EurAnalysis

same here, but market reall slow for now ofc.

I missed it, but on September 15 the monthly, weekly and daily trendlines met on 1.40.

Monthly chart

This is what it looks like on the four hour chart

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44894682

If your a bear, more reason to load up your guns. I think that is what we are seeing in the price action tonight, and with Asia being lower, it should lead US equities there as well after Europe. US futures off pretty good, even with positive Google behind us.

China is off to a bad start today. A couple of days ago the equity market hit the low from last year. The best it could do was to jump by 3%. It is down 1% in the morning action. It really looks like the double bottom that people were hoping for is going to be a dead cat bounce followed by a break to the bottom. Chinese stocks are down over 20% for 2011, and almost 30% from their high less than a year ago.

This week has not been kind to me and many of us with price action going completely againt the sentiment that many of us share. With the daily bombardment of bad press it's way too easy to get caught up in the emotion and get whiplashed. I've gotten so wrapped up in the news overload lately it's costing me lot of money because I've been caught up in my sentiment and lost my objectivity. I'm a technical trader that trades what the chart tells me and keep an eye on the macro picture to understand the market and what is going on.

Reading some of what, IIRC, Aaron posted earlier about bank price projections, I had to step back today and really take a look at my charts and figure out what I was doing wrong and get my phycology in check and see if I could look into what the banks are seeing with their projections of 1.35 - 1.50 etc. We all know good and well that our pockets ain't deep enough to fight against a bank or a country.

I use multiple timeframe analysis for position, swing, intraday and scalping. I primarily trade intraday and like to swing trade and scalp. Not big on position trading, I simply don't have the patience for that.

Position Trading - I would look at the Monthly to identify trend, Weekly to identify supply and demand levels, daily to identify entry and the 240 minute to pinpoint precise entry to lower my risk.

Swing Trading - I look at the Weekly to identify trend, Daily to identify supply and demand levels, 240 minute to identify entry and the 60 minute to pinpoint precise entry to lower my risk.

Intraday Trading - I look at the 240 minute to identify trend, 60 minute to identify supply and demand levels, 15 minute to identify entry and the 5 minute to pinpoint precise entry to lower my risk.

Scalping - I look at the 60 minute to identify trend, 15 minute to identify supply and demand levels, 5 minute to identify entry and the 2 minute to pinpoint precise entry to lower my risk.


Let's take a look at the charts used to identy find trend for each strategy. Let's see what price and the 50 sma is telling us and ignore the noise and hype about the Eurozone for a bit. The trend is your friend.

I used to have the 50 sma on the charts to identify trend and had gotten away from that and I don't know why. I put it back on. My 50 sma is set to show blue for up and purple for down. It opened my eyes back up. I've also drawn in the major supply and demand levels to watch out for.

Monthly to identify trend for position trading. 50 SMA still showing blue for up and is about flat saying range trade.


Weekly to identify trend for swing trading, just turning blue for up after a breif period of purple for down. The pair looks to mee like it has entered a larger range of sideways trading.


240 minute to identify the trend for intraday trading. Trend has recently changed to up trend.


60 minute to identify the trend for scalping. Trend is definatly up.


Yea my sentiment is bearish and but I need to pay attention to what the chart is telling me. Enjoy. I hope this helps someone clear their head and take a look both inside themselves and into their charts to see what it tells you.

I know what you mean, if you look at a picasso from an inch away you won't see a clear picture, just a bunch of colourful smears

Even if you trade on the 1m chart, you should have a look at the daily before you trade each day, and see whether we have closed past any important levels.

For me recently I have started using the levels that you see in this picture, as you can see they provide very accurate targets, turnarounds and checkpoints on the way up:



As you can see, from my point of view we have closed above the 1.3700 level, tested it and bounced. So, as far as I can see we are bullish until 1.3880 is rejected, or there is a close below 3700.

Real quality work, Pipkiller. Your charts and my charts say that we are in the land of the scalp. Rising trend lines meet falling tend lines. Rising supply meets falling supply. Probably could make money going either way, but I have a strong bear bias (medium term, not long term) and so am only going to scalp down.

I know I have submitted this chart, but now I circled price behavior around the daily trend line. As you see, for now, it is toeing the line.

Well said.

I agree with the 1.3880. It's pretty clear on my 240 chart that once she chews through the 1.38 that 1.3880 is the next place she'll bump her head.

. I have lots of ideas, and most of them are bad. Almost everything bad that has ever happened to me always originated from a dumb-ass idea of mine.

Thank you.

Hmmm. Looks like a bull flag. Have to wait and see what happens. Night all, gotta get a little shut eye before the wife gets me up in 4 hrs when she goes to work.

I'm planning to scalp or intraday trade London and be done and flat by NY lunch tomorrow.

I am my own worst enemy!

Good morning to y'all

I wrote down my ideas and "bias" in a docx. here's the fundamental information. I got some charts with technical analysis in the document as well:

*For some reason I cannot attach the document, anyways...

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Tomorrow important news:
G20 meetings – All day ------
7:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.1% Good
7:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.0% Good

Recent news:

“Revised EU Stress Test Would See 66 Banks Fail, Analysts Say” Bad
“EFSF's Regling says there is no risk of a downgrade for EFSF at moment” Good
“S&P Cuts Spain to AA-“ Bad
Almost forgot, no QE3 Bad

Short-term sentiment:
No-where, more likely to short.
Across the week, we have seen a beautiful (painful for most of us) gain in the EURUSD pair, as high as 450 pips, expect to see some profit taking, it’s Friday. As today we are having the G20 meetings, I think market could notice that we are still in a crisis, and that the problem is not solved yet (if will ever be)… I’m also having in mind that we certainly stopped getting lots of good expectations (new data) about the Euro Zone lately. So… perhaps a back-to-reality day is what we are going to see during the London session.
Mid-term sentiment:
No longer bullish
In my opinion, there’s no way the ECB can give the markets a larger fake hope based on something that we already know.
Long-term sentiment:
Bearish
It’s just a matter of time. If you’d like to read further analysis about the long-term fundamental sentiment, I suggest reading Piptrapper’s latest posts and analyses.

Pbh

Phb

Thanks for your excellent post. I used to do something similar, but now with you here, I can save myself the trouble. Thanks.

One point I would disagree with is that no QE is bad for the Euro (if you. Quite the opposite. US QE is very good for the Euro. In fact, what has happened to us over the last few days is that the US is practicing "stealth" QE by lending USD to European banks.

The mechanics go something like this: more QE=more USD=greater supply of USD with the same demand=price of USD down=price of Euro up.

The odds of a Euro sell off in the last 12 hours before close are probably about 70%. Usually something bad happens, but the underlying reason is that nobody really wants to hold the Euro over the weekend. And some sort of whiplash is also very common.

You will see both dynamics if you look at the 4H chart with a period separator and scroll back over the last couple of years.

despite all the bad news abt euro and yet the eur still edge higher,why?

They need it. Seriously. Euro banks need liquidity and they are doing that with USD loans. Some of these loans need to become Euros. So some serious buying pressure is going on.

Good job Piptrapper Junior!

Hey PT, you got kids in Peru?