good Morning Everyone
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #2,995
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:12pm Oct 16, 2011 11:12pm
Thank you Aaron, I learn something everyday on how to look at the bigger picture in FX trading from traders like yourself on this thread.

Good Monday Morning FXMindset
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #2,996
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:17pm Oct 16, 2011 11:17pm
Quoting AaronWard
Aisan stocks are important. Sometimes they lead...other times they follow...it is hard to figure out some times, but there are some tricks.

My favorite is the Hang Seng. People in Hong Kong live by managing trade and money flows between China and the world. Probably only Singapore has an equivalent "international" bias. While we watch news releases, the people in HK watch order flow for their particular industry.

Watching the Hang Seng works well in two time frames.

A. The hourly: it is one of the first to open in the day and as...

silver and gold lead as well

good morning fxmindset
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,997
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:24pm Oct 16, 2011 11:24pm
Quoting PipKiller
learn something everyday...
As do I. My basic moto is if I'm not learning, I'm not there.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,998
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:51pm Oct 16, 2011 11:51pm
Quoting bumapatria
silver and gold lead as well

good morning fxmindset
Morning also Little bro ~
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #2,999
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:54pm Oct 16, 2011 11:54pm
Quoting FXMindset
Morning also Little bro ~
selamat pagi

..big bro
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #3,000
  • Oct 17, 2011 12:15am Oct 17, 2011 12:15am
Thanks Buma,

Gold and silver are just something I've never followed. I've honestly never sat down and took the time to dig deeper and look into them. Oil and Copper I do keep an eye on.

I try to learn something new everyday, currency, travel, history, military, language... Whatever I'm into at the moment is what I seek out. When I'm 80 and forget half of everything, I'll still know more than when I was 20 LOL.


Final update on my trade.

Didn't hit my hard target of 1.3810 on this intraday trade, but I was taken out trailing my tight SL on previous candle along the 20ema base line of the Bollinger bands on the 15 minute chart @ 1.3854 for +31 pips 2.1:1 R/R ratio +4% profit in the account for today. Price dipped to about exactly to the short term S/R line I just drew in in purple and bounced instead of going to my demand zone 18 pips lower. I really like trailing with the 20 ema, one of the best ways I've found to maximize profit and let the trade run as long as you can to get all that you safely can out of the trade. Exit on the touch or close above the 20 ema the next timeframe up from the chart you used for entry.

I mimimized my risk and took what she would give me and I'm happy with that. Thank you everyone, trade well, green pips for all.

Time for bed and be back whenever I wake up. I don't have an alarm clock

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Price is also closing in on the bottom of the nice bull channel on the 240
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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
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