EurAnalysis

Hi Rod,
I believe they are suggesting that due to the nationalization of Dexia which now rules out the triggering of the CDS (Credit Default Swap), and in conjunction with the fact that France now has to guarantee over €200 billion of bonds and securities, the spread between German and French bond yields is growing to the point that France is soon going to be slapped with a credit downgrade by the rating agencies. That could very well happen today after NY closes, but then it might not happen at all.
If it does happen, it's the perfect storm. Down goes the euro, hello risk-off sentiment and hello soaring USD index.
I have no problem placing a small short position on the Euro over the weekend just in case but I won't be doing it until close to NY close to make way for any possible last minute SP500 rally into the close.
It's a long shot but we've pretty much exhausted this rally anyway. Look at my attached daily chart.

1. Extreme reverse bearish divergence
2. Price has met major resistance at the bottom of an old channel that gave way to the big drop that started all this (This is confirmed by a pullback to it the next day before continuing down followed by another test of the channel bottom 4 days later which also met major resistance and failed. Now we're there again.)
3. This area also homes the 50% fibo level of the entire move down as well as the daily 50 ema
4. The 5.3.3 stochastics indicator is above 80 and turning down.
5. Price is currently in a major supply zone (Blue shaded area)

Even if it is not ready to head down yet, and it keeps going up, the technicals are still screaming exhaustion and a reversal. Therefore it may happen around 1.40 area which would invalidate the channel bottom reason and substitute the 50ema with the 200ema and also substitute the 50% fib with the 61.8% fib. If it does go that far up first, then the drop down will be even more probable and will happen with or without a French downgrade. How far it goes down without a French downgrade is something we will have to wait and see, but with a French downgrade from these levels, based on my probable projections from a technical perspective, we may see 1.24. From the 61.8 fib line my projections put it around 1.26

Like I said, it's a long shot for tonight but even without an event to drive it, a major correction will happen eventually.

.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/77442554/

devil's in the details. Who takes a haircut? Where are the writedowns? details, please? the euro will fall when the details arrive.

but i'm not picking tops and i'm not shorting EUR until the liquidity train runs out of steam. Details on the writedown & haircuts etc will be a cold water soak for the firebox. If you've been trying to fade this euro run up then you understand the meaning of futility. Pushing 900 pips in 2 weeks with a 150pip pullback the best a short could find. Just go with the flow...

expectations are high that details will be decided by Cannes, will begin to leak in week or so before. bull runs, bear runs, always run out of steam. this one too...but not quite yet

Try to share monday outlook - not confirmed yet

Personaly I think the daily Double Top might be break and test 13980-14,Lets see together later


Have a Nice Weekend all

Thanks MotownPhil for your excellent commentary.

I fully agree that this is a manipulation and I recognized it on Monday. However, that recognition will not sway me from my overall bearish stance. No I am not going to blindly short the euro and endure negative pips. I am not here to lose but to make money. I believe it does have a high potential of gong higher from here before turning around but I am not taking any long positions in absence of fundamental support. This is simply because I don't have to, so why take the risk?. Following fundamentals in confluence with technicals has always been good to me so I don't feel that going against my trading style is a good idea. Nor should it be a good idea for anyone else to go against theirs if it is producing profit for them.

If your trading style is to follow price action (primarily) and divergence (secondarily), then that is what you should stick to also. I know many traders and just as many trading styles. Everyone has their edge. Those who don't should not be trading big money until they find it. That's what micro-lots are for. Call it research and development. If you make money, great. If you lose some, call it tuition fees. Of course for testing one's strategy I highly recommend demo accounts. As for the rest of you who do have an edge and it is working for you, stick with it. If you want to try a different strategy to see if you can improve your edge, use micro-lots or try it in a demo.

I fully respect everyone's opinion and a right to have one and express it. However, I created this thread so that everyone can share their trading calls and ideas backed up by their rationale and supported by facts, while at the same time recognizing that there are as many successful strategies and styles as there are successful traders. Therefore it goes against the objectives and rules of this thread for one to declare one's style/strategy as "the only way" and declare all others as "crap & bullshit". I blocked a person yesterday for the exact same reason after I repeatedly requested that the rules be followed. Those requests were ignored.

Piptradder, first let me say i totally agree everyone has their own style to trade and rightly so,i was'nt bad mouthing any trader in here. Thats why i was very clear on saying" In My Opinion " I stand very firm on my stance that politicians are liars and that the current fundies are bullshit. i never once said that fundie traders were bad or did'nt know what they are doing, fundies are more for a macro sense of trading and from what ive seen in here so far there are'nt a whole lot of investors. So for intra day and swing traders in the current market with the currency wars in full swing they dont stop the engine from rolling along. But when im in here and see people posting "the news was bad ,why is it going up" I felt that an easy explaination of why was needed.

If you took that persoanlly then im sorry, its was'nt directed at you or anyone else, Thats also why i said "these comments are not directed at anyone in here" simply put..its my opinion. just like everyone else in here has there own opinion on the current situation. I did go long and short today cause the chart called for it. Not because it was my personal sentiment. And yes i made money both ways. And i hope everyone in here had similiar if not better success then me.

And sir if you wish to ban me because of the way you interpret my post then thats fine,but then you are breaking your own rules as an un biased spectator of the forum. i have private messages thanking me for my post , and agreeing with me from members who will remain nameless. When i post something its not to get attention or make people feel bad ,its to possibly set a light off over their head and give them something to think about. I want to wake people up as to what i think or at what i know is going on. Money does not move randomly through a chart it has a mission and the mission is to make money for the powers that be..hitting stops,cornering the market etc.etc. If you can get a glimpse into where these people would benefit the most then you have a little better edge for yourself. Thats all i was trying to say.You may not like the way i said it but if you remove the emotion protion of it you will see it plain as day. MotownPhill

It's a bet. Im long too. She's making higher highs, so don't ask follow the trend, right?

off the cliff of 1.4530 down to bottom 1.3130, 61.8 fibo corresponds to 1.4000, thats my target too..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_G-20_Cannes_summit

Hi MotownPhil,

My apologies if I gave you the wrong impression. I did not misunderstand you. I know you were not bashing other strategies and I took no offence to anything you wrote in your post whatsoever.

You made very valid points throughout your post and I agree with them all. When I was referring to others who claimed their strategies were the way to go and everyone else's was crap, I did not mean you. There have been a few people who posted such nonsense in this and other threads I have visited and I just wanted to reinforce to the readers of this thread there is no such thing as some universal trading strategy that everyone needs to master. Since you did write that "the fundies are bullshit", I wanted to make it clear to others that "Fundamental Analysis" as part of a trading strategy is not bullshit and anyone who suggested it would be in violation of the rules of this thread. I didn't mean to infer that you violated any of the rules because I know in what context you made that statement.

So don't worry. All is good. You never broke any rules and you will not be blocked.

Wishing you a great weekend and many green pips.

Cheers
PT

wikipedia?

reliable?

well ill give it a shot.

Great piptradder,Im glad i was'nt misunderstood, I have respect for everyone and there trading styles.Does'nt matter how ya get there as long as you get there.

I read it. It's accurate.

All the info in Wikipedia is community contributed and has a peer based self correcting system. If someone posts something that is wrong, within 24 or so hours (supposedly) enough contributing members will submit corrections. It's not perfect but it is certainly more up to date and accurate than Encyclopedia Brittanica

and that's exactly the kind of spirit I like to see promoted in this thread

id agree with mowton completely
thats with success and goals. with trading its another story.


Piptrapper: hey buma your position is losing 1000 pips.. you sure you want to hold?
Buma: yes, i will get there no matter how long it takes

Good night

How do you trade that chart, it hurts my eyes

Thanks PT for taking the time to dive deep into the fundies for us. I'm learning a lot

It's a pleasure PK. Have a great weekend.

PT,

The ebook by Raghee was particularly good. Thanks.

The defining characteristic of a master of any art is not that he knows a lot, or that he has a lot of secrete tricks. It is that he has mastered the basics.

This is not a theoretical argument. If you want somebody in pro sports you will discover that most of their time is spend practicing the basics. You can never be good enough at the simple things.

I recently came upon a really good suggestion. It was that even if you were trading live that you practiced on a separate demo account.

Good point. In sports there's a saying: “They showed me ways to lose I never knew existed.”


Thanks for the thread PipTrapper.

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...ferent-stories

Good Night All posters

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...-trigger-rally

Food For Thought

True aaron. You won't see football players like Kaka, or messi, or ronaldo going around practing skills the most, they practice their occasional, dribbling, passing, and shooting.

rest is style