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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #1,121
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:27pm Oct 7, 2011 1:27pm
Quoting AaronWard
I'm thinking... maybe I should go long on the Euro to get the swap...what are you guys doing?

edit: joking
Bout to ask you whose side are you on here. We're BEARS!
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #1,122
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:32pm Oct 7, 2011 1:32pm
CNBC getting very predictable..
yesterday it was Steve Jobs,
today it is US jobs...
  • #1,123
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:34pm Oct 7, 2011 1:34pm
Bears beware...

I kinda thought we'd see usd weaken at the beginning of October for no other reason than October began injection of USD from the Fed to the ECB. Liquidity clogs in the eurozone banking system are being flushed out with greenbacks. Short term carry trade between the central banks. Backdoor QE3. Stockmarket back on the feedbucket.

I don't see new lower lows for the euro while this usd liquidity is being provided to ECB, and that program is scheduled to extend til the end of the year. Ranging, 1.32 - 1.37, per my original vote...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,124
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:42pm Oct 7, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting drtorque
CNBC getting very predictable..
yesterday it was Steve Jobs,
today it is US jobs...
I wonder what kind of jobs it will be on Monday... or maybe they just "blow" that whole concept.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,125
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:47pm Oct 7, 2011 1:47pm
Finally, clear move down.

For a moment, it looked like we were on Moon - the slow motion fall...
  • #1,126
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:49pm Oct 7, 2011 1:49pm
Quoting The Fool
Bears beware...

I kinda thought we'd see usd weaken at the beginning of October for no other reason than October began injection of USD from the Fed to the ECB. Liquidity clogs in the eurozone banking system are being flushed out with greenbacks. Short term carry trade between the central banks. Backdoor QE3. Stockmarket back on the feedbucket.

I don't see new lower lows for the euro while this usd liquidity is being provided to ECB, and that program is scheduled to extend til the end of the year. Ranging, 1.32 - 1.37, per my original vote...
Kinda thinking the same thing myself Fool. However, I see many overriding fundamentals on the euro itself. I know it's a risk currency and correlates to equities and commodities, but in extreme circumstances, that correlation breaks just like it did in early 2010. At worst I am seeing a very slow and bumpy ride down.

Regardless, my sentiment is still bearish. If I have to trade the range for the next 2 to 3 months, I'm okay with that. Did it from May to August so no biggie.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,127
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:50pm Oct 7, 2011 1:50pm
Hey you guys I came home and see beautiful picture:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 244 KB


I also enter short before 5 hours when I saw that 61.8 fibo still holding. Stop is on BE and t/p is at 1.3005. T/p I'll probable modify next week. Till then good weekend to all.
  • #1,128
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:52pm Oct 7, 2011 1:52pm
Quoting the redlion
hey friend, i am here just like you invited me.
Thanks for stopping by Red. I've been following you on Buma's thread and I've learned a few things. Who says you can't teach an old dog new tricks? I like your approach and I am studying it.

Cheers and happy weekend
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,129
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:53pm Oct 7, 2011 1:53pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I wonder what kind of jobs it will be on Monday... or maybe they just "blow" that whole concept.
Guess it depends on whose gonna die over the weekend...

maybe Greece?
So they'll talk about Trojan war, or US-China currency war..
  • #1,130
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:54pm Oct 7, 2011 1:54pm
Quoting mkrajaci
Hey you guys I came home and see beautiful picture:

Attachment

I also enter short before 5 hours when I saw that 61.8 fibo still holding. Stop is on BE and t/p is at 1.3005. T/p I'll probable modify next week. Till then good weekend to all.
Excellent

Now go relax and sleep well
.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,131
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:55pm Oct 7, 2011 1:55pm
Quoting drtorque
Guess it depends on whose gonna die over the weekend...

maybe Greece?
So they'll talk about Trojan war, or US-China currency war..
Ahh I got it. On keeping with the "jobs" theme, they will discuss the Greek con job
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,132
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:56pm Oct 7, 2011 1:56pm
Are we expecting a bearish close?
I wonder whether people opened more longs or shorts today..
  • #1,133
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:58pm Oct 7, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Ahh I got it. On keeping with the "jobs" theme, they will discuss the Greek con job

incredible how these greeks robbed Germans.. Im waiting to come across Deutsch friends to joke about it...
But no, all Frenchies here, and they dont get jokes
  • #1,134
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:04pm Oct 7, 2011 2:04pm
Quoting drtorque
Are we expecting a bearish close?
I wonder whether people opened more longs or shorts today..
Anyone who opened longs today is long squeezed out and whoever is still in will probably not have an opportunity to get out without a loss.

I feel for them but it goes to show you that it never pays to doubt the underlying fundamentals.

Never fight the trend because the market can keep fighting you for much longer than you can keep funding your account.

Now Monday may be a different story but we're not there yet. I just focus on the now and project where I feel things will go. 4 to 12 hours at a time.

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,135
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:06pm Oct 7, 2011 2:06pm
Quoting The Fool
Bears beware...

I kinda thought we'd see usd weaken at the beginning of October for no other reason than October began injection of USD from the Fed to the ECB. Liquidity clogs in the eurozone banking system are being flushed out with greenbacks. Short term carry trade between the central banks. Backdoor QE3. Stockmarket back on the feedbucket.

I don't see new lower lows for the euro while this usd liquidity is being provided to ECB, and that program is scheduled to extend til the end of the year. Ranging, 1.32 - 1.37, per my original vote...
Interesting analysis. Have to think that one over for a bit. The monthly candle for October is basically no where, meaning that perhaps the initial injection was nothing more than enough to stop the trend.

Uncle Ben has a lot of politicians gunning for the Fed right now, and that will continue not only through the election, but if Obama is defeated, I think you can expect the next President and Congress to examine the dual mandate of the Fed and certainly something closer to transparency than Fed Bankers would like. Anything that smells of QE is gonna get his butt chewed out when he testifies before Congress. So I expect him to lay low and try to be as invisible as possible, though he just can't help himself at times as he commutes from his home on Mars.

Until he can either claim some successes to validate his mandate, or until it becomes clear Obama is finished and with him the economic headwinds of his policies, I am not sure the Fed is going to get too chippy. It might even be that the Fed will pull back and let Obama sink so they can blame him. No one wants to be wrong, and since the Fed carries on regardless of who the President is, a scape goat for why Fed actions didn't work might be what they would want. They may not be politicians officially, but they certainly act like them at times.

Could he be thinking the best thing that can happen for Europe is massive inflation to make those dollars they just loaned the ECB worth more in relation, and thus pack more punch? Nothing like a 20% move on the value of the currency to do that. Whether the ultimate drop to closer to 1.20 happens this month, next month, or next year who knows, but the macro picture just doesn't have much love for Europe's economy.

Still, range bound trading between 1.30 and 1.35 I will buy for a $1.
  • #1,136
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:06pm Oct 7, 2011 2:06pm
Well it's time to go eat now. I will check back in later.

Stay focused everybody. Don't let your emotions get the best of you.

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,137
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:07pm Oct 7, 2011 2:07pm
I'm done for the day... Hopefully price can break 1.336 by today. See you guys Monday and may the pips be with you!
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #1,138
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:10pm Oct 7, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Anyone who opened longs today is long squeezed out and whoever is still in will probably not have an opportunity to get out without a loss.

I feel for them but it goes to show you that it never pays to doubt the underlying fundamentals.

Never fight the trend because the market can keep fighting you for much longer than you can keep funding your account.

Now Monday may be a different story but we're not there yet. I just focus on the now and project where I feel things will go. 4 to 12 hours at a time.

.
LTCM
I think just the same way PT.. 4-12 at a time..

But I don't think ppl realized the "above expectations jobs data" scam..
The expectations were based on "0" of last month.. Those expectations were wrong, b/c data revised up.
Its like the concept of conditional probability vs. probability in econometrics. :nerd:

Conditional on "0" expectations were low, so data was beyond expectations. But it has revised up,so the expectaions would be revised too, so the data is not surprisingly above the corrected expectations..

and back in the day I learned trading stocks from manipulators. this data revision scam is a perfect set up for inviting buyers to sell off your stuff if you are a sophisticated big big trader..
  • #1,139
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:30pm Oct 7, 2011 2:30pm
DJIA up 75 in hour before close, usd getting sold, not a bearish sign. Downgrade moves being faded.

I bet on more sunshiney verbal intervention from the talking heads after weekend powwow. If Greece is to be cut loose most of the sages think that Cannes G-20 1st week of November would be the time to spring that news. If.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,140
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:36pm Oct 7, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting The Fool
DJIA up 75 in hour before close, usd getting sold, not a bearish sign. Downgrade moves being faded.

I bet on more sunshiney verbal intervention from the talking heads after weekend powwow. If Greece is to be cut loose most of the sages think that Cannes G-20 1st week of November would be the time to spring that news. If.
opportunity to add to shorts..
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