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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #1,341
  • Oct 9, 2011 3:40pm Oct 9, 2011 3:40pm
Quoting Pegasus54
5 minute chart.
Below the green trendline then 3366-3336 is possible.Otherwise, a test of 3427 is possible.
trend line on m5 has been broken.
Volume is very low
Tokyo is closed today so I expect it to stay this way till Europe opens
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,342
  • Oct 9, 2011 4:01pm Oct 9, 2011 4:01pm
This is my preparation work for the day.

I also draw trend lines on weekly, daily, 4 hours and 1 hour in different colours.

I have a few set up that I am looking for: one for bounces, one for break out (5m) and one when the movement already started, I switch to 1m and do the opposite of the obvious.

I do not take those set up unconditionally, but only if I feel traders are trapped and I take the opposite direction.

I also take position when not set up occurs but traders are trapped.

To be able to see and feel I need to focus on every candle.

Best time to focus for me is just before europe opening.

I think I have received to many vouch lately and I am not sure if I deserve them.

So I dedicate this post to the ones that vouch me with gratitude.

Cheers
mla
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"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #1,343
  • Oct 9, 2011 4:03pm Oct 9, 2011 4:03pm
The dax opened higher but immediately came off its highs, with an overbought stochastic and a downward pointing rsi at 70, if technicals are anything to go by its looking like europe is in for a bit of a sell of tomorrow. After all they are just technicals the fundamentals may outweigh these but all i know is I'm not worried about my shorts. Not for now anyway! I just hope PT is right and everything remains calm in Asia and that we dont wake up to any surprises when Europe opens!
  • #1,344
  • Oct 9, 2011 4:23pm Oct 9, 2011 4:23pm
If there was panic in the air for the euro it would have sold off in Welly/Sydney. We shall see what the FO/LO brings, but as I said before I see the Dexia 100% nationalization (and the Merkozy blabladebla) as a resolution of an uncertainty, so therefore a bit of boost for risk.

I don't often trade Monday asian session, but I was long A/U from .9740 & just closed that for 25 pips. 25 pips is all I really ever want to squeeze out of early asia, so I am off till fo/lo.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,345
  • Oct 9, 2011 4:32pm Oct 9, 2011 4:32pm
Okay with many men in the room and no beautiful women, this is what I see in PT's crystal ball!

Remember I am working on profit cushion and will not allow bad trade to run long in this market....but chance to pick up a few rogue pips!

Disclaimer: Trade what you see!
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  • #1,346
  • Oct 9, 2011 4:53pm Oct 9, 2011 4:53pm
I think Im gonna try a long w/30-40 pip stop. euro may slip up in absence of market depth..
i see an inverted shoulder- head-head- shoulder in m5 if theres such a thing lol
  • #1,347
  • Oct 9, 2011 4:56pm Oct 9, 2011 4:56pm
Each of us have our own way to trade as suits our personalities and time available for trading. I have one trading tool that I could not trade forex without. It is a tool available to most if you so desire to use it.

At the moment I have all my positions closed and I am all in cash. I am watching live CNBC, the world edition. Aside from the interviews I just heard the comments out of Berlin. Then the so called experts come on each with different opinions. I listen to some of them that I know make sense however the main reason that I always trade using CNBC as a trading tool is this.

At the moment scrolling on my TV screen is the following data;

Dow Futures up 27.00
Gold down $9.50
Oil flat
USD/JPY 76.76
EUR/JPY 102.73
EUR/USD 1.3385

On my FXCM UK trading platform I have 12 asset classes that I follow even though I am mainly trading EUR/USD

They are set in rows of three as follows;

EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY

GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

AUD/USD, SPX500, US30

USOil, XAU/USD, XAG/USD

When the US markets are open from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM, I always watch the yields on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Years.

Now I will explain to anyone interested why I need this information.

All the above currencies and commodities are asset classes. The money constantly flows between these asset classes.

Let me give you a real life example. Right now the Dow Futures are up 27.00 well before the Europe open. Let us say that Europe likes the news of the last few hours and that positive stays and causes the US Markets to go up.

Since there is NO USA data on Monday the tone would be set.

The money will flow out of the 2 Year US Bonds and the also out of the 10 Year US Bonds since it appears that risk is back on.

The money flows to the EUR/USD and other risk currencies. The money flow leads the charts. When the panic is back on and the markets crash most of the funds flow into US Dollars which are then used to buy the US Bonds and as they go up in price then the yields go down.

This method works for me because it lets me follow the momentum of the various markets and asset classes and I have an edge in my trading.

I hope this post is helpful and if anyone has any questions please feel free to post them.

P.S. I got a telephone call and this post was delayed for about one hour so some of the above numbers have probably changed.
  • #1,348
  • Oct 9, 2011 4:56pm Oct 9, 2011 4:56pm
Quoting RodMca
The dax opened higher but immediately came off its highs, with an overbought stochastic and a downward pointing rsi at 70, if technicals are anything to go by its looking like europe is in for a bit of a sell of tomorrow. After all they are just technicals the fundamentals may outweigh these but all i know is I'm not worried about my shorts. Not for now anyway! I just hope PT is right and everything remains calm in Asia and that we dont wake up to any surprises when Europe opens!
Rod,
We we could just trade by technicals alone with 100% certainty, I would be shorting the DAX30 with everything I got.

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,349
  • Oct 9, 2011 5:06pm Oct 9, 2011 5:06pm
Quoting knoholygrail
Each of us have our own way to trade as suits our personalities and time available for trading. I have one trading tool that I could not trade forex without. It is a tool available to most if you so desire to use it.

At the moment I have all my positions closed and I am all in cash. I am watching live CNBC, the world edition. Aside from the interviews I just heard the comments out of Berlin. Then the so called experts come on each with different opinions. I listen to some of them that I know make sense however the main reason that I always trade...
Okay so now we've established that you and I watch the same asset classes except for the treasury yields. I usually get the yield info from cnbc but it would be nice to see them on my screen. Any idea where I may find that info charted?
By the way, my preferred broker is also fxcm uk
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,350
  • Oct 9, 2011 5:09pm Oct 9, 2011 5:09pm
Quoting The Fool
If there was panic in the air for the euro it would have sold off in Welly/Sydney. We shall see what the FO/LO brings, but as I said before I see the Dexia 100% nationalization (and the Merkozy blabladebla) as a resolution of an uncertainty, so therefore a bit of boost for risk.

I don't often trade Monday asian session, but I was long A/U from .9740 & just closed that for 25 pips. 25 pips is all I really ever want to squeeze out of early asia, so I am off till fo/lo.
Agreed... and right now it is looking like it's risk-on
I believe I will book some profit from some of my shorts and let the rest ride.
Will re-evaluate at Europe open.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,351
  • Oct 9, 2011 5:14pm Oct 9, 2011 5:14pm
Looks like they will try to run it up......but when banks come off holiday...... there will be h e double toothpicks to pay! While the cat away the mice will play, but when the cats come back......well its open season.
I changed my number from.3440 to .3462. It's sexier!
  • #1,352
  • Oct 9, 2011 5:18pm Oct 9, 2011 5:18pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Looks like they will try to run it up......but when banks come off holiday...... there will be h e double toothpicks to pay! While the cat away the mice will play, but when the cats come back......well its open season.
I changed my number from.3440 to .3462. It's sexier!
Oh snap! no need to change , i originally put in .3462! No more Sunday night Glenlivets for this rodent!
  • #1,353
  • Oct 9, 2011 5:19pm Oct 9, 2011 5:19pm
One thing I learned is to never fight the market.

So, I closed my 1.3460 short for +60 pips and my 1.3513 short for another +113 pips

Total +173 pips

Still holding my short at 1.3773 though

Now off for a snooze till Europe open
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,354
  • Oct 9, 2011 5:21pm Oct 9, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting PipTrapper
trend line on m5 has been broken.
Volume is very low
Tokyo is closed today so I expect it to stay this way till Europe opens
Sorry, had to leave for a while but youre right PT that we may not get much movement for now. I forgot about Tokyo being closed.
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #1,355
  • Oct 9, 2011 5:22pm Oct 9, 2011 5:22pm
Quoting mla
This is my preparation work for the day.

I also draw trend lines on weekly, daily, 4 hours and 1 hour in different colours.

I have a few set up that I am looking for: one for bounces, one for break out (5m) and one when the movement already started, I switch to 1m and do the opposite of the obvious.

I do not take those set up unconditionally, but only if I feel traders are trapped and I take the opposite direction.

I also take position when not set up occurs but traders are trapped.

To be able to see and feel I need to focus on every candle.

Best...
You earned your vouches mla
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #1,356
  • Edited 5:29pm Oct 9, 2011 5:24pm | Edited 5:29pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Okay so now we've established that you and I watch the same asset classes except for the treasury yields. I usually get the yield info from cnbc but it would be nice to see them on my screen. Any idea where I may find that info charted?
By the way, my preferred broker is also fxcm uk
I cannot express my pleasure enough to find another trader that understands what I understand. I would suggest Bloomberg TV which you can watch live on your monitor. I work with three monitors with the one on my left being my trading platform. The middle one is for charts and the hundred's of emails that I get each day. I use the one on my left for the open Oanda charts that I use.

My technicals consist of Bollinger Bands, EMA, Parobolic Sar and with FXCM UK fractional indicator. For myself I love using the SAR with the color green on top and red on the bottom. Below that I use MACD and RSI and I find that Oanda's Awesome Indicator gives me a feel for volume.

Getting back to the 2 Year and 10 Year Us Bonds they are very important in that they show where the money is ending up. When the Yields go down it means the money is going into the US Bonds and when the Yield goes up the money comes out as the US Bonds sell off as risk goes back on.

The changes in the yields gives you a heads up on where the money is flowing. You can also try WWW.INO.COM for information and charts on all asset cleasses. It is a free service. Chart of 10 Year US Bonds ... http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.ht...t=&a=&w=&v=d12

I hope this information is helpful for you. I enjoy your commentary and I look forward to sharing with you and everyone posting on this thread.

There seems to be some movement up past 1.3400 as some of the retail trader's from Japan and Hong Kong are coming onboard. They usually get reversed when the Europe desks open if that is the prevailing view from the desk trader's.
  • #1,357
  • Oct 9, 2011 5:31pm Oct 9, 2011 5:31pm
Quoting knoholygrail
I cannot express my pleasure enough to find another trader that understands what I understand. I would suggest Bloomberg TV which you can watch live on your monitor. I work with three monitors with the one on my left being my trading platform. The middle one is for charts and the hundred's of emails that I get each day. I use the one on my left for the open Oanda charts that I use.

My technicals consist of Bollinger Bands, EMA, Parobolic Sar and with FXCM UK fractional indicator. For myself I love using the SAR with the color green on top and...
Thanks for that info knoh. I really need to learn more about this stuff.
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #1,358
  • Oct 9, 2011 5:55pm Oct 9, 2011 5:55pm
Quoting Pegasus54
Thanks for that info knoh. I really need to learn more about this stuff.
It would be my pleasure to share with you my knowledge of things forex. Just post your questions and I will be glad to answer them for you. We can always learn new things each day as long as we keep an open mind. Having a positive mental attitude and reducing fear of loss by increased knowledge is a good thing.

Right now even though Japan is closed the retail trader's seem to think EUR/USD is meant to go up since Merkel and Sarkozy put a positive spin on the problems. The problems are not solved as yet and doubts remain if there is a real solution without great pain for the banks. It should reflect more how the markets will react more on Tuesday rather than Monday however keep in mind short term the market is always right until it is wrong. We will have better clues after 2:00 AM EST when the Europe stock markets get ready to open. Then the risk on risk off assets start to trade and the money flow to the various asset classes will move the prices around. Of course the technicals are part of this since everyone knows where support and resistance is.

Have fun trading forex and only trade with funds you can afford to lose. I traded demo accounts for three years before I ever did a live trade with real funds. That worked for me and five years later I am still trading real funds and learning more each day.

I remember when I traded EUR/USD and EUR/JPY at the same time not realizing at the time that they basically go in the same direction.

When USD/JPY goes down which means it gets stronger then this causes movement in EUR/JPY and when EUR/JPY goes up it usually brings EUR/USD up with it or down with it.
  • #1,359
  • Oct 9, 2011 6:05pm Oct 9, 2011 6:05pm
http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-resear...gmrefcode=gata

Snippet:

Quantitative easing, or when there's nowhere left to run

2011-OCT-08

http://www.goldmoney.com/images/thum...g_13471715.pngOver the last few weeks there has been a growing realisation that the weaker members of the eurozone are caught in debt traps. When the “PIIGS” (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) signed up to the eurozone they gave up the right to devalue, which is the traditional and delusionary escape route for sovereign debtors. But when you come up against the realities of hard money, this route is blocked. A temporary solution has been to gets banks to buy government bonds, but the banks can take no more. This leaves us with a banking problem, but fortunately their solvency is being underwritten by the European Central Bank, without which the eurozone would have ground to a financial halt.
The ECB, together with the national central banks, can only support these banks by writing a blank cheque on itself, while using all means possible to conceal and play down the losses in the system. This essentially is what happens with the good-bank/bad-bank solution: if the bad stuff is carted away to be dealt with out of the public gaze leaving the good stuff behind, what is there to worry about?
We have to keep our fingers crossed that the ECB continues to succeed in co-coordinating this vital task, and indeed, its strongest suit is that we all want it to succeed. But this still leaves us with the unanswered question of how to resolve the sovereign debt traps.

Conclusion as it relates to Gold.

The idea that QE is primarily to help the economy recover is Keynesian guff, a cover for the true reason. Without it, the US and UK would have to compete for global savings at far higher interest rates. What price $2 trillion in new Treasuries with no QE? What price £175 billion in new gilts? The debt trap has already sprung. And few investors yet seem aware of the irony that loading up banks with Treasuries and gilts is exactly what the eurozone banks have already done for the PIIGS. Whatever the current difficulties faced by European banks and the US and UK governments and their banking systems, there is only one option for all of them: buy time by printing yet more money. This is why the banking system in the eurozone and elsewhere will survive. Banks need governments as much as governments need them. The cost of this survival will be borne by the unwitting saver, who has been frightened into cash only to find it being debased more rapidly than before.
This makes the recent fall in gold and silver prices nonsensical. But then just as the investment community walked blindly into stock market losses, they are just as clueless about the inflationary implications of rescuing sovereign debt.
  • #1,360
  • Oct 9, 2011 6:23pm Oct 9, 2011 6:23pm
One of the things that trader's should be aware of is that if EUR/JPY moves up 50 to 100 PIPS it will bring EUR/USD up with it. You should also look at charts of EUR/JPY.

When the Yen is sold in larger volume and Euro's are bought in the currency pair it can counter weakness in EUR/USD. It depends on volume and other factors. EUR/JPY has had quite a run down and it is capable of a bounce back. This is not a market call by myself it is just to point it out.

IFR markets shorted EUR/JPY at 1.0315 with a Stop at 1.0395

EUR/JPY now trades at 1.0320 and is rising on a 15 minute chart from 1.0246 at 3:00 PM EST

Barclay's is now putting out a buy call on EUR/JPY because of the large short position on Euro's.

Everyone has an opinion and in the end it is about supply and demand. There is not much volume in these markets now so moves can get exagerated.

Just some thought before I break for a rest before the Europe open. Good Trading Everyone. Sometimes the BEST trade is no trade at least until you have a trade plan and a real reason to enter a trade.
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