EurAnalysis | Page 129 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #2,561
  • Oct 13, 2011 1:33pm Oct 13, 2011 1:33pm
Swingalong I feel that once euro starts to go down its going way down to 1.30 maybe 1.2960. Commodities ultimately started off this rally and they had a bit of a sell off today and that selling will continue which will quicken even more when usd begins to strenthen again. Equities held their own for today finishing the daily flat, not a good sign going into the weekend where no one will be holding risky assets this weekend especially seeing how over bought everything is. I'm short on silver from 33 short on euro from 1.3820 and will be shorting equity futures if we get a gap down. Silver is going down way down!
  • #2,562
  • Oct 13, 2011 1:44pm Oct 13, 2011 1:44pm
http://www.fitchratings.com/index_fitchratings.cfm

Fitch has been busy today. But....does it matter?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,563
  • Oct 13, 2011 1:50pm Oct 13, 2011 1:50pm
Seems lowering ratings is too common. I mean, if they were downgraded more than 3 levels, but one or two levels - than it is an expected event perhaps...

Maybe market priced in ratings lower by two degrees for most EZ connected institutions?

Either way, Euro negative news don't shake the market right now.

Well, I am going to sleep... good night.
  • #2,564
  • Edited 2:08pm Oct 13, 2011 1:52pm | Edited 2:08pm
Quoting RodMca
Swingalong I feel that once euro starts to go down its going way down to 1.30 maybe 1.2960. Commodities ultimately started off this rally and they had a bit of a sell off today and that selling will continue which will quicken even more when usd begins to strenthen again. Equities held their own for today finishing the daily flat, not a good sign going into the weekend where no one will be holding risky assets this weekend especially seeing how over bought everything is. I'm short on silver from 33 short on euro from 1.3820 and will be shorting...
I think that EUR/USD Daily chart hasn't completed the corrective up swing just yet. It might go up a bit, maybe only to 1.385-388 area.

But after that I also agree that the 3rd Elliot wave won't stop until at least 1.287, although the perfect price projection lies exactly at 1.25, where are also late 2008 and early 2009 lows.

I am also not sure if some major thing will happen tomorrow. Maybe we really need couple of days of consolidation, before something major might happen.

Good night to all of you!
  • #2,565
  • Oct 13, 2011 2:03pm Oct 13, 2011 2:03pm
I was also of the same opinion swingalong. I had called for 1.39 maybe 1.3930. But from todays commodity sell off i think a sell off in equities and euro will follow. I agree tomorrow may be a slow day i certainly dont see major buying unless something positive happens. For now i think the correction is over. 1.3830 provided the strongest resistance we've seen this week and I feel it will stay that way seeing as we havent retested it and have seen a pull back from 1.38 twice today. So i feel its under pressure and the down side prevails from here
  • #2,566
  • Oct 13, 2011 2:51pm Oct 13, 2011 2:51pm
This was posted by an anonymous user who commented on the current situation of EUR/USD. Maybe PipTrapper can have a look at it and offer us his view. Without further ado here the post:

Quote-

"Down? Not yet, and possibly no more this year.

It's funny how it tracks the S&P when it goes up, and ignores it when it goes down. Just like ignoring bad news and rallying on hopium. V-shape correction done, yesterday's breakpoint stamped, didn't manage to print a HH today but nevermind, London boys will take care of it tomorrow. Then - hooray to 1.39, maybe even 1.40 tomorrow, then skip the resistances above with a 200 pip gap on Monday open. Since Y2K, the only reason to sell the euro is to buy it back at a better price later. €UPHORIA forever, or as long as Germany holds.

There is only one weird thing with the recent rally - the turn on the dime below at 1.3145. I remember the day; it was rather quiet, no news, no hardcore level.. but the orderflow patterns changed like when a switch gets flipped - the dealers started to produce dips, partly very aggressive dips (consuming supply and luring sheeple shorts in), then pushed up with concentrated demand with even bigger aggression. I've told myself: "something has changed, where's the reason?". Then, ECB+NFP came (preceded by a duck'n'dive slingshot), then Merkozy-320pip-Monday (preceded by a duck'n'dive slingshot, too). Dealers doing their work at finest. A 700-pip short squeeze? Don't believe it.

What about a fundie trigger for further drop? Greek default? Ok, 300 pips down (oh yay!), but then 2000 up (hooray! it's out = it's over!!)

Any other trouble? x pips down, but finally 3x pips up because trouble produces promises, plans, plans to make plans and those plans and plans to make plans will be postponed endlessly and this all is naturally - BULLISH."

Quote-

Isn't he neglecting Spain, Portugal and Italy as well as the Euro's systemic flaws?
Do we have a deal?
  • #2,567
  • Oct 13, 2011 3:15pm Oct 13, 2011 3:15pm
Quoting Yojimbo
This was posted by an anonymous user who commented on the current situation of EUR/USD. Maybe PipTrapper can have a look at it and offer us his view. Without further ado here the post:

Quote-

"Down? Not yet, and possibly no more this year.

It's funny how it tracks the S&P when it goes up, and ignores it when it goes down. Just like ignoring bad news and rallying on hopium. V-shape correction done, yesterday's breakpoint stamped, didn't manage to print a HH today but nevermind, London boys will take care of it tomorrow. Then - hooray...
As long as Germany and France back the Euro it will move up and down. That is the #1 fundamental above all others. When it looks like they may back out then the bottom will fall out. Until then it is like any other currency. The problem with Spain, Portugal, Italy, and dont forget Ireland is they havent hit the news yet. So far it has all been focusing on Greece. After they default or they solve their problem LOL then they will go on to the next one.
  • #2,568
  • Oct 13, 2011 3:47pm Oct 13, 2011 3:47pm
S&P CUTS SPAIN TO AA-
  • #2,569
  • Oct 13, 2011 3:56pm Oct 13, 2011 3:56pm
Quoting Pbh
S&P CUTS SPAIN TO AA-
They probably will have to cut out the bull run this year lol.

Seriously, it will go down a little, the pair will come up a little and back down to a reasonable price, it's all part of the plan more or less.
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #2,570
  • Oct 13, 2011 4:15pm Oct 13, 2011 4:15pm
fun with fundies, the banks way of screwing with everyone's head at the same time.
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #2,571
  • Oct 13, 2011 4:19pm Oct 13, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting Blobik
Even when we broke the channel (which was resisting really strong) we eventually bounced back right into it..
that line was broken again lately with the downgrade. but the effect remains to be seen; recent knee-jerk downgrade-based sells have been followed by rallies.

i have another channel, expecting a test of its lower TL in asian or early european session; could confluence with recent support zone (blue).. if broken, minor demand zone below (green) but not worth the risk imo, except for a scalp. 3520 (more below) is an untested breakpoint that could provide some real support.

but i suppose the channel/blue zone will hold, tomorrow's upside should be limited to 3880-3940max (red). if bulls consolidate their forces, a push through the gray area should be no problem.

the really interesting zone (violet) seems to be out of reach tomorrow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.png Size: 35 KB
MarginTrader All Time Return: na
  • #2,572
  • Oct 13, 2011 4:44pm Oct 13, 2011 4:44pm
I dont quite understand why everyone is so gung-ho on selling the euro.Who really cares?? I make money up , I make money down, makes absolutley zero diffrence to me which way it goes.. Fundies are all crap, down grades are bullshit, Obama's, Trichette's promises all lies.. The massive current overall sentiment for the euro is up, All ya have to do is look at the price projections between the legs and the order flow and its obvious. Theres only one real way to trade in my opinion and that is price action and divergence. Price action first always and divergence second. The old saying that price never lies is the truest statment ive ever heard about trading. The sentiment...who cares?? prices dictates the sentiment.. Look for areas that the stops are hanging out and crush their dreams when you ride the coat tails of the big boys. You wanna short the euro and be a contrian trader??? then you better have deep pockets and alot of pepto in your medicine cabinet right now ,theres not enough evidence to prove to anyone that its gonna turn here yet. When its ready to turn ill be there bright eyed and bushy tailed to take the peoples money that are finally convinced its bullish. And by the way this is'nt a post directed at anyone at all its just my simple view point of the nature of trading. Always makes me laugh when i hear ..why is it going up,it has no reason to go up.. really ..let me let ya in on a little secret ..its going up to rob you..thats the facts plain and simple.. I spent many years wondering why its going up when it should'nt..i know why now..This game is about thinking out of the box at times and thinking right in line with the obvious at other times..Where is the real money right now for the big boys??? Is it up or is it down.. That what ya need to ask your self.. Is it better for them to turn price right here and pop all those stops and get paid off your hard earned money or is it better for them to continue to dump tons of money into the market to help you along??? I think the answer to that is obvious. They know where the money is at.. Its all these "contrian" traders betting its gonna turn right here for a new bottom...wrong again my friend.. hey try it out again maybe the 3rd time is the charm.. Its much better to play the game and wait till there is real evidence they are thru with there manipulation in a certain direction.. cause make no mistake its pure manipulation. Remeber you cant control how much a trade will make ya but you can always control how much ya lose.. Good luck to everyone that reads this and i hope everyone makes their goal in the long run. MotownPhill
  • #2,573
  • Oct 13, 2011 5:02pm Oct 13, 2011 5:02pm
PT

Have you thought about creating a subthread (or several) to preserve the posts you think are particularly important?

From time to time...several times a day... I see something that I think it really good and would like to be able to reference. Also, about once a day somebody shows up with a question and I think...you should really take a look at that article somebody posted a week or so ago. Also, there is advice on trading techniques, advice for beginners, technical systems, etc that are as relevant 3 years from now as they are now. Fundamental opinions have a shorter life span, but the key points remain valid for months and the underlying patterns remain valid for years.

Right now we are suffering from the "Momento" disease. While we have a record and short term memory, quality work that was written more than a week ago is lost. You are suffering from your own success. A half dozen pages are added each day.

For example, the day after you posted your explanation about the price spike caused by CB interference, I wanted to re-read your post. I knew better than to look for it here, so I went to the news room to find the link.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,574
  • Oct 13, 2011 5:04pm Oct 13, 2011 5:04pm
Quoting Hardpike
Thank you for this amazingly useful info Fxmindset.
I love your annalysis.

Kind regards
Yup, me too
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,575
  • Oct 13, 2011 5:10pm Oct 13, 2011 5:10pm
it looks like every slip, bad news is like a buying opprtunity for Euro, wth??
anyways, no bias, just buy
  • #2,576
  • Oct 13, 2011 5:17pm Oct 13, 2011 5:17pm
Quoting greg2514
I do not understand the euro, it should be going down. Were is there any positive news from Europe. France and Germany cannot even agree on how to recapitalize the banks. The stress test showed that 66 out of 90 banks would fail. They cant even say that the etsf fund would not get downgraded. The euro is so frustrating right now.
"Why did the price action move in this way with the news?" is the key question.

I find it far more useful to think about the correlation between price action and news, rather than making predictions on price action based on news just released to the public. There are key exceptions, but they are few and far between.

If price action is not doing what it "should" this is typically because of two reasons.

1. It is not news.
2. The market has gone too far in one direction and needs to correct.

"It is not news" is complex. For example yet another article explaining why Greece is in trouble will not move price. Or outcomes of certain events are already baked into the price before they actually happen. Or the "big boys" use other news services or have inside knowledge that we don't.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,577
  • Oct 13, 2011 5:21pm Oct 13, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting The Fool
I make predictions about where I think the rate will move: the shorter the horizon, the more I care about those numbers. Since I am a scalper mostly, predictions for anything over a day are pretty much academic.

re: speculation - spot fx is almost all speculation. I have seen various experts say anywhere from 60% to 99% (latter case Ashraf Laidi, who I think is very very sharp)

in futures, its the same. Spot oil? probably almost no oil is delivered from spot transactions, statistically speaking. If you are a big refinery you are negotiating...
Very useful, many thanks.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,578
  • Oct 13, 2011 5:24pm Oct 13, 2011 5:24pm
Thanks for the reply, I just find it illogical that the euro is 1.38 compared to the usd. There is a lot more upside for the usd then the euro.
  • #2,579
  • Oct 13, 2011 5:26pm Oct 13, 2011 5:26pm
Quoting The Fool
i tend to agree. order flow there on the charts: big buy orders make the 10-20 pip jumps, then no comparable counter and theres a consolidation range beyond that, rinse/repeat. At times theres a steady period (ie, 20 minutes, an hour, whatever) between these big moves...

red day in stocks, except the NAZ, oil down, bonds flat to red, but the e/u up 100+ pips off its low in NY - can you say decoupled?

the rate moves where the biggest orders move it
Is there a practical way to use this?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,580
  • Oct 13, 2011 5:28pm Oct 13, 2011 5:28pm
Quoting AaronWard
Yup, me too
Thanks Bro
Gonna Leave Soon untill NY Open Tonight
Am Gonna Trade MM Game now for short
0,5% For 13785 SL 13835
1% For 13835 SL 13895
1,5% For 13830 SL 13895

Lets see and hope you are doing well also
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Daily White Version.png Size: 37 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
11 traders viewing now