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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #1,101
  • Oct 7, 2011 10:51am Oct 7, 2011 10:51am
Quoting BullsVsBears
Aint she just sooo perty
I asked for an h4 , God gave me a daily candle.
I asked for a date, got a porn star for the weekend!
  • #1,102
  • Oct 7, 2011 10:51am Oct 7, 2011 10:51am
Quoting BullsVsBears
Aint she just sooo perty
The day is not over yet. Don't jinx it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,103
  • Oct 7, 2011 10:53am Oct 7, 2011 10:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
I want to see gold way down cheap before I even consider it. I don't usually trade metals but gold is becoming very attractive at a price below 1500. Makes me nervous though. I wold be more comfortable at 1300
I'm usually the same i was bearish at 1800 and got out at 1550 thinking it was the floor but its looking as those its not. I wont commit to any trade that just has too much uncertainty its verging on gambling.. If it goes to 1300 it definitely would be a bargain and possibly a fortune to be made! But for now im married to brent and my euro shorts. Brent is starting to hold its own again gimme 106 before the close
  • #1,104
  • Oct 7, 2011 10:54am Oct 7, 2011 10:54am
Quoting drtorque
And if we got weekly candle looking more like doji star... It would make me sleep better during weekend
  • #1,105
  • Oct 7, 2011 10:55am Oct 7, 2011 10:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
I want to see gold way down cheap before I even consider it. I don't usually trade metals but gold is becoming very attractive at a price below 1500. Makes me nervous though. I wold be more comfortable at 1300
Soros is the man

@$800 he said Gold is a bubble but Im gonna buy it, it'll go up.
@ $1600 Sold it..

how can you go into something knowing that its a bubble, no fundamental, thats a trader...
  • #1,106
  • Oct 7, 2011 10:59am Oct 7, 2011 10:59am
Quoting ntrprz
Yes, that was this weeks lesson hard learned. Which is why a 5% move wasn't enough like it was in stocks, going to have to revise broader percentages with smaller increments.
there are some folks around here who trade the levels (@nanningbob) and claim to do well with it. If you have some good ranging conditions then it will work - but there is so much volatility lately, I see it as a less than ideal way to trade. But - To each his own.

Personally, I like to have my full line ready to throw down when some sht hits the fan and an opportunity for a major move presents itself - not being stuck in some averaging out scheme. But thats just me.

Good luck, amigo, and just keep em small til you figure things out.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,107
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:01am Oct 7, 2011 11:01am
Quoting drtorque
Soros is the man

@$800 he said Gold is a bubble but Im gonna buy it, it'll go up.
@ $1600 Sold it..

how can you go into something knowing that its a bubble, no fundamental, thats a trader...
Amen !!!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,108
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:02am Oct 7, 2011 11:02am
Quoting Blobik
And if we got weekly candle looking more like doji star... It would make me sleep better during weekend
If they buy a little , I wanna add to shorts
  • #1,109
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:03am Oct 7, 2011 11:03am
Bearish engulfing on 4HR and closed below 1.341 support... I'm 100% sure trend is back on schedule.. But I wont jinx it PT ---POKER FACE
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #1,110
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:07am Oct 7, 2011 11:07am
No correlation between eur/usd and Brent. Things are looking good
  • #1,111
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:12am Oct 7, 2011 11:12am
Price action keeps hammering away at 1.3395 but it's being stubborn. It if can just break through, we will all sleep better this weekend.

UPDATE: It just broke through
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,112
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:16am Oct 7, 2011 11:16am
Quoting Blobik
Keep my fingers crossed

In fact, right now I am suffering from the second greatest traders problem - the fear. If I left my sell limits as they were, I would be close to 0 now. But, I didn't. If we get below 1.3395, I will achieve temporary state called "well balanced mentally". Hopefully this will help me get back to my '0' account state, and perhaps make a few days off. Or, play on the demo just to release whole enthusiasm. On the other hand, If sth goes wrong, I will have to go back to demo Either way, seems I will soon stop using...
I saw Piptrader recommended using live micro-accounts to learn with. That is working for me. There's no point in losing more than we have to while learning.

Once we're consistently positive, compounding will take care of the account size and allow us to grow used to larger positions gradually.

Wanted to thank Piptrader for the excellent room. It's helping me become more aware of the big picture. Attached chart shows a trade I probably wouldn't have had if I wasn't in here.

Been scalping all week, but watching the daily candles creep up to the descending TL. Got over 100pips on a quick drop. All closed out now and going to enjoy the weekend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20111006 eurusd.gif Size: 89 KB
  • #1,113
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:17am Oct 7, 2011 11:17am
hey friend, i am here just like you invited me.


fundamentally the fiber looks still bearish, the only thing that can reverse this is HELI (Helicopter Ben Bernanke)

the NFP came back better than expected, but still pretty weak we need 250k jobs to be added but alas better than 0.

interest rates are already low and will be through 2013 with operation twist to flatten the curve as to promote longer term borrowing,

i do not see much HELI can do at this point, maybe stop paying out interest to bank reserves


in any case, although it is true that china is a manipulator so are we and trade wars are not recommended at this point the yuan has appreciated 30% already, we should leave panda in peace. how about the arabs what is our trade deficit to them in dependence of oil?


as long as the USD holds steady we are going down on the EURO, i would say 1.30 is not so far off.

i think in stead of insentives and big bail outs, what we need to do is stop so much red tape regulations of small buisiness, and lower taxes and fees on business creators, and in turn cut the deficit to balance dollar liquidity in the system.

maybe a flat tax across the board and stop so much welfare shit to corp and to "suposedly poor" people that do not want to work.

welfare is humanitarian when used properly, parasitic when abused.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #1,114
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:20am Oct 7, 2011 11:20am
Quoting pipppindog
I saw Piptrader recommended using live micro-accounts to learn with. That is working for me. There's no point in losing more than we have to while learning.

Once we're consistently positive, compounding will take care of the account size and allow us to grow used to larger positions gradually.

Wanted to thank Piptrader for the excellent room. It's helping me become more aware of the big picture. Attached chart shows a trade I probably wouldn't have had if I wasn't in here.

Been scalping all week, but watching the daily candles creep up to the...
Another good way to feel the real thing and make good profits is half lots. You get the real emotional feel and make real money with less risk. It worked for me. Try it!
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #1,115
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:21am Oct 7, 2011 11:21am
http://pragcap.com/resources/underst...onetary-system

check it out nice read

in fiat currency with floating exchange rates and elastic money supply macro economics are different than keynesian, or austrian school.

but to the ECB which is not a CENTRAL BANK as the FED is due to its fragmentation, and it has to answer to Bundesbank and other national banks, it creates the money but it is not he monopoly manipulator and creator of the fiat currency so the Euro acts like gold.

trade imbalances among the EZ nations, allocate resources and drain the trade deficit nation from revenue, bonds are purchased to borrow money.

the Dollar is not that way. the US can NEVER default on its obligations and taxation does NOT give revenue to the US and BONDS ARE NOT purchased to borrow money, the US is NEVER revenue constrained it can and does simply print money out of thin air.

now the way it works is by debits and credits, taxation is a debit to the system, soaks up liquidity and BOND purchases soak up liquidity from target reserves. the problem with the US deficit is INFLATION as more credits enter the system with less debits.SO A BALANCE does need to exist.

but the FED and treasury department in effect act as one, dictating monetary policy and money expansion interest rate targets.

the ECB is not like the fed EFSF and ECB answer to the national banks of the EZ. price stability is their number one mandate. and cannot manipulate the currency as they see fit because fiscal policy cannot be dictated to sovereign countries.
__________________
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #1,116
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:21am Oct 7, 2011 11:21am
I'm thinking... maybe I should go long on the Euro to get the swap...what are you guys doing?

edit: joking
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #1,117
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:23am Oct 7, 2011 11:23am
having these downgrade announcements come out Friday well BEFORE the bell is suspicious to me. as if to allow some positioning before the close...and with high level crisis talks over the weekend....just smells a little. so I'll be flat, as I usually am anyway. But I wouldn't count on a gap down come Monday...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,118
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:24am Oct 7, 2011 11:24am
Quoting pipppindog
I saw Piptrader recommended using live micro-accounts to learn with. That is working for me. There's no point in losing more than we have to while learning.(...)
Yes, I will certainly look for a broker that allows microlots soon. Right now I am using only the smallest amount allowed by my broker, but it seems that it is way to much.

Right now I am using one of Polish brokers, since I live in Poland. I don't know any brokers in Poland that allow microlots... Guess I will have to start looking among foreign brokers.

Right now I am getting the better the lower we go
  • #1,119
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:24am Oct 7, 2011 11:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
Amen !!!
He can do it cause he can move markets...especially metals.

Gold will be too attractive in the 1500 levels...thats why a floor was established in the 1600. It will fall as the Euro falls though. Since margin calls will cause moves out of metals. Then shortly thereafter you may see it retest the 1925 level. When currencies look as glim as they do now, I have a hard time not being long on Gold or Silver. Look at what China is doing. Follow the money.
  • #1,120
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:25am Oct 7, 2011 11:25am
Price is sitting at 38% fib, if we can break it we can get a dark cloud or engulfing on the daily. Fundies and technicals are confluent pointing to a strong down trend
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
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