EurAnalysis

Oh... that

oh....

My lady forgive me, for i did not mean to harm your delicate feelings, i hope your husband wont kill me..


(is this some prank u pulling off on me? like 2wice or more? haha)

I have read it but I will read it again.

u are woman also mate?

its gotta be ducks... yeah ducks



its ducks u mean right?

You guessed it D****=Ducks

No.. Sagittarius man married to a Taurus woman

Playing the long term...impossible if you cant stay away from FF on a saturday. You just have to wait so, so long.

The key thing is that there is about 4 trillion USD just sitting around doing nothing. 2 trillion in banks and another 2 trillion on corporate ledgers. This is an enourmous time bomb. Also, Americans take a cowboy approach to monetary policy. Somehow all the crazy stuff they do always seems to work out. For them at least. Europeans are different. They are much more conservative.

But still, I have to think that things are going to get worse before they get better.

back in a few min. Have to tend to something.

back to analyzing euro/usd not pegasus and horoscopes...
anyways
we are at an interesting point here. rejections before at current level possible double top, once market opens ima short, oh wait gap... crud.
well, anyways, its a good place for low risk short of stop loss at 20 pips from current level.

at 161.8% held before, dont know if it is now. last time it held im guessing that was profit taking, not really much of selling spree or sell-off or panic sell

well at least im carrying a silver short over weekend. gaps up, ill jsut go rescue it. weekend gaps are not much of big deal to me and my broker has no carry trade fees, or swap fees, so its all good.

for a break of the downward angle or trendline, its too weak, and i it pierces above, it'll go. its not imo, that aggresive enough break yet.

i wanna get married...waaaaa

im jealous lol.

no gf at the moment, coz i dont think short term for girls. if i get girls like the way i trade, its.. nuts. snipe here, close. snipe there close..

oi...

The good thing about the currency spot markets is that it is mostly driven by speculation.

So if it looks like the US economy has a chance to improve (evidenced by job growth and expansion of service sector and housing market), Speculation will drive money flows to USDs creating a demand for that supply which will diminish as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet (QT1=Quantitative Tightening 1). Ergo USD bullish. Of course that does not mean that the EUR/USD will be bearish because what's good for the US economy is good for the global economy and ECB will tighten more and quicker than the FED (assumption based on recent history). Therefore, EUR/USD will most likely be stable to bullish. In such an environment, a good trade will be bullish on USD/JPY. But we're a long way away from that yet

I love Saturday morning's since there is peace and quiet and no distractions for me. I am all alone with my thoughts. No wife or lady friend or children or animals.

I just read this article which I find very helpful so I will post the link here for all to read or not. There in my opinion is much wisdom here.

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/succe...47683?FIELD9=2

I am not promoting any commercial content in it.

Snippets:

The financial markets, as anyone familiar with them knows, have a logic of their own, which is in a way the opposite of normal logic. Hence the market adage ‘sell on the news’ applies to good news not bad news. Hence other bits of market lore like ‘a bull market climbs a wall of worry: A bear market flows down a river of hope.’

Markets do whatever they need to do to confound the greatest number of people.

This happens because prices reflect expectations. If everyone expects unemployment to rise, or a trade balance to fall, or inflation to remain steady, there is no intrinsic reason why they should be wrong: The expectation doesn’t affect the outcome.

But if everyone expects shares to fall, or the dollar to rise, there is every reason why they should be wrong: Because current share price levels already reflect the expectations of lower prices, and the current level of the dollar already discounts a rise.

In other words, the expectation cancels the outcome.
You can see why Mr. John Percival is an excellent mentor. One more interesting thing Mr. Percival wrote in his book, which he later said he wished he left out was this:

“Active traders have little to lose and much to gain by observing the following maxim: Distrust price action ahead of a full moon, trust the action after it.

“Rationalize it as you please: The impression is that market action tends to be primitive, dim, and emotional before full moons, and more collected and rational after them; and that there is sometimes a periodicity in currency fluctuations which can be almost as reliable as the tide!”

Snippets:

Successful trading is not about being a genius, but about constantly exploiting ‘the little edge.’

In short, we all can and should have reasons and rationales in our mind about why we have taken our positions. We need that confidence to push us over the edge so we can take a position in the first place, i.e. pull the trigger.

But we must understand that our beliefs can be destroyed by the market at any moment. And that moment usually happens when we too fervently argue said beliefs.

Best wishes,
Jack

Here is a comment by a reader that I copy and paste as it is very important to remember.

Trading Forex is a business of supply and demand. It is also a playing field for others to make profits. Thus it is a game as well and the rules are set by those with the power to set them.

All factors outside of this are short term not important when the power's that be whether for profits or politics or for whatever reason decide to use their power the GAME becomes fixed so you must at least be aware of it if nothing else.

If you can have the imagination to understand the GAME you can get an EDGE !!!

Reader's comments;

Reply
vj October 15, 2011 am31 9:41 am at 9:41 am Unless a trader is willing to deal with the fact that the markets are heavily manipulated. Now more than ever. Whatever reasoning they want to believe for market action, such as the hogwash spewed by the financial media, will be wishful thinking. The proof? Easy. Gov’t “intervention” in their currency markets. Central banks selling tonnes of gold. Bernanke and his predecessors doing anything. The Plunge Protection Team authorized to keep the stock market from crashing. Enron. Arthur Andersen and the other accounting firms helping big companies cook their books, basic lie, cheat, and steal 101. Presidents filling the strategic oil reserve at ever higher prices keeping excess oil off the market along with his cronies building tank farms and leasing tankers to do same. “Investment banksters” given trillions of our future tax obligations to run up all markets to create pseudo inflation that will evaporate as soon as the give away spigot is shut off. Need I go on? If Soros never admits to manipulating markets in his book then it isn’t telling the whole story. Their are large traders who manipulate some of the currency pairs in their favor as well. Doesn’t mean they always can or always will but the likes of all the banksters and those allowed to take unfair advantage, like those few who were allowed to trade mutual funds after hours a few years ago… all those rip off types including some ceo’s who lie cheat and steal for big bonuses when they should get the boot instead, are the reason we have protests and why the socialists and commies are getting their foot in the door, Obama for instance. So if the capitalists don’t clear out the criminals and govt run amuck, there is going to be much more pain of socialism or worse.

http://www.guildinvestment.com/

I find there views fair and objective. It gives me another point of view. Each day I get hundreds of emails and I read about 25 each day that interest me with all different points of view. I have been reading and subscribing to some of them for 12 years now and I know which ones are reliable and make sense.

I read all points of view and then I form my own consensus.

Part of this newsletter talks about the current Europe situation which is useful to read.

Snippet:

Europe Moving In the Right Direction
Several notable developments occurred in rapid succession this past weekend, leading us to feel cautiously hopeful about Europe’s hitherto careening economic, fiscal, and banking crisis. We are gaining some confidence — that the risk of falling into the abyss may be receding.
Here’s what’s happened:
• On Friday, the sovereign debt of Spain and Italy were downgraded by Fitch Ratings, and Moody’s put Belgium on review for a possible downgrade. Good, sober moves.
• Just prior to the weekend France-Germany summit came a plea for a “sustained contribution to restoring trust” from the largest business federations in Germany, France, and Italy. As reported by The Financial Times, the federations proposed a treaty “to turn the planned European Stabilisation Mechanism — the permanent replacement for the $590 billion European Financial Stability Facility — into an independent fund, granting aid to debt-strapped countries but also promoting growth.
• Then, on Sunday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy — the leaders of the Eurozone’s two biggest economies — reached a decisive agreement to recapitalize Europe’s banks. Mr. Sarkozy described the plan as “total.” Details were not released, however, pending further discussions later this month with other continental leaders at an EU summit gathering.
This last development impresses us as particularly auspicious. If banks become sufficiently capitalized they will be in better shape to withstand any aftershocks associated with government defaults on bond payments. A government in default is far from desirable and will result in a lowering of the national standard of living for decades, but if defaults lead to a weakened or failing regional/global banking system, repercussions are much more severe. The entire European region, and indeed much of the world, could experience a lowered of standard of living for decades.
In our opinion, it is far superior to contain crises within the countries where they begin. Part of the damage control strategy must be to ensure that the capitalization and operational status of banks remain solid.
More confidence restoration action is coming from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Bank of England. Both are taking steps to create more liquidity and continuing their quantitative easing programs. Click here to read a Wall Street Journal article on IMF plans for a new line of credit liquidity to help countries with a short-term cash squeeze avoid long-term debt crisis. To read about the Bank of England’s latest bond-buying incentive, click here.

G20 Maintains Pressure on Euro Zone Over Debt Crisis

Germany and France are trying to put flesh on the bones of a crisis resolution plan in time for the EU summit. It will involve plans to recapitalize banks, make Greek's debt mountain more sustainable and ramp up the firepower of the bloc's rescue fund. For once in the long-running crisis, the timetable is ambitious.

There were growing signs that Greece's creditor banks would fight any attempt to make them shoulder a bigger burden in restructuring Greece's debts. The Franco-German plan is likely to ask banks to accept bigger losses on their debt than the 21 percent agreed in July, which looks insufficient.

Yet to be decided is whether that can be achieved with the voluntary participation of the banks. Much depends on their attitude.

Hmmm I'm thinking nothing is going to be resolved before the next G20 meeting.

“It may well be in the interest of the BRIC countries to prop the Euro up”

“BRIC countries have to initially make sure that Europe can take action to rescue itself before being saved by BRIC”

http://www.dukascopy.com/video/pdf/2011/10/14/EC.pdf

just for fun, look on your daily e/u chart at what happened to the e/u after the last G-20 summit. It was in Seoul week of Nov 8, 2010.

will do fool

selloff.

Are things good this weekend ? Are you ready for the week ahead ? I sometimes get bored on Saturday. I have been reading and doing my research and now on to the rest of this Saturday. Take care and be well.

hey man im all good so far, how things treating you? ive done extra research as well, back-testing my methods, try to minimize flaws as much as possible, re-evaluated myself so yeah lot of stuff

hey you too dude, take care

would like to see you anlayze once opens ah