EurAnalysis

I see a Doji on a daily chart staring back at me.. and it's right at the top of a supply level where price fell hard and fast last time.

It's a beautiful night here in the East coast, but I won't probably be looking at the same way at the markets today.

Let's have a quick look at some recent breaking news:

"S&P downgrades Spain's banking sector"
*More than expected

"EFSF plan would insure portion of sovereign bonds - Allianz"
*ok...

"Slovak parliament voted NO on EFSF again"
*Here's one comment by cichy: No problem. We'll do it Ireland style. We'll make vote after vote untill spirit is broken and parliament say ye

"Obama's jobs bill officially defeated in Senate"
*Obama's jobs bill officially defeated in Senate; Final vote is 50-49 - NBC News... I expected.

What are our expectations now?

The most important upcoming news is the "FOMC minutes"
*What happened last time?
** Henry Liu 1

The big surprise from the FOMC Statement was that there were no additional surprise liquidity ”measures/stimuli” announced. Sure, we got the 400 Billion on “Operation Twist”, but consider how widely it was publicized beforehand, it did very little to the overall market. At the end of the day, what market chose to focus on was the “significant downside risk…” phrase (Actually, this is the exact phrase from the FED: "Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated") and the overall tone of the Feds, here’s what I gathered:

 

1. The use of the word “Significant” added a sense of seriousness in the overall risk to the economy. Many analysts have elevated their expectations for a double-dip recession in the U.S. as results… This is USD Positive.
2. Ironically, the fact that no QE3 was announced nor any additional measures aside from Operation Twist, was in itself a positive message for the USD as the Federal Reserve did not see the need to introduce additional measures… This is USD Positive.
3. The 3 dissenters – Fisher, Kocherlakota, and Plosser once again voted against further policy accommodation. This adds more fuel to the idea that within the FOMC there are members who feel current situation is temporary. This is USD Positive.
4. The “exceptional low levels… through mid 2013″ phrase remained unchanged, which confirmed Fed’s commitments to maintain its easing policy. This is USD Negative (Actually, this is USD positive, because it helped with the risk aversion sentiment).

What should we expect this time?

Bernanke recently stated that the economy is close to faltering and that the FED is ready to act... There should be a possibilty for a QE3.

On the other hand, as the FED didn't do anything else than what was already expected last time, we could see a continuation of downward pressure.

What do you think about it?

In my opinion, we could see something alike to what happened yesterday. And by alike I mean to trade in a range of 100 pips.

Yesterday we saw a spike up for 40 pips, then a spike down for 60 pips, before US open when market spiked up again (there's a chart below).

For today, I will give my opinion and show some charts before the London session starts (around 02:00 am EST)


I'd like to see some opinions coming around.

Pbh

1 http://www.henryliuforex.com/5077/forex-trading-analysis-for-us-fomc-minutes-101211/
2 EDIT: I missed the chart, will post it in a second

Maybe but still not valid yet,let see if 137 can be hold or not


Trade safe mate

Here we go

yeah, dabbling with a microlot to start, thanks
you as well

zero bias my friend!
I am about +200 pips today

hi guys, i was missing due to sleep lol, and i just would like to show the post-effect of the eur/jpy short, ntrprz was very happy about taking the trade with me. price tag shows entry,

and second chart is a currently taken short on euro/dollar. swing high is there, its a wave of correction pattern, and psych level held not so badly.

welcome back, and i was gone working out..
if it breaks down 3605, i might have to close my longs.. i sure hope not..

i closed my 3 pip win.Yay!

low liquidity lots of tricks played here, not as safe.

just using psycho levels. long from 3590 , nicely rising...
hop on the train

i noticed that resistance, now set a trailing stop and good luck

i avoid trading in low liquid sessions, but through observations, asian sessions buy the euro for easy gains on their end.

Copy from Buma's thread:

I'm expecting a fake reversal at 02:00 EST. Might work out better with GBPUSD and GBPJPY because these are the pairs that are most sensible to the market cycle.

folks for some reason i cant get the volume right in the price chart.
i right click and select it but its not helping. when i open a new chart it works

anybody has any idea??

buma - how/why is it fake rise in euro?

What happens? Isn't it shown? Try rightclick on the chart, select properties an see what color the volumes are supposed to be displayed in.

that easy, when you know how to, eh?
thank you my friend!

Like anything, like trading, easy when you know how to

I am expect this bullish might be continues again..If the blue lines break am gonna long,Lets see

thanks mate. by any chance do you also know how to stop these emails from FF about our thread here.. i went to profile, a couple of times, but just dont know how to stop emails..

Good euro morning everyone.

It's looking a bit bullish right now and I see we're back up in the supply area.

I think the bears are in hibernation and we're going to get a good fight at 1.3700 so buckle up your seat belts.

We all know where the fundamentals are but it seems the market is moving on some hope that Merkel's statements this morning have some meat and potatoes in them.

I'm staying out though until I see a clear breakout to either side.

Cheers
PT

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