Nb 10.0 trend trading system

This will be the next edition to 10.0 it will be the 10.1 update. Using S/R (support and resistance) points to reenter the trend from any TF. If price does not break S/R you will not be in the trade, if it does you have reentered the trend. Here is a pic of a live trade I did with the gbp/nzd +74. Using the ATF MA indicator which allows me to put the Daily MAs on a 15M chart (blue and red lines) and then using the S/R indicator showing just 4H and Daily S/R lines. I can scalp or trade any TF. You will have SL placements (previous S/R lines), Profit targets (old S/R lines), and a definition of a break out (not defined in previous 10.0 booklets)

The rules will be very simple I think, blue is below red showing DT, price is between two S/R lines put pending order below/above next S/R lines. When trade enters, set your TP and SL and let it ride. If price reverses off of a S/R line then you are not in. Seems simple enough.

A new definition of a breakout trade will be as follows. If price BO beyond all 4 major lines. 2 S/R lines and 2MA and 8 MA go for the kill and let the trade ride. See the shaded areas below. My gbp/nzd trade qualifies for this kind of trade. I will take half profit at the first S/R line, put my SL into profit and let the rest ride. See what happens. Again I use live trades for examples when I can so you can see what it is like in real time. A sink or swim approach.

Anyway Squalou that is what I am working on and what the new indicator will be for.

I am hoping with this system we wont have to worry about the crappy fundamentals so much. Just read the chart and go and let the fundamentals do whatever they want. LOL

Dear bob,

the 10.1 update, Using S/R points to reenter the trend from any TF seems VERY GOOD!

could you brief the S&R indicator that it will how to calculate support and resistance line?

I have used S/R before in trading but with ATF MA it seems to give better reads. The S/R one I use uses Fractal indicator as its foundation for determining S/R. That means the High/Low is used. There are others which use open, close of a candle. Another kind would be pivot points like they use in the stock marktes. I am sure there are other kinds but I like the Fractal high/low the best. If you like another kind I am sure you can adjust it to my system.

Bob,

I started with a breakout system and while they can make money, they have 4 major flaws.

First, you enter at a "bad price". The price has to move 30 pips (or whatever) before being triggered. And as you say things that go up tend to come back down.

Second, exits are problematic. The three basic strategies are some form adjustable TP/SL, a time based exit or a TP/SL fixed at entry. They all have problems.

Third, there are two patterns that will cause you to lose money: a) the so called bull/bear trap and b) is the switchback which is twice as bad..

Fourth, breakouts perform better for some market conditions and some currency pairs than others.

Not to say they don't work, but like all other systems they come equipped with built in flaws.

Of course I have never been able to get a BO system to work that well. I am hoping with 10.0 reads it will increase your chances though. The problem with the BEAGLE team is they have no stats or past performance to view and study, just a lot of hot air. Again, the problem with trend trading is you never know it is going to continue, you dont know when someone will interfere (SNB, BOJ, BOE, etc.) Inside out trading has always driven me nuts while I have had much more success trading outside in. Add a recovery method and it ends up being profitable. The one thing I am seeing and it took MTF MAs to see it, is price will break one way or the other almost every day. 10.0 hopefully will give you a good guess or a better chance at which way it will go. I need a week or two of trading it to get a feel for it though. The first problem I faced is the broker sent price across the line to pick up the trade (pending order) (you learn these things trading pennies rather than demo trading) and then it reverses back against you. Funny how price magically went exactly 10 pips below the line to get you in and immediately headed for the SL. LOL. 5 digit spread widening is a wonderful thing. I will need more data but maybe pending orders will not be the way to do it. I think the Beagle team manual trades to get around that issue. I never once saw them post exactly how they entered or exited. They were too busy name calling and posting pictures to get to any specifics.

The bottom line is entering back into the trend is always a tricky thing. Very few traders master that and even fewer are consistently profitable over the long haul doing it. So yes I agree with what you said, it is tricky.

Backtesting works...somewhat. Same problem... it tells you what was, not what will be. But I promise you that it will work much better on some pairs than others and in some time frames and not others.. And in a heavily trending market you make a lot of cash.

And mathematical models the same. You can only model what has happened, not what will. Gambling theory is also useful... but when you are playing forex, the underlying assumption that you are dealing with a finite set of possibilities which can be determined with absolute certainty is false. The deck may have 8 aces or no aces, depending upon the day.

I spend a lot of time in the news room because I think fundamental does play a key role. Not fundamental as in this news release and that news release. But the big stuff, like QE, or understanding the basic monetary strategy of a government, or how inflation works.

I am also spending a lot of time trying to understand the psychology of the market. Underneath all technical systems is some sort of basic truth about human nature.

My guess about Johnny's system is that there is an element of intuition (call it experience if you like) that he uses. Otherwise he would not need to place live trades.

Anyway, good luck with it. It is a beautiful crisp autumn day in Beijing, but winter is about one week away. Time to go someplace warm.

any idea when this will be out?

I will post a test version this weekend while the custom made indicators are being done. I want some people to try it out and let us know how they do. The difference here is the new type of screen using the ATF MA with S/R lines. Once we understand how it works then the EA guys will try to come up with something. Right now I dont know how to code an ATF MA so I can only visually back test it. Aaron maybe right, it will work best on certain pairs. My suspicion is it will work best on the volatile pairs (good news) like my range trading EA only works well on non-volatile pairs. CHF has driven me nuts over the years with their long drawn out trends at times but with this it maybe perfect. (GBP/CHF my enemy will I ever tame you).

This is the 10.1 update practice version. Put the templates in the template folder and the 3 indicators into the indicators folder. There are not EAs for this at this time.

The rules are very simple, you are looking to reenter the trend off of high/low resistance and support lines. What has made these much easier to see is the ATF MA indicator. This draws the lines from the daily onto the lower time frames. However, the lines now are straight across on the time frame and make nice looking S/R lines and easy reads. I put the envelopes in order to be read. A,B,C. The A folder shows how each time frame should look, the B folder shows the BO trade on the daily chart. The C folder shows how to use S/R lines to trade on lower time frames. I used the 15M but you could any other TF if you wished. The 4H Daily S/R indicator is the old one. I havent had time to put the new one in yet. I want to wait until it is done so I can test it. I wrote all the instructions right on the charts so there are no booklets.

Remember this is just a practice so we can get used to trading this way. I want to compare using this method to reenter the trend versus the MA method or reentering the trend and see which works better. If I get time I may post some trades before Monday. I will do 1 penny live trades just to see how it works.

I now suspect that this system will work best with the volatile pairs. Range trading will work best with low volatile pairs. CT trading will work with the medium volitile pairs. Just my best guess for now. Have fun getting back into the trend.

Here is a pic of a USD trade I will try to take sometime Monday. Look at the Daily first and then see this on the 15M posted below. If it breaks all 4 lines then it could run for several days.

I saw this NZD/USD BO trade and wondered if I could get back in. I found an old 4H and Daily S/R lines from the past and marked them in black. I may want to reenter the trend at that point if price breaks above those lines. This gives you an idea of what I would like to do at some point in the future.

the gbp/jpy shows no S/R lines nearby so I have no reason to trade it at this time.

gbp chf is showing an enter now and this would be a good daily BO trade or you could play it to the 4H S line you see on the screen of the 1H chart. Take your profit there if it goes and then look to BO again at that 4H line.

Just some ideas as I understand them for now

[quote=nanningbob;5044054]This is the 10.1 update practice version.

Thanks - Folder 10.1 / C10.1 15 M Sells & Buys > File b. 10.15m sell should say "1. BLUE IS BELOW RED ... "and not "1. RED IS BELOW BLUE ..."

an amateur user's dream list of template information:
A. Indicator wording
a) D1 volatility (classes in different colours)
b) Pips of distance between 1s, 2s and 3s deviation of BB for L2 and higher trades
B. Manual-Trading: Enter-Signals (vertical Line for each trade type based on RWB (how do they fit into the 10.1 system?) and new criteria.
C. phover's adapted dashboard
I feel very honoured to find myself with this group of stimulating, skilled and sharing people and I hope you forgive my daydreaming.

[quote=Michael PB;5044227] Glad you understand and were paying attention. I just get tired sometimes and make mistakes.