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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #1,561
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:39am Oct 10, 2011 10:39am
Today is almost identical to what we saw about 12 days ago, equities seemed topless with all technicals hitting the roof and not moving down at all. Huge buying in the euro and all technicals in eur/usd hiting the roof as well.. Then what do we see an hour before the American close, a huge red line formed on our screen. I feel that this is going to be a similar set up. It may not occur today but it is coming and its days like today im glad i hedge my shorts which I will continue to hole but when things look to turn my hedges will be turned in to sells and enjoy the site of bears ruling the roost!
  • #1,562
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:43am Oct 10, 2011 10:43am
Quoting rallyes
the same source.

I am also in short
These analysis are only based on RSI. There is not other rationale behind them.
Only the support and resistance are valid mostly for intraday purposes.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,563
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:44am Oct 10, 2011 10:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
.
UPDATE: New Rule added 10 October 2011

4. In the interest of privacy and security for everyone who posts here, divulging your capital balance, profits or losses in any live trading account is very strongly discouraged. I cannot prevent you from doing it but it is not wise of you to do so on any public forums. If you want to tell other traders your profits and losses booked to balance, you may use aggregate pips based on the 4 decimal place system, or you may express it as a percentage of your capital. The same applies...
In all my years trading forex and posting on Forex forums never have I seen such a spirit of goodwill and cooperation. Without rules there is no order.

You never need to apologize for doing the right thing. I really appreciate your keeping order here and thanks again for providing a thread where we can post without personal attacks and hidden agenda's.
  • #1,564
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:46am Oct 10, 2011 10:46am
now i truly know what i did wrong.
i have always analyzed both sides/views/psycho levels of the market and this time i only analyzed the bearish stuff aka i was having a bearish bias, which broke my rule of not having a bias.

closed trades. -180 equity. now a 1310.31 so ROI is at 336.7% for now.
still a lot of profit, no worries.
here is what i mean i shouldve done.

miscalculation goes a long way haha.
area of interest is still far.

3800s.
bulls won till now.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #1,565
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:46am Oct 10, 2011 10:46am
Quoting knoholygrail
In all my years trading forex and posting on Forex forums never have I seen such a spirit of goodwill and cooperation. Without rules there is no order.

You never need to apologize for doing the right thing. I really appreciate your keeping order here and thanks again for providing a thread where we can post without personal attacks and hidden agenda's.
Thanks for your vote of confidence and support.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,566
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:50am Oct 10, 2011 10:50am
If we dont get a bounce here I dont know anything about trading
  • #1,567
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:51am Oct 10, 2011 10:51am
Just a few more pipis to t/p of +195 pips. I used this bull market on h4 and h1 tf.

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I think that when this all start to go up in London session many of traders in this group couldn't switch to bull side. If not for long time but in short period it could be profitable.
  • #1,568
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:53am Oct 10, 2011 10:53am
knoholygrail,

I think that the argument against the gold standard is compelling...the Austrians don't... Gold may reach 2000 next year...it may not...I'll buy at 1200...or forever hold my peace...and this is the Euro thread...

Cheers,

Aaron
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #1,569
  • Oct 10, 2011 11:00am Oct 10, 2011 11:00am
lol made mistakes on gold and dow actually as well.
coulve got perfect snipes here. take a look:

thats why its dangerous to have bias, and i had no idea that i had one at that moment. Thats why i try not to ever have one. This is my first, and see my loss?

thats whappens due to ignorance.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #1,570
  • Oct 10, 2011 11:01am Oct 10, 2011 11:01am
Well I guess I dont know anything about trading.

Do we have any significant news today really driving this or is this just a long overdue retrace?

Edit: And there is a good thing not trading Bank holidays
  • #1,571
  • Oct 10, 2011 11:04am Oct 10, 2011 11:04am
Quoting bumapatria
lol made mistakes on gold and dow actually as well.
coulve got perfect snipes here. take a look:

thats why its dangerous to have bias, and i had no idea that i had one at that moment. Thats why i try not to ever have one. This is my first, and see my loss?

thats whappens due to ignorance.
Don't beat yourself up over it. Like you said, you're still in good profit with a high roi
So write it off as tuition fees. We've all paid them so you shouldn't be an exception
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,572
  • Oct 10, 2011 11:05am Oct 10, 2011 11:05am
Wouldn't todays big change from 1,34 til 1,367, disturb the sleeping USD bulls?

I mean, isn't the impact of the European numbers today a bit fake and would open with a clash tommorow? The techncal analysis must be less significant these days.

Just sharing my thoughts, please comment.
Best regards
  • #1,573
  • Oct 10, 2011 11:07am Oct 10, 2011 11:07am
In my opinion Swede this is a long overdue retracement it won't last forever maybe not even for the asian session but certainly by the close tomorrow if we dont see a sell off ill throw my hat at this game its crazy to see so much buying with nothing driving it maybe if Greece comes out and say that infact they sit on 50years worth of oil well then ill admit theres reason to buy. But for now im watching closely to see when bears start swiping the bulls out of the way and take over and drive the euro down way down!
  • #1,574
  • Oct 10, 2011 11:07am Oct 10, 2011 11:07am
Quoting TheSwede
Well I guess I dont know anything about trading.

Do we have any significant news today really driving this or is this just a long overdue retrace?

Edit: And there is a good thing not trading Bank holidays
The shorts are covering. So open interest in shorts has dwindled. It is not a matter of the bulls taking over as much as it is the bears stepping aside. They take profits on their shorts and the price goes back up.
A large move in any direction will always eventually retrace (correct). Nobody hold positions forever. At some point they have to take profit.

ADD: Also when the price is cheap enough and the bulls see momentum in their direction, they jump in and add to the parade. Now those bulls will take profit as well and the euro will retrace down just as fast as it came up, but not as far until the bears see more reason to jump in
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,575
  • Oct 10, 2011 11:14am Oct 10, 2011 11:14am
I believe you are right. I don't see that anything really have changed macro speaking. Rumors and gossip. Lets see what happens tomorrow.

Since the open of the asian session we have crushed 3(!) 4H major resistance areas and we are still going. Don't know that I have ever seen that before.

EDIT: Its fun though and always something to learn.

Quoting RodMca
In my opinion Swede this is a long overdue retracement it won't last forever maybe not even for the asian session but certainly by the close tomorrow if we dont see a sell off ill throw my hat at this game its crazy to see so much buying with nothing driving it maybe if Greece comes out and say that infact they sit on 50years worth of oil well then ill admit theres reason to buy. But for now im watching closely to see when bears start swiping the bulls out of the way and take over and drive the euro down way down!
  • #1,576
  • Oct 10, 2011 11:15am Oct 10, 2011 11:15am
Quoting TheSwede
Well I guess I dont know anything about trading.

Do we have any significant news today really driving this or is this just a long overdue retrace?

Edit: And there is a good thing not trading Bank holidays
What has happened is the US Holiday. The largest funds flow through the US Bonds markets. The FED has an agenda. The Plunge Patrol Team of the US Government has an agenda.

Today is a perfect day to play the agenda card. Gold however is very strong and so are commodities. The NFP numbers on Friday was skewed by plus 40,000 because of the end of the Verizon strike.

You just need to be patient and wait for the games to end and the instant ALL IS WELL PERCEPTION to face up to the reality.

That's my take on it.
  • #1,577
  • Oct 10, 2011 11:16am Oct 10, 2011 11:16am
Swede,

You have... going the other direction...down...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #1,578
  • Oct 10, 2011 11:19am Oct 10, 2011 11:19am
Quoting TheSwede
I believe you are right. I don't see that anything really have changed macro speaking. Rumors and gossip. Lets see what happens tomorrow.

Since the open of the asian session we have crushed 3(!) 4H major resistance areas and we are still going. Don't know that I have ever seen that before.
I saw it a few times. 300 pip move Check 13 January 2011. There are many before that.
Also it has happened worse on the downside thrashing through support like it didn't exist.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,579
  • Oct 10, 2011 11:19am Oct 10, 2011 11:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
No I am not married to my bias... I am committed to the facts of the situation and I do not trade against the fundamentals

It is on days like this that I realize how those who just trade Price action on the charts without regard to the fundamentals are so much better off in some regards. However, my trading style is more macro than that and it's hard to teach an old dog new tricks
OK, I just woke up and read this post from PT.

Here's the problem: Fundamental trading is the perfect (let me say it again), PERFECT strategy. The problem is in our minds, as I said in an earlier post, we get so focused in what's happening and what we'd like to happen, that we forget what is likely to happen (in the short-mid term) and what the market is expecting to happen.

I am happy to say, PT, that we found the bottom of this channel at 1.3150, anyone can go look at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post5007763 I'm not lying. Asian Open, fresh air, 3rd of october, closed my sell positions. But you were so backed up by fundamentals that had already happened that you forgot what the market was expecting to happen. At this thread, we call it false hope I agree with that. But that was our call to close our sell trades. That's were the tricky thing of fundamentals takes place. And that's why fundamental trading is so awesome

Pbh
  • #1,580
  • Oct 10, 2011 11:20am Oct 10, 2011 11:20am
Well I certainly hope for my equities sake that this is a short lived rally. Remember Monday of last week saw the dow trade in a 400 point range. A rally 45 minutes before the closing bell it went from being down over 2% to being up over 2%. No to scenarios are the same but i wouldnt be surprised if something like the opposite of that were to happen today or maybe tomorrow. We're coming under resistance at 1.37 eur/usd and 1185 on the s&p ,the previous turning point when we saw an equity sell off after a day of rallying. Ill only be worried if we see a close above 1205 tomorrow.
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