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  • #550,821
  • Oct 16, 2011 9:56am Oct 16, 2011 9:56am
Quoting Faller
So you are looking for a channel breakdown to the south? If that is the case......what would be your confirmation for price to drop to the south.

Thanks......

Faller.
Hello , well first of all we would have to see where the price will be when the markets opens , i would short if i see channel trendline retest after it's broken and + some sort of divergence , still it's to difficult to tell , have to see where the price will be after market opens ...
P.S Yes south
  • #550,822
  • Oct 16, 2011 9:58am Oct 16, 2011 9:58am
Quoting LeanLowFx
I think it's time for this channel to break , 3rd divergence in a row , the question is how much it can hold before break ? It will soon hit 2 big old support levels that might act as new resistance . I'm flat , will wait for breakout , and more comfirmations to short .
Might be a bit early to call from looking at h4 but we shall see soon.
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  • #550,823
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:07am Oct 16, 2011 10:07am
Quoting 2046
Might be a bit early to call from looking at h4 but we shall see soon.
hmm... diveregence...

hows the chikou span and kumo doing on lower timeframes?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #550,824
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:11am Oct 16, 2011 10:11am
Quoting 2046
Might be a bit early to call from looking at h4 but we shall see soon.
I aggree it would be foolish to go against the trend , need to see clear nice breakout and retest + other signals like fibbo / divergence for confirm .
  • #550,825
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:14am Oct 16, 2011 10:14am
Quoting LeanLowFx
I aggree it would be foolish to go against the trend , need to see clear nice breakout and retest + other signals like fibbo / divergence wouldn't hurt eather
So is the trend up (based on sharp spike last week) or is the trend down (based on multiweek downtrend before last week).

They say the rallies are powerful up spikes in the overall bearmarket, whereas bull markets go higher a bit more slowly but also built on a more solid foundation.

I'm not sure what is the trend, but I think it is down, and I think this was a nasty bear market rally which is about to come to a halt.
  • #550,826
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:29am Oct 16, 2011 10:29am
Quoting freiburg
So is the trend up (based on sharp spike last week) or is the trend down (based on multiweek downtrend before last week).

They say the rallies are powerful up spikes in the overall bearmarket, whereas bull markets go higher a bit more slowly but also built on a more solid foundation.

I'm not sure what is the trend, but I think it is down, and I think this was a nasty bear market rally which is about to come to a halt.
The trend now is deffinetly bullish (H1 , H4 ) , but it's about to change , we just need to see when it will be best time to adapt to the market flow , that can be done by analyzing . You can't know when it will change or for how long it will go up for now . In my eyes best option would be to wait for channel breakout and then retest of the channel trendline + like i said before other signals , like fibbo / divergence . Entering the trade when you see all your signals matching is the key of success . In my eyes it's beter to trade few times a week but have high success , then to have more trades and have less winning chance , if you get what i meant . (Sorry for gramma mistakes , english is my second language) .
  • #550,827
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:33am Oct 16, 2011 10:33am
Quoting LeanLowFx
I think it's time for this channel to break , 3rd divergence in a row , the question is how much it can hold before break ? It will soon hit 2 big old support levels that might act as new resistance . I'm flat , will wait for breakout , and more comfirmations to short .
Of course this channel will break, and soon.
On the way back there is one area that is untouched by retraces, between 1.3520 and 1.3565, so I expect at least a retrace to 1.3520.
But to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if we would go much lower.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #550,828
  • Edited 11:23am Oct 16, 2011 10:37am | Edited 11:23am
Hi guys,

so here is a bunch of elliot wave statisics examining cycle starting at 6.6.2010, with zooming to minor cycles, until H4/H1 timeframe prediction for next week.

As usual, I encourage you to tear charts apart and select different points for measuring, stats you want, whatever, I ve got loads of these.

It is a zipped word 2010 document, so if you cant read it, and are interested in stats, ask for printscreens. For the most lazy ones, I include H4 prediction.

Edit for lazy guys: - Red dotted TL are h4 predictions, yellow H1 predictions. I expect retest of dotted ressistance zone and breakpoint to downtrend.

Regards,

Tom
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Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Statisics - 16.10..zip   133 KB | 345 downloads
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #550,829
  • Edited 11:00am Oct 16, 2011 10:40am | Edited 11:00am
Quoting kenfen69
Hmmmmm....I must be missing something. You said...



You're currently long Gold based off the attached pic, correct? So if it is "wrong" and your analysis says 1513.38...aka Strong Bearish...

Why...



Confoosed I am. Little help?
Confused me too , 1661 not unlikely before 1696 though , big bear still there sitting just unable take &may for more correction before the try again. limit up high enough 1762, 1745 ok if .

usdjpy may up at tl with bo but may not before some turmoil at some lows for few days or a week . so risk aversion for a short time with gold up before risk on with possible intervention continues, gold down .if understand correctly or nearer this risk matter , recently looking /learning to use real time.

anyway why may likely go 1661 in lower tf , not in chart though posted.mofu may not care that though .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #550,830
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:55am Oct 16, 2011 10:55am
As I read micho wroting about divergences, here are some more stats. Examined period is minor cycle 11,7 - till now, H4 closing prices.

Green line - 30 momentum
Red - 90 momentum
Blue - 180 mom

Green momentum is coming to a divergence now, It will be one hint to a final breakdown if divergence appears in longer momentums as well.

T.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #550,831
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:09am Oct 16, 2011 11:09am
Quoting kenfen69
Hmmmmm....I must be missing something. You said...



You're currently long Gold based off the attached pic, correct? So if it is "wrong" and your analysis says 1513.38...aka Strong Bearish...

Why...



Confoosed I am. Little help?
because there might be a retracement before hitting the target, it is a 2000 pips trend, i cannot afford that much drawdow, i play smaller trends maximum around 400~500 pips
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #550,832
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:17am Oct 16, 2011 11:17am
Quoting micho
I need to get rid of my open GOLD asap... I just realized it is in a wrong position

Those are my completed and floating trades from last week




Here...
nice one
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #550,833
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:18am Oct 16, 2011 11:18am
Quoting PhAnTi'
nice one
thanks, nice quote under your nickname loool
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #550,834
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:23am Oct 16, 2011 11:23am
Quoting freiburg
So is the trend up (based on sharp spike last week) or is the trend down (based on multiweek downtrend before last week).

They say the rallies are powerful up spikes in the overall bearmarket, whereas bull markets go higher a bit more slowly but also built on a more solid foundation.

I'm not sure what is the trend, but I think it is down, and I think this was a nasty bear market rally which is about to come to a halt.
Trends are defined by LLs,LHs,HLs,HHs .... so there you go , have fun ; p

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Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #550,835
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:25am Oct 16, 2011 11:25am
Quoting PhAnTi'
Trends are defined by LLs,LHs,HLs,HHs .... so there you go , have fun ; p

Attachment
1.4000 area will be the key at TA side to get higher...anyway i will keep to the technicals but at the moment i dont feel like selling this weekly bar....

ill switch to other pairs
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #550,836
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:36am Oct 16, 2011 11:36am
Quoting PhAnTi'
1.4000 area will be the key at TA side to get higher...anyway i will keep to the technicals but at the moment i dont feel like selling this weekly bar....

ill switch to other pairs
Quoting PhAnTi'
all in all i'll lose my bet against Wulfgar anyway .....

but i didnt fade this uptrend, took 2 shorts in profit the day before yesterday : p


bed s calling, see you around

take care.

Jonas
So I like some fine Belgian Beers

How about a bottle of this http://www.hercafe.net/luxury/vieill...-700-a-bottle/ for starters?

Of course saying that now we will probably never reach 1.4 and ill be eating crow...lol

lookin forward to your swing trading thread phanti.. ill help contribute to it as well
  • #550,837
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:36am Oct 16, 2011 11:36am
Quoting 2046
Might be a bit early to call from looking at h4 but we shall see soon.

Agree.Hard to be bearish in current situation. No matter where you look ,all regression channel is pointing upwards except weekly. Daily ichi says we may be seeing 409x (daily breakdown confluence) area soon. We will see if the last strong supply of the recent time (3920) can hold.
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  • #550,838
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:44am Oct 16, 2011 11:44am
Take 1

Take 2

Take 3
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #550,839
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:44am Oct 16, 2011 11:44am
Quoting Wulfgar
So I like some fine Belgian Beers

How about a bottle of this http://www.hercafe.net/luxury/vieill...-700-a-bottle/ for starters?

Of course saying that now we will probably never reach 1.4 and ill be eating crow...lol

lookin forward to your swing trading thread phanti.. ill help contribute to it as well
hahah lol ok

well see

ill start my journal in mid november.

Jonas
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #550,840
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:46am Oct 16, 2011 11:46am
Quoting Chicky
Take 1

Take 2

Take 3
?
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
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