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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #1,581
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  • Oct 10, 2011 12:24pm Oct 10, 2011 12:24pm
Yes I have seen it going down but never up (I know it has happened though). And I who thought that bank holidays should be calm

Quoting PipTrapper
I saw it a few times. 300 pip move Check 13 January 2011. There are many before that.
Also it has happened worse on the downside thrashing through support like it didn't exist.
  • #1,582
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  • Oct 10, 2011 12:33pm Oct 10, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting RodMca
Well I certainly hope for my equities sake that this is a short lived rally. Remember Monday of last week saw the dow trade in a 400 point range. A rally 45 minutes before the closing bell it went from being down over 2% to being up over 2%. No to scenarios are the same but i wouldnt be surprised if something like the opposite of that were to happen today or maybe tomorrow. We're coming under resistance at 1.37 eur/usd and 1185 on the s&p ,the previous turning point when we saw an equity sell off after a day of rallying. Ill only be worried if we...
Rod,
I've been in your situation before and I learned that hope is not the solution. Just like hope is not the solution for Europe's debt crisis.
What I have learned to do is recover or mitigate the loss. I believe I have explained it to you in a pm not too long ago. Be prepared for it in case you have to implement a recovery plan. Don't leave it till the last minute because your emotions will have a higher risk of clouding your judgement. Do the calculations now and set up the plan. If...Then
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,583
  • Quote
  • Oct 10, 2011 12:37pm Oct 10, 2011 12:37pm
Quoting TheSwede
Yes I have seen it going down but never up (I know it has happened though). And I who thought that bank holidays should be calm
You're not the only one. We live and learn.

However, if you think about it, it was "calm". there was no panic. Traders and investors don't buy when they panic. They buy when they are calm. They only sell when they panic.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,584
  • Quote
  • Oct 10, 2011 12:40pm Oct 10, 2011 12:40pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Rod,
I've been in your situation before and I learned that hope is not the solution. Just like hope is not the solution for Europe's debt crisis.
What I have learned to do is recover or mitigate the loss. I believe I have explained it to you in a pm not too long ago. Be prepared for it in case you have to implement a recovery plan. Don't leave it till the last minute because your emotions will have a higher risk of clouding your judgement. Do the calculations now and set up the plan. If...Then
Cheers
PT
Don't worry PT i took that advice you gave me before and hedged me sell on s&p futures which leaves with a slight loss but it would a major one if i did not hedge so thankfully i took your advice on board and am effectively playing the market from bothe sides its risky I know but then again I feel the overall sentiment remains bearish this is simply an overdue correction or like you said this morning a bull trap. I'm cautiously awaiting a turn around and one I'm convinced we've seen one ill remove my buy take profits from that and let the bears roam freely!
  • #1,585
  • Quote
  • Oct 10, 2011 12:42pm Oct 10, 2011 12:42pm
technically this was a retracement with low volume on a holiday
and the figures above 3700 were not even touched yet

my scenario: eu can drop pip by pip the next two weeks back to 3150
and
only if price stayes above 3700 clearly we could consider a trendchange
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #1,586
  • Quote
  • Oct 10, 2011 12:50pm Oct 10, 2011 12:50pm
Interesting day. As I may always say, I would normally not trade in days like these. But as fundamentals concern, there should not be more momentum pushing the pair higher. That's why I decided to take a suicide short.

Everyone in this thread knows what I mean by false hope. And that's what we're seeing today. I checked some fibs on the 4H chart, and it looks like a pin bar in the 1H (This is for you PT ). The chart below is self-explaining.

However, I'm not saying this is going to be a switch (right now) in the mid-term sentiment that's currently bullish. I think we need a little more scandal to see the bears coming back with strenght.

That's my view for the short-term, will come back later with more opinions

Pbh
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  • #1,587
  • Quote
  • Oct 10, 2011 12:50pm Oct 10, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting AaronWard
Anybody that pulls out the daily chart will quickly see that a 50% retracement will put the euro above 1.38. And a 61.8 puts the Euro at just about 1.40.
Was looking at that this morning on the weekly charts. She's right at the 38.2 right now.


Most of the "good news" I'm seeing is nothing but hope and talk of making a plan, not having anything actually done anything but jawbone. So as usual a rally on hope in thin holiday trading that could easily get stuffed really quickly.

Looking at the daily, she looks like she's also forming a nice down channel that she's about to hit her head on which is also near the nice round number of 1.3700. She's also at a level that has historically been a sticky spot of support and resistance. If the channel holds and price reverses, it could be a nice run down close to the pivot low targeting that huge round number of 1.3 or lower close to 1.29. Could be setting up for a really nice 500+ pip swing trade.
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Drilling down into the 60 minute. she's right at the top of a supply level that has been hit a few times and has actually pierced it which isn't good. CCI on 60 minute shows it's making lower highs as price is making higher highs telling me she doesn't have any momentum behind this push all the while riding the upper #2 standard deviation of the bollenger bands.
The levels I have marked off at 1.3410. 1.3287 and 1.3191 are levels I'd consider as targets if putting on more than one piece.
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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #1,588
  • Quote
  • Oct 10, 2011 12:50pm Oct 10, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting Pbh
OK, I just woke up and read this post from PT.

Here's the problem: Fundamental trading is the perfect (let me say it again), PERFECT strategy. The problem is in our minds, as I said in an earlier post, we get so focused in what's happening and what we'd like to happen, that we forget what is likely to happen (in the short-mid term) and what the market is expecting to happen.

I am happy to say, PT, that we found the bottom of this channel at 1.3150, anyone can go look at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post5007763...
Yes Pbh, fundamentals are awesome!!! .
Today was not about fundamentals.
Today (and last week) was mostly about technicals.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,589
  • Quote
  • Oct 10, 2011 12:54pm Oct 10, 2011 12:54pm
Quoting PipKiller
Was looking at that this morning on the weekly charts. She's right at the 38.2 right now.


Most of the "good news" I'm seeing is nothing but hope and talk of making a plan, not having anything actually done anything but jawbone. So as usual a rally on hope in thin holiday trading that could easily get stuffed really quickly.

Looking at the daily, she looks like she's also forming a nice down channel that she's about to hit her head on which is also near the nice round number of 1.3700. She's also at a level that has historically...
Excellent analysis PipKiller. You're normally quite silent but when you come out, you kill
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,590
  • Quote
  • Oct 10, 2011 12:56pm Oct 10, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting walb99
technically this was a retracement with low volume on a holiday
and the figures above 3700 were not even touched yet

my scenario: eu can drop pip by pip the next two weeks back to 3150
and
only if price stayes above 3700 clearly we could consider a trendchange
Thar's a very likely scenario.
It certainly matches PipKiller's projection.
Let's see how today ends.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,591
  • Quote
  • Oct 10, 2011 12:58pm Oct 10, 2011 12:58pm
Quoting Pbh
Interesting day. As I may always say, I would normally not trade in days like these. But as fundamentals concern, there should not be more momentum pushing the pair higher. That's why I decided to take a suicide short.

Everyone in this thread knows what I mean by false hope. And that's what we're seeing today. I checked some fibs on the 4H chart, and it looks like a pin bar in the 1H (This is for you PT ). The chart below is self-explaining.

However, I'm not saying this is going to be a switch (right now) in the mid-term sentiment that's...
Nice one Pbh.
It's a bit too early for me to jump in but I know you're capable of eliminating the risk once it moves a bit in your favor. So go get them pips.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Way too funny

Berlusconi Blames Stock Market Volatility On Cocaine Abuse By Traders

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
I want to open a new account with low thread, low commission and minimum lot size. Not to mention reliable also ............i am already trading but my broker has increased minimum lot size to 0.3 and it is difficult for me to trade in cotton and gold with 0.3 lot size......so any suggestions.
Quoting PipTrapper
Way too funny

Berlusconi Blames Stock Market Volatility On Cocaine Abuse By Traders

.
Mer-kozy wave the magic wand. When does the spell wear off?

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
I will now wait for a clear reversal signal and a sign that this false perception of a solution has passed and I will place my fresh shorts to profit on the downtrend once more.... and that time will come.

No I am not married to my bias... I am committed to the facts of the situation and I do not trade against the fundamentals

It is on days like this that I realize how those who just trade Price action on the charts without regard to the fundamentals are so much better off in some regards. However, my trading style is more macro than that and...
dear PT,
you remember Soros and his gold trade... "@$800, I think its a bubble but Im gonna buy it. next year @$1600 dump it all."

we have to get there.
Quoting Harpe Eagle
I want to open a new account with low thread, low commission and minimum lot size. Not to mention reliable also ............i am already trading but my broker has increased minimum lot size to 0.3 and it is difficult for me to trade in cotton and gold with 0.3 lot size......so any suggestions.
Have you looked at ibfx australia?

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting drtorque
dear PT,
you remember Soros and his gold trade... "@$800, I think its a bubble but Im gonna buy it. next year @$1600 dump it all."

we have to get there.
At least wait for price action to tell you to buy. Right now it would be buying at the top.

Pbh
BTW, 3685, shorted and it worked, still cant believe it..

my biggest mistake was after the first short @3475,
I brought 2 chicks home and was chatting. checked the charts, there was something wrong, but being a cowboy w/chix, dont worry its gonna go my way... what an idiot
Quoting drtorque
dear PT,
you remember Soros and his gold trade... "@$800, I think its a bubble but Im gonna buy it. next year @$1600 dump it all."

we have to get there.
Yes bring on the bubble. I'll gladly ride the burst all the way down.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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