EurAnalysis | Page 78 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #1,541
  • Oct 10, 2011 9:44am Oct 10, 2011 9:44am
hi all,
great thread thank you.

can anyone point me in the direction to review how gov bonds , yelds and cash flow into stocks and commodities are related..i often hear yields are high therefor less cash for stocks.. have i intererpreted this correctly!
some recent posts have lef me more muddled!

thanks afos
If ask a silly question.. forgive me!i'm just confused again!
  • #1,542
  • Oct 10, 2011 9:56am Oct 10, 2011 9:56am
Getting close lets see if we get there. Maybe I take a small short if PA confirms here.

Quoting TheSwede
Nope. flat, US bank holiday don't trade but then again I didn't friday either and ended up taking a trade anyway.

I can see that we could reach 1.367 Where we have an old 100% fib and the retrace from this move down at 38.2.
  • #1,543
  • Oct 10, 2011 9:58am Oct 10, 2011 9:58am
This run away bull train to the upside on EURUSD is not making much sense, at this point it looks to be approaching the tops of all technical areas, resistance is there, but no one is selling. Following the news isn't making sense either. Merkel and Sarkoszy basically said, "We'll get back to you", and the markets are taking it as a positive, to hell with Fitch downgrading the planet and the Brits are all saying the Euro is weeks from disaster.

I get the feeling something else is going on here, especially if the Euro runs over 1.37. It looks like the Fitch downgrade has done nothing more than pause the bulls.
  • #1,544
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:01am Oct 10, 2011 10:01am
1.3660 area is pretty well the line in the sand. If we get a daily close more than 50 pips above this level (say around 1.3700 or higher) we end up in bull territory.

I have mentioned the possibility of price coming up this high a couple of times in the last 2 weeks but I didn't really believe it would get here so soon.

Anyway, this is all driven by headlines of hope and optimism without the meat and potatoes. There is NO agreement in Europe yet. All they have is an agreement to reach an agreement, so we have no idea what that agreement will contain. Furthermore, any such agreement will have to be ratified by all 17 EMU member state parliaments. So far they have not even ratified the July 21 agreement to expand the EFSF. Slovakia and Malta are the last two countries. Even if they do approve it in the next few days, it still tells us that any such agreement would take approx 2 months at best to get ratified. Do I think the euro-skeptics will hold out that long before they start dumping euro bank stocks at the first sign of stress? The answer is NO

Anyway, in the meantime, should this bull market continue, I will sit on my hands, especially since it has now extended its gains so far that it is bound to correct significantly.

I am disappointed, but I am not broken

I am not making money on this move but I am not losing either, so I am happy

I will now wait for a clear reversal signal and a sign that this false perception of a solution has passed and I will place my fresh shorts to profit on the downtrend once more.... and that time will come.

No I am not married to my bias... I am committed to the facts of the situation and I do not trade against the fundamentals

It is on days like this that I realize how those who just trade Price action on the charts without regard to the fundamentals are so much better off in some regards. However, my trading style is more macro than that and it's hard to teach an old dog new tricks
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,545
  • Edited 10:37am Oct 10, 2011 10:02am | Edited 10:37am
There could be profit taking and things will get interesting starting with Europe near 2:00 AM EST on October 11, 2011

I did a few quick shorts today and I now have three open positions at 1.3655 and 1.3634 and 1.3630

My Stop Loss will be 1.3710 with only three open positions now.

I am a little bored so I did the last three trades looking to see if there will be profit taking by Noon today.

The consensus out there appears to be the EUR/USD has gone way higher than it should have gone. We shall see.
  • #1,546
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:03am Oct 10, 2011 10:03am
Quoting ntrprz
This run away bull train to the upside on EURUSD is not making much sense, at this point it looks to be approaching the tops of all technical areas, resistance is there, but no one is selling. Following the news isn't making sense either. Merkel and Sarkoszy basically said, "We'll get back to you", and the markets are taking it as a positive, to hell with Fitch downgrading the planet and the Brits are all saying the Euro is weeks from disaster.

I get the feeling something else is going on here, especially if the Euro runs over 1.37. It looks...
My view on this is that bank holiday. I shouldve held the long but hey wtf (pt i didnt spell it out) . Bank holiday = rest for dollar bulls. That was all i got, i didnt give much care to the b/s sarkozy and merkel are saying from their worst paid speech writers. Its basic market psychology. Euro bulls are at an advantage, and so that would create the current move. dont be too surprised, its the art of war + psychology of the market.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #1,547
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:12am Oct 10, 2011 10:12am
Quoting bumapatria
My view on this is that bank holiday. I shouldve held the long but hey wtf (pt i didnt spell it out) . Bank holiday = rest for dollar bulls. That was all i got, i didnt give much care to the b/s sarkozy and merkel are saying from their worst paid speech writers. Its basic market psychology. Euro bulls are at an advantage, and so that would create the current move. dont be too surprised, its the art of war + psychology of the market.
I like your confidence. How long have you been trading Forex ? I think I saw you post that your profit goal is 10% a month. If you can achieve that goal you will be considered one of the best trader's in the world. I watch the Barclay's rating monthly on the Top Ten Trader's managing a minimum of $1,000,000 however less than $10,000,000 US Dollars

Have you ever thought of managing a fund ?

When I first started out trading during 2003 I hated losing even one trade. During 2008 I took a substantial loss of over $100,000 when I decided that EUR/USD after making a new record of just over 1.6000 could not possibly go below 1.5000

Guess what it ended at 1.2500 and I finally learned about Ego and Risk Management.

Keep up the good work and good trading Dude !!!
  • #1,548
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:16am Oct 10, 2011 10:16am
  •  ajdb
  • | Joined May 2011 | Status: stick to your trade plan | 32 Posts
Quoting knoholygrail
There could be profit taking and things will get interesting starting with Europe near 2:00 AM EST on October 11, 2011

I did a few quick shorts today and I now have three open positions at 1.3655 and 1.3634 and 1.3630

My Stop Loss will be 1.3710 with only three open positions now. My capital is $77,655.40 US and my drawdown is less than $500

I am a little bored so I did the last three trades looking to see if there will be profit taking by Noon today.

The consensus out there appears to be the EUR/USD has gone way higher than it should have...
I only completed 1 small eur/usd trade today - it was a 16pip scalp. entry 3594 and TP at 3578

something to be aware of.... based on their charts, the guys at trading central are suggesting that euro could reach 1.369X & 1.376X in extension.

just passing on some info.
  • #1,549
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:18am Oct 10, 2011 10:18am
We have to work a bit to get gold into this forum, but hey, why not.

Euro has a one size fits all currency. Most people think this is a bad idea. And more people think that a "one world" currency is a bad idea for exactly the same reason that the Euro is a bad idea. One size does not fit all.

Gold currency, or a gold standard is a defacto monetary unity. Whatever the exchange is for the Swissy, the Pound, the USD for gold, once they are set, they are fixed to gold. With every currency in the world fixed to gold, and the price of gold fixed to each currency, we would have a) killed the market for gold b) created a one world currency by pegging every currency to each other.

This is one of the many reasons returning to the gold standard is a bad idea.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #1,550
  • Edited 10:38am Oct 10, 2011 10:20am | Edited 10:38am
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technic...ng_Slices.html

Lot's of shorts out there it seems. At least I got in later than that. I see some resistance at 1.3680 and 1.3690 and Round Number of 1.3700

I added a 4TH position at 1.3666 and that is it for me. I am out at 1.3710 if we get there.

What do the charts show ? On my 15 minute Oanda chart the SAR is staying green.

Trading forex is fun especially at times like this.
  • #1,551
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:21am Oct 10, 2011 10:21am
Today is nothing but happy press that I can find anywhere. Possible increases in US GDP growth? Where is that coming from? September simply could not have been kind to the banks, but they are rallying hard today along with just about everything else.

It is October, and fundamentals have a habit of catching up with Markets in October historically. The question is, will there be any money left in the account to see it if:

1. The Euro doesn't turn down and turn down hard
2. I cannot change my bias to shorting this disaster of a currency
3. I can't quit trading long enough to perhaps let the market find a new direction.

The problem I have with this, is that I am bearish by nature and it doesn't take much to convince me that the markets are overvalued. I missed the dotcom bubble, but also missed the profits on the way up for 2 years as I said this is a disaster waiting to happen. I missed the last bull market nearly entirely because even when the market bottomed, I thought it should have fallen another 25% and just couldn't get long. Right now my biggest issue is clearly myself and my biases, which i believe are supported by long term fundamentals and historical indicators of overvalued assets. The only market I have timed perfectly was the US Real Estate market, I sold my house at the top and haven't bought one since because my condo doubled in 11 months which I thought was crazy, so I sold. I don't think there was but one sale in my development higher.

I might have to chill for a bit and get a new focus, but I am so sure the next stop for the Euro is big time lower, I just can't miss the move when it happens.
  • #1,552
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:22am Oct 10, 2011 10:22am
Quoting knoholygrail
I like your confidence. How long have you been trading Forex ? I think I saw you post that your profit goal is 10% a month. If you can achieve that goal you will be considered one of the best trader's in the world. I watch the Barclay's rating monthly on the Top Ten Trader's managing a minimum of $1,000,000 however less than $10,000,000 US Dollars

Have you ever thought of managing a fund ?

When I first started out trading during 2003 I hated losing even one trade. During 2008 I took a substantial loss of over $100,000 when I decided that EUR/USD...
2 months to be honest. We all should learn from out losses, and turn a loss into a win in case a scenario happens in the same sorta situation. Im thinking of becoming an entrepreneur, with hedge funds, with a partnership with the people with similar mindset, skills, and innovation.

well, today is a good day. as i have said, i will only close all the trades until it becomes $-200. now it still has potential to grab profit as un-probable as it sounds, it does. this is not ego at work. losing this i would sitll have +180% of total profit from the deposit. i dont mind losing 10% in case it ever goes that way.

wow.. thats a lot of cash gone huh?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #1,553
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:30am Oct 10, 2011 10:30am
Quoting ntrprz
Today is nothing but happy press that I can find anywhere. Possible increases in US GDP growth? Where is that coming from? September simply could not have been kind to the banks, but they are rallying hard today along with just about everything else.

It is October, and fundamentals have a habit of catching up with Markets in October historically. The question is, will there be any money left in the account to see it if:

1. The Euro doesn't turn down and turn down hard
2. I cannot change my bias to shorting this disaster of a currency
3....

That is why you shouldnt have a bias. I honestly never have a bias. I just say what is there, and trade it. Remember, we are the flaw to our success and profits, so minimize that flaw by not having a bias. analyze what is there, and trade it. Dont let your bias limit your sight on only one possible direction on the market, thats why bias is usually dragging us down. It basically keeps u from longing when u have a bearish bias. when longing wouldve made substantial profit. and vice versa. forget what u think, just analyze, look at market sentiment, look at market psychology, trade it.

my advice, anyways, dont always take it before consideration, because i almost basically broke many rules in which fx traders should abide by. Well there are no rules to this game. You set the rules

good luck mate.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #1,554
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:30am Oct 10, 2011 10:30am
Anybody that pulls out the daily chart will quickly see that a 50% retracement will put the euro above 1.38. And a 61.8 puts the Euro at just about 1.40.

It might be fun to think of the Euro as a manic depressive. Down today, up tomorrow. Or perhaps, connecting dots, nationalizing a failed bank and a rising Euro means that that Europeans now feel safe.

But there is another explanation. Very simply, European exporters get paid in USD but they pay their bills in Euros. As everybody could see in early September, the Euro was going for a dive. So exporters held off for as long as they could. But not it is time to gear up for Christmas and they need to pay the bills or somebody will turn the lights out. And those that could hold off a bit longer decided to dump their USD anyway. Euro pops 300 pips.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #1,555
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:30am Oct 10, 2011 10:30am
.
UPDATE: New Rule added 10 October 2011

4. In the interest of privacy and security for everyone who posts here, divulging your capital balance, profits or losses in any live trading account is very strongly discouraged. I cannot prevent you from doing it but it is not wise of you to do so on any public forums. If you want to tell other traders your profits and losses booked to balance, you may use aggregate pips based on the 4 decimal place system, or you may express it as a percentage of your capital. The same applies to floating profits and losses... pips or percentage of capital. Obviously this rule does not apply if you are trading in a demo account as long as you make that fact clear to others while posting your numbers.

Please don't hate me for this but at this point, I suggest to whoever has done this in previous posts, to go back and edit any such contraventions of this rule as it is now officially retroactive. Thanks for your cooperation



.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,556
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:32am Oct 10, 2011 10:32am
Quoting AaronWard
We have to work a bit to get gold into this forum, but hey, why not.

Euro has a one size fits all currency. Most people think this is a bad idea. And more people think that a "one world" currency is a bad idea for exactly the same reason that the Euro is a bad idea. One size does not fit all.

Gold currency, or a gold standard is a defacto monetary unity. Whatever the exchange is for the Swissy, the Pound, the USD for gold, once they are set, they are fixed to gold. With every currency in the world fixed to gold, and the price of gold fixed...
Gold and Silver have no debt. Gold and Silver has been a store of wealth for over 5000 Years.

We had the Roman Empire and after the British Empire and Then there was Germany. All fiat currencies end up self destructing for the same reasons.

Because of the Breton Woods and the US Dollar becoming the world's reserve currency up until recent days and along with the decoupling of Gold from the US Dollar on August 15, 1971 there has been no check and balance on money printing since 1971.

Then along came Free Trade and Globilization and now we have a Big Problem.

We might not have a Gold standard however the price of Gold will continue to go up.

It is not a question of if however when. It has gone up substantially in the last ten years and it can only go higher.

You can sell Gold in any currency. The better Asset class is Silver. More upside and less downside.

My call is for Gold to be trading over $2000 in 2012 and Silver over $50

The historical ratio between Gold and Silver is 16 to 1

Look at it now. Silver is an industrial metal. The emerging nations have Billions of people. The power structure in the world is changing. We can see it in front of our eyes every day.

Gold is at $1667.00 and very strong today.
  • #1,557
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:33am Oct 10, 2011 10:33am
Quoting duyk20
So, my short-term view was spot-on for now

Some weakness found on top, nothing major of yet. Buy the pullback
Same thing over here, but I did never thought it would be this strong.
  • #1,558
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:34am Oct 10, 2011 10:34am
@PT.

demo
.

im sure u know right?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #1,559
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:38am Oct 10, 2011 10:38am
Quoting bumapatria
@PT.

demo
.

im sure u know right?
Yes I know
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,560
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:39am Oct 10, 2011 10:39am
Quoting knoholygrail
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technic...ng_Slices.html

Lot's of shorts out there it seems. At least I got in later than that. I see some resistance at 1.3680 and 1.3690 and Round Number of 1.3700

I added a 4TH position at 1.3666 and that is it for me. My drawdown is $964.00 Under 2% of my capital and I am out at 1.3710 if we get there.

What do the charts show ? On my 15 minute Oanda chart the SAR is staying green.

Trading forex is fun especially at times like this.
the same source.

I am also in short
Attached Image
36 traders viewing now