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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #1,801
  • Oct 11, 2011 4:38am Oct 11, 2011 4:38am
Quoting bumapatria
expecting bounce now.
yup, I turned long buddy
  • #1,802
  • Oct 11, 2011 4:40am Oct 11, 2011 4:40am
Why is EURCHF taking off? Are the Swiss central bankers at work again? It is being supportive of the Euro all the way on this down move.
  • #1,803
  • Edited 5:55am Oct 11, 2011 4:43am | Edited 5:55am
Today launches official earnings season for the next 2 to 3 weeks.
This is all fundamental news that could help or hurt the equity markets which have a correlation to risk currencies such as the euro.

During earnings season, publicly traded corporations will report their Q3 earnings and give guidance for Q4 expectations.

So the effect will be based on two things:
1. Did they meet the guidance that that gave for Q3
2. Will they be optimistic or pessimistic for Q4

I do not have direct access to a calendar for these reports but I listen to CNBC constantly for the announcements. (perhaps someone else on here knows where there is a reliable calendar that only contains the major companies)
Here's one --> http://www.rttnews.com/Earnings/EarningsCalendar.aspx

So far, Alcoa (The Aluminium giant) reported Q3 earnings less than forecast and are lowering their forecast for Q4.
EDIT: Sorry that was not the official Alcoa report. Apparently it was the analysts' expectations. Oops

Other big names should report this week also.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,804
  • Oct 11, 2011 4:45am Oct 11, 2011 4:45am
Quoting drtorque
yup, I turned long buddy
take ur profits at 3620 max.

EDIT: sorry mate, u shouldve took profits at a nearer level. 3608. fibonacci 61.8% expansion. People will look to sell there, and it has touched it by the pip. i hope u closed there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sorry mate.gif Size: 82 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #1,805
  • Oct 11, 2011 4:52am Oct 11, 2011 4:52am
Quoting bumapatria
take ur profits at 3620 max.

EDIT: sorry mate, u shouldve took profits at a nearer level. 3608. fibonacci 61.8% expansion. People will look to sell there, and it has touched it by the pip. i hope u closed there.
nice call! I think Ill keep watching w/a tight stop.
reverse to short if needed , we'll see.
  • #1,806
  • Oct 11, 2011 4:52am Oct 11, 2011 4:52am
German banks reject higher Greek write-down

"The head of Germany's banking federation said today that banks should first take a 21% loss on Greek debt already agreed before further measures are discussed to ease the euro zone crisis.
Banks agreed in July to accept a 21% "haircut" on the debt of crisis-wracked Greece but markets already consider this insufficient and speculation has grown that a write-down of as much as 60% is required."
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,807
  • Oct 11, 2011 4:53am Oct 11, 2011 4:53am
Quoting drtorque
nice call! I think Ill keep watching w/a tight stop.
reverse to short if needed , we'll see.
remember... no bias 50/50

when you are in a buy trade, you will have a natural tendency to have a buy bias. You know that is true otherwise you would not have entered the trade
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,808
  • Oct 11, 2011 4:57am Oct 11, 2011 4:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
remember... no bias 50/50

when you are in a buy trade, you will have a natural tendency to have a buy bias. You know that is true otherwise you would not have entered the trade
exactly PT! thanks for the warning.
but my bias is actually for euro to fall.. technically ifelt the other way and decided to switch to long..

KILL THAT BIAS
  • #1,809
  • Oct 11, 2011 4:57am Oct 11, 2011 4:57am
I dont really talk of bias.
its still controversial for me.

I see opportunity, i see the underlying factors, the macro-view, micro-view.s

i trade.

BUT HOWEVER for the sake of it i have a bb...bbbe....bearish bias.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #1,810
  • Oct 11, 2011 4:57am Oct 11, 2011 4:57am
EURCHF still off to the races supporting the Euro as CHF off against all currencies. It is acting as a big part of the support for the Euro as everything else on the planet says south and risk on.
  • #1,811
  • Oct 11, 2011 5:00am Oct 11, 2011 5:00am
SNB intervening ???

.
Attached Images
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,812
  • Oct 11, 2011 5:01am Oct 11, 2011 5:01am
Quoting PipTrapper
Today launches official earnings season for the next 2 to 3 weeks.
This is all fundamental news that could help or hurt the equity markets which have a correlation to risk currencies such as the euro.

During earnings season, publicly traded corporations will report their Q3 earnings and give guidance for Q4 expectations.

So the effect will be based on two things:
1. Did they meet the guidance that that gave for Q3
2. Will they be optimistic or pessimistic for Q4

I do not have direct access to a calendar for these reports but I listen to CNBC...
Unless you have great sources, and you might , AA reports tonight after the bell. Expectations are for a miss and almost every analyst has lowered earnings calls over the past week or two, and expectations are for weak guideance.
  • #1,813
  • Oct 11, 2011 5:02am Oct 11, 2011 5:02am
Quoting PipTrapper
SNB intervening ???

.
No, i doubt it.
its a panic buy in my opinion.

a group of traders bought probs making 20 pip move, making everyone esle buy, and stop losses hit.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #1,814
  • Oct 11, 2011 5:02am Oct 11, 2011 5:02am
Quoting PipTrapper
SNB intervening ???

.
Nope. I just closed my CHF short, and market knows how to make me nervous.
  • #1,815
  • Oct 11, 2011 5:04am Oct 11, 2011 5:04am
feckin buying activity. my dow short is SL caught. + 4 points.

@torque, ur profit shouldve been caught right?
right on the meat
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #1,816
  • Oct 11, 2011 5:04am Oct 11, 2011 5:04am
Quoting bumapatria
No, i doubt it.
its a panic buy in my opinion.

a group of traders bought probs making 20 pip move, making everyone esle buy, and stop losses hit.

If you are right, then this short term pop in EURCHF will run out and the Euro can tank as it should with the news out today.
  • #1,817
  • Oct 11, 2011 5:07am Oct 11, 2011 5:07am
Quoting drtorque
exactly PT! thanks for the warning.
but my bias is actually for euro to fall.. technically ifelt the other way and decided to switch to long..

KILL THAT BIAS
yep trying to ignore one's bias can be challenging... I got a signal from the 5m candles and went long at 3583. I moved my sl to 3593 and got stopped out :-(
  • #1,818
  • Oct 11, 2011 5:08am Oct 11, 2011 5:08am
folks, anybody knows how to see the volume in the price window.
when I open the volume indicator it takes up too much space.
and i tried the right click on chart, pick volume, didnt work. for some pairs its there, for euro cant get it..

I know its not real volume, but tick change, its ok..
  • #1,819
  • Oct 11, 2011 5:08am Oct 11, 2011 5:08am
placed a small sell limit at 38.2 fib retrace from move of .3672 down at .3613 got taken lets see. SL at .3655
  • #1,820
  • Oct 11, 2011 5:09am Oct 11, 2011 5:09am
Yes, bias is the bad thing, makes you keep making unsuccessfull trades in wrong moments, and when the right moment happens, you blame your bias and either not enter or enter and leave on small bounce that normally you would just ignore, but you start to think "oh no, its my bias again!"
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