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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #28,081
  • Oct 9, 2011 11:56pm Oct 9, 2011 11:56pm
We live in the range @ 76-77 for almost 50 days now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily.png Size: 35 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,082
  • Oct 10, 2011 3:23am Oct 10, 2011 3:23am
Quoting paulw6182
long 25 pip 50 would take to long in this tight range
that trade worked. my alpari demo accounts only last a week now and trades not showing in the account history very frustrating and unproductive. i hear owanda has unlimited demos but its harder to open up their demos.
  • #28,083
  • Oct 10, 2011 5:50am Oct 10, 2011 5:50am
Quoting FXMindset
We live in the range @ 76-77 for almost 50 days now

20 50 ema have flattened out...

100ema at 77.03 ... (tried to break twice and resistance held, but resistance is getting weak)

200ema 77.68... one strong break might be coming...

A strong base is formed IMO...
  • #28,084
  • Oct 10, 2011 7:51am Oct 10, 2011 7:51am
This has got to be the most boring pair... its been limited to within a narrow range since Mid August....

The Buyers could not bring it up on their own, and the Sellers are scared of intervention.
  • #28,085
  • Oct 10, 2011 8:00am Oct 10, 2011 8:00am
Quoting BurgerKing
This has got to be the most boring pair... its been limited to within a narrow range since Mid August....

The Buyers could not bring it up on their own, and the Sellers are scared of intervention.
Haha definitely bro...trade UJ for some years and I must said that this time is the most boring one...
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,086
  • Oct 10, 2011 9:07am Oct 10, 2011 9:07am
Quoting FXMindset
Haha definitely bro...trade UJ for some years and I must said that this time is the most boring one...
it is indeed very . but the thing abt this pair is that is hasnt form any new low for the past weeks.

however we cannot rule out a possible spikes down to the round number low 76.00 support to clear those longers beofre advancing upwards.

trade with care
trade safe
  • #28,087
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:39am Oct 10, 2011 10:39am
Quoting BurgerKing
This has got to be the most boring pair... its been limited to within a narrow range since Mid August....

The Buyers could not bring it up on their own, and the Sellers are scared of intervention.
That too me is the bigger reason to look long rather than short. CHF has removed itself as a haven with tough measures to ensure it doesn't appreciate and now the Yen, if it gets any stronger will more than likely intervene. We are at the same levels that saw longs glorified (if they held) and short sellers smashed in March and a similar occurrence in early August.

Too me it is an exciting pair to watch because ranges that tighten like this usually explode and a sneaky intervention can not be ruled out.
  • #28,088
  • Oct 10, 2011 12:23pm Oct 10, 2011 12:23pm
Quoting Razor_trader
That too me is the bigger reason to look long rather than short. CHF has removed itself as a haven with tough measures to ensure it doesn't appreciate and now the Yen, if it gets any stronger will more than likely intervene. We are at the same levels that saw longs glorified (if they held) and short sellers smashed in March and a similar occurrence in early August.

Too me it is an exciting pair to watch because ranges that tighten like this usually explode and a sneaky intervention can not be ruled out.
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,089
  • Edited 1:29pm Oct 10, 2011 1:27pm | Edited 1:29pm
Quoting Razor_trader
That too me is the bigger reason to look long rather than short. CHF has removed itself as a haven with tough measures to ensure it doesn't appreciate and now the Yen, if it gets any stronger will more than likely intervene. We are at the same levels that saw longs glorified (if they held) and short sellers smashed in March and a similar occurrence in early August.

Too me it is an exciting pair to watch because ranges that tighten like this usually explode and a sneaky intervention can not be ruled out.

http://www.forexfactory.com/<div style=

can anyone explain what exactly caused this spike on 8/3/2011 17:00 GMT? I'm long and holding with tight stops and this type of spike is what I'm looking for. Could'nt get the pic to load.
Live to Trade FX - Trade FX to Live
  • #28,090
  • Oct 10, 2011 2:55pm Oct 10, 2011 2:55pm
Trying a long @ 76.65
No special reason just feeling uncomfortable without one and not too bad level

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #28,091
  • Oct 10, 2011 2:58pm Oct 10, 2011 2:58pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Trying a long @ 76.65
No special reason just feeling uncomfortable without one and not too bad level

Attachment
long too this same level
waiting for Current Account bad news
  • #28,092
  • Edited 3:45pm Oct 10, 2011 3:30pm | Edited 3:45pm
Quoting Razor_trader
ranges that tighten like this usually explode and a sneaky intervention can not be ruled out.
What exactly do you mean by "sneaky?"

Anyone following the news is going to be able to detect any such announcement in time to pull out of a range-based trade.

Pull out of any trades you are in before any scheduled (including any suddenly scheduled ones) BoJ announcements/press releases.

Simple.

I've been enjoying the sell-at-resistance, buy-at-support range trading on this pair for a while now. Range-based traders sure as hell haven't been complaining. This has been the only major pair that hasn't been turned upside down by the FOMC and euro crap these past couple of weeks, and the only one reliable enough for trading.

F*** trends and volatility. Best way to lose money with haste.

I can trade ranges with a high volume and get much better results than playing "guess the direction of a trend that may or may not even happen and hope for the best." (a.k.a. gambling)

Here's hoping this pair STAYS in this ranging environment indefinitely. The longer it does, the longer I can trade with consistent profits.

Stay flat.

After USD/CAD completely let me down by breaking out of its characteristic, ranging behavior (and how), I had to default to USD/JPY.
  • #28,093
  • Oct 10, 2011 6:17pm Oct 10, 2011 6:17pm
USD/JPY orders: Stops building in size, day-by-day

By Sean Lee || October 10, 2011 at 22:29 GMT
|| 0 comments || Add comment

 

  1. Large option-related stops reported below 75.90, 75.75 and 75.50
  2. Barriers at latter two levels, with strong bids ahead of each
  3. Corporate sell orders starting at 77.10

One interbank dealer tells me that this pair will trade at 70.00 before it trades at 80.00 but personally I find it impossible to garner any sort of feel in a market that is trading sideways.

Gone to a better place
  • #28,094
  • Oct 10, 2011 6:18pm Oct 10, 2011 6:18pm
Quoting Razor_trader

Too me it is an exciting pair to watch because ranges that tighten like this usually explode and a sneaky intervention can not be ruled out.
True!
Gone to a better place
  • #28,095
  • Oct 10, 2011 9:32pm Oct 10, 2011 9:32pm
Quoting smikester
USD/JPY orders: Stops building in size, day-by-day

By Sean Lee || October 10, 2011 at 22:29 GMT
|| 0 comments || Add comment

[list][*]Large option-related stops reported below 75.90, 75.75 and 75.50[*][font=Garamond]Barriers...
China Adds to Japan Debt for First Time in 10 Months in August

China bought more Japanese debt than it sold for the first time since October 2010 as the larger nation sought refuges from fiscal crises in the U.S. and Europe.
The country with the fastest growing major economy bought a net 345.6 billion yen ($4.5 billion) in money-market instruments and sold 166.7 billion yen in Japanese bonds and notes in August, resulting in a total purchase of 178.9 billion yen, according to a statement from Japan’s Ministry of Finance released in Tokyo today.
“Adding to the broad trend that overseas central banks are diversifying away from the U.S. dollar in their currency reserves, the yen has become a refuge from the financial turmoil that started in Europe,” said Yuji Kameoka, managing director of the investment strategy and research department in Tokyo at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co., a unit of Japan’s second- biggest brokerage.
The yen strengthened to a postwar record of 75.95 on Aug. 19 amid concern the European sovereign-debt crisis may spread to the region’s bigger economies, while Japan’s benchmark 10-year yields sank to as low as 0.97 percent that month.
Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S.’s AAA long-term credit rating for the first time on Aug. 5, citing the nation’s political process and criticizing lawmakers for failing to cut spending or raise revenue enough to trim record budget deficits.
The yen tends to appreciate during economic and financial turmoil because Japan’s current-account surplus makes it less reliant on foreign capital. The Japanese currency traded at 76.75 per dollar as of 9:52 a.m. in Tokyo from 76.68 yesterday in New York. Ten-year bonds yielded 1 percent.
China will continue to “seek diversification in the management of reserve assets, strengthen risk management, and minimize the negative impacts of the fluctuations in the international financial market on the Chinese economy,” People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in August. China holds the world’s largest foreign-exchange reserves at more than $3 trillion.
trade safe
  • #28,096
  • Oct 10, 2011 9:56pm Oct 10, 2011 9:56pm
Quoting kibescorp
What exactly do you mean by "sneaky?"

Anyone following the news is going to be able to detect any such announcement in time to pull out of a range-based trade.

Pull out of any trades you are in before any scheduled (including any suddenly scheduled ones) BoJ announcements/press releases.

Simple.

I've been enjoying the sell-at-resistance, buy-at-support range trading on this pair for a while now. Range-based traders sure as hell haven't been complaining. This has been the only major pair that hasn't been turned upside down by the...

If I am remember correctly the Swiss news was pretty surprising when they implement there lower limits not long ago. The price moves in the first 5-10 secs were explosive by nature, the spreads over 10 pips. What hope did a range bound player have in those circumstances. If they had stops and they were honored then that is fine but manual exiting would have been a nightmare, the spreads alone where massive.

The range for the USD/JPY has been tight, very tight and those trading the range successfully have done well. The explosive nature of range breakouts alone in there initial phase can wipe stops/limts that are in the way, add an intervention breakout the speed is quick, very quick and anyone who has been around when they start are aware of this. Tight stops will not survive as the nature of the break is usually both sides being whipsawed to clear out the traffic before heading in the determine direction.

The question is, will the BOJ allow the currency to gain much more? Given that the swiss haven has closed its doors and is now exercising swift policy to keep the value at a level or better it has the effect of minimising the short side because people dont want to take that risk. JPY will be much the same based on the economical needs of it survival and we have seen in the past massive spikes northward when it was needed. I dont think it coincidental that the swiss have made a level mark and that the JPY has not fallen through the floor.

I am positioned ready to cut my losses if I need be but I think the northside looks far more profitable that the southside.

RT
  • #28,097
  • Oct 10, 2011 11:50pm Oct 10, 2011 11:50pm
^ I don't doubt that such an action would send the pair into a frenzy, but what I'm saying is that as long as you are conscientious of the fundamentals (and have enough sense not to be in a trade prior to any potential "explosive" revelations), you shouldn't get caught up in it.

Case-in-point:

The recent FOMC statement accompanying the rate decision from a few weeks ago that sent stocks plummeting (bad for anyone shorting the USD) was a huge, arguably "unexpected" price moving force ... but traders should have had the sense to have NOT been in a trade prior to that statement.
  • #28,098
  • Oct 11, 2011 4:27am Oct 11, 2011 4:27am
Quoting kibescorp
^ I don't doubt that such an action would send the pair into a frenzy, but what I'm saying is that as long as you are conscientious of the fundamentals (and have enough sense not to be in a trade prior to any potential "explosive" revelations), you shouldn't get caught up in it.

Case-in-point:

The recent FOMC statement accompanying the rate decision from a few weeks ago that sent stocks plummeting (bad for anyone shorting the USD) was a huge, arguably "unexpected" price moving force ... [b]but traders should have had the sense to have NOT...
Timer ticking~ awaits the BO for clearer direction
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.jpg Size: 170 KB
trade safe
  • #28,099
  • Edited Oct 12, 2011 5:11am Oct 11, 2011 5:21am | Edited Oct 12, 2011 5:11am
USDJPY Daily Outlook
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,100
  • Oct 11, 2011 5:45am Oct 11, 2011 5:45am
+4.6p
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